back-lay-trade-horses-football

I think I will plump for relative safety today.

*****ONE A DAY 745pm - Volendam v Emmen - back over 1.5 goals at 1.13*****

I am hoping that the head to heads, as well as recent home and away goalscoring totals will bring the goals this evening.

Fenerbahce look tradeable today too.
There are any number of niggles with the horses - chase fences being the main niggle.

A look yesterday and you would have seen big priced winners throughout, in a very difficult day. Fionnegas did not place and I did not put up as a one a day thankfully as I was put off my the shorter distance, heavy ground, beginners chase, and long absence.

Copenhagen scored 2 in the first half and that 1.23 did look great for a team with 10/11 games over 1.5 goals.

6pm - Fenerbahce v Bucaspor - 1.25 home -IN RUNNING - 3 losses in last 12 in all competitions for Fenerbahce.Have lost their last 2 matches ( one was a cup match).
Fenerbahce are unbeaten at home. WWDWDW at home for Fener this season is quite good form.
WDLLDLDLLD for Bucaspor - have won only 1 in last 10 matches in the league. So we have a team who are unbeaten at home against a team who have not won in their last 9.
DDLLDL away from home.All of Bucaspor's draws away from home have been against bottom 3 sides and losses all against higher sides away. A 1-0 away loss to Bursapor ( 2nd) may be a sign that they could be tough to break down until finally capitulating.
Bucaspor are a promoted side who should get beaten by the more established Fenerbahce surely?

745pm - Volendam v Emmen - 1.34 home - IN RUNNING - 2nd against 15th ( of 18).DWWDWW in head to heads for Volendam( latest last) - 6,6,4,6,7,4 -the number of goals scored in head to heads over the 6 most recent matches.
Volendam are unbeaten this season .5 game winning streak and have won 8 of last 9 matches.
6 wins and a draw at home.
Emmen have only won 2 of last 11 in the league.LDWDLLD away from home. A win and 2 draws in their last 3 matches, but have lost away to 3 of the top 9 teams they have played so far.
1.13 over 1.5 goals and 1.4 over 2.5 goals. Dare we risk the higher?
The match is tradeable so over 2.5 goals is worth risking as a trader only.

1230 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bobs Worth, 6/1 Sire De Grugy, Violin Davis, 7/1 George Nympton, Pere Blanc, 14/1 Bach To Back, Captain Sully, 16/1 Bad Sir Brian, Calusa Shadow, 20/1 Calusa Catrina, Quiet Whisper, 25/1 Smart Freddy, 33/1 Reinriver, 40/1 Beau Colonel, Salto Angel, 66/1 Sebennytos, 200/1 Patrick Dee.

DIOMED VERDICT: With George Nympton poor this season, it looks best to turn to the hurdling newcomers. BOBS WORTH is the pick ahead of Sire De Grugy, Pere Blanc and Violin Davis.

A price gapper 4/6 - - - 5/1 , a course and distance winner and has only had 2 flat bumper runs. Another hurdle debutant who is favourite on reputation alone . Geraghty/Henderson is a potent combination.
There are only 3 horses under 12/1 and only 5 under 20/1.
17 runners and a hurdles debutant the negatives.

100 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Dee Ee Williams, 100/30 Oddshoes, 9/2 Quasar D´Oudairies.

DIOMED VERDICT: DEE EE WILLIAMS is about 20lb ahead of the other two on hurdles form and is given another chance in this second attempt to launch a chasing career.

Novice chase this one and a clear case of hit and hope. There are 3 horses and 2 places so the probability is that your selection will place in the first 2 rather than not.
Of course, default to the favourite at 4/9 currently. Last 5 races have been hurdles for Dee. We saw with Fionnegas yesterday, that beginners/novices over the larger obstacles may not run as their price dictates. Fionnegas fell yesterday at the first.

120 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Teaforthree, 7/4 Alpine Breeze, 8/1 Be My Deputy, Whitewater Dash, 10/1 Duneen Point, 16/1 Top Benefit, 33/1 Front Street.

DIOMED VERDICT: C&D winner Alpine Breeze looks open to further progress but TEAFORTHREE has some strong bumper form and should build on a promising hurdling debut at Chepstow with the step up to 3m likely to suit.

With Alpine Breeze a winner last twice, and shouldering a penalty, does Teaforthree not strike you as a ready alternative? Novice hurdlers so l plates on.

130 KEMPTON
ETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Banjaxed Girl, 2/1 Carole´s Legacy, 7/2 Amber Brook, 10/1 Santera, 25/1 Love Of Tara, Parlesotho.

DIOMED VERDICT: Amber Brook may well have to settle for minor honours again faced with BANJAXED GIRL and Carole's Legacy.

Only 3 under 14/1 here - will these 3 dominate? Banjaxed Girld and Carole's legacy, it is hoped , will dominate.

These 2 cannot really be split, but Banjaxed is the one whose price is shortening.

145 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tayarat, 7/2 Marodima, 11/2 Josephine Malines, 6/1 Motarjm, 7/1 Hadron Collider, 8/1 Swiss Art, 20/1 Twill, 100/1 Tracy Road.

DIOMED VERDICT: The form principals Marodima and Tayarat may end up cutting each other's throats. JOSEPHINE MALINES, who has form in a strongly run race, may be able to pick up the pieces.

A claiming hurdle. Tayarat has 81 lbs in hand on official ratings - wow!!!
It is Josephine Malines who is the biggest mover into 4/1 with Tayarat the other significant shortener , all red and 6/4
8 runners and 3 places makes this interesting.

215 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mud Monkey, 11/2 Master Somerville, 6/1 Holmwood Legend, 15/2 Pacha D´Oudairies, 12/1 Magnetic Pole, 20/1 Adajal, El Distintivo.

DIOMED VERDICT: MUD MONKEY won well at Huntingdon on Saturday and a similar performance would obviously make him very hard to beat. If the 6yo fails to fire, Holmwood Legend may be the one to take advantage.

Only ran 2 days ago. A big price gapper but it this run coming too soon?

250 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Phidippides, 100/30 Celticello, 12/1 Sandynow, 33/1 Gentleman Anshan, 66/1 Shoudhavenownbettr, 100/1 Harry Oscar, Youandme.

DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to get away from PHIDIPPIDES following a chasing debut which was full of promise. Celticello is the one most likely to profit from any misadventures.

The significant market mover is Sandynow into 5/1 .This is clearly a 3 horse race for 2 places. If you want a better pay out, then choose between Celticello and Sandynow ( who not must enter calculations as he looks as if he is backed today).
Phid has had the important run over chase fences and a good 2nd.
Lots of positives about Phidippides last run
"With this run out the way, he can really kick on and should have little trouble going one better before being upped in grade. It would beno surprise to see him contest something like the Grade 1 Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day and end up going down the RSA route."

300 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kilcrea Kim, 9/2 Vivarini, 11/2 Stormyisland Ahead, 13/2 Counting House, 8/1 Native Taipan, 10/1 Salontyre, 12/1 Pearl, 16/1 Doubletoilntrouble.

DIOMED VERDICT: KILCREA KIM is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles, looks the most promising member of the field and can defy top weight on his handicap debut.

Bigger price gapper in the live betting market. A winner over heavy last time so soft should be no problems.
Evens - - - 7/1 in the live market is compelling.
Big market mover in Doubletoilntrouble into 8/1.
8 horses and 3 places

345 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Marino Prince, 4/1 Tocatchaprince, 13/2 Holyrood, 10/1 Frosty´s Gift, Le Roi Max, 12/1 Watergate, 16/1 Catholic Hill, Won More Night, 20/1 Raspbary, 25/1 Dalrymple.

DIOMED VERDICT: MARINO PRINCE is preferred to Tocatchaprince of the sudden improvers but Holyrood is potentially of a similar mould and Frosty's Gift also merits attention off a feather weight.