back-lay-trade-horses-football: 24/11

Conditional jockeys claiming hurdle, class 6 2 year old maiden, and beginners chase. All have outstanding opportunities but the race types mean that there would be no surprises were the principles to falter.

It is the football for me that interests, and I would choose either a lay of Rangers or over 1.5 goals in the Spurs v Werder Bremen match.

*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Tottenham v W Bremen - back over 1.5 goals at 1.17*****
Werder need to win which will aid goals here and these 2's recent ( 12 matches) form overall and at home/away respectively makes a strong case.

Profitable but disappointing. ( a nice enhanced bet though with Zilina scoring first) I flagged up the relative weakness of the Dutch top flight and , after seeing the Real Madrid team, their over evens was an early Christmas present.
Honved too, nailed Espi. I did the research, they scored 2 and conceded none with 10 players in the first leg so why did I not follow this up?
The odds!! Stupid fecker!! I should always back my opinion above that of the market.

745pm - Inter v Twente - 1.66 home - unlike the Chelsea match yesterday, this is a must win for Inter Milan this evening. I hope I argued adequately yesterday that teams like Ajax and Twente can look excellent domestically, but the shallowness of the Dutch top flight leaves them exposed to the best Europe has to offer.
LDDLL in last 5 for Inter means they are in poor form.
DLL for Twente in their last 3.
Dare we trust the fact Inter must win? The Fat Spanish Waiter is having a problem emulating the Special One.

745pm - Panathinaikos v Barcelona - 1.36 away - unbeaten in their last 12 and a 4 game winning streak. My concern is the fact Barca seem to not be bothered about winning away from home in the Champions league. They should have beaten Copenhagen and Rubin Kazan away. Copenhagen scored 2 away at Panathanaikos in the Champions League.
I cannot see Barca losing, and am aware of their future commitments regarding Real Madrid. This should ensure a change on personnel. Will Barca score first? If so , then this 1.36 is eminently tradable.

745pm - Rangers v Man Utd - 1.77 away - I cannot see United losing this against a team in a much weaker league who were handed a present when Fergie picked his team for the home leg using a sheet of names, and a pin.
Surely a little more respect this evening? Laying Rangers at 5.8 is around a 1.19 / 1.20 back bet.
United are yet to concede in qualifying - a mighty stat for the layer of an injury hit Rangers.
Decent enough home form sees a draw against Valencia and a win v Bursaspor. But remember when laying we are covering the draw for extra insurance.
United are unbeaten in their last 12 matches, and it probably goes longer ( my website only goes back 12 matches)
Unbeaten in last 11 matches away from home. LAst loss was in a pointless friendly v Chivas when Hernandez played in Chivas's team in the first half and United in the 2nd half.

Remember that loss v Hibs recently at home (3-0 loss) - this may be a signal that Rangers are feeling a little tired with their current schedule. It all points to , in these eyes, a draw or Man Utd win this evening.

745pm - Tottenham v W Bremen - 1.48 home
10 of Werder's 12 away matches have been over 2.5 goals with one of the remaining 2 1-1.
This stat is typical of Werder Bremen historically.
4,0,6,2,5,3,5,2,3,4,4,5 - total goals scored in last 12 matches for Werder.( latest first)
4,6,3,5,2,4,4,4,0,4,5,4 -total goals scored in last 12 away matches for Werder (latest first)
5,6,2,6,4,2,2,7,3,3,5,1 - total goals scored in last 12 matches for Spuds ( latest first)
6,2,4,2,3,5,4,1,4,0,5 - total goals scored in last 12 home matches for Spuds ( latest first)

Quite a powerful argument for neutral goals betting here?
Werder are in poor form because they are in the midst of an injury crisis.

Good news for goals backers is that Werder have to win to stand any chance of going through.
1.48 is tempting for the trader this evening as surely Spurs can score or at least lead at some stage?

745pm - Valencia v Bursaspor - 1.24 home - shortest price of the day in the Champions League.
Bursaspor were exposed by Man Utd in their defeat. Valencia won 4-0 away from home and surely can continue this evening with home advantage.

Bursaspor have only won 3 of their last 12, 1-0 defeats away to United and Rangers ( home defeat by United far greater - 3-0)

1220 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 National Trust, 5/1 Corlande, 11/2 Calfraz, 6/1 Sundae Best.

DIOMED VERDICT: Another change of surroundings is the only reason to be wary about NATIONAL TRUST because conditions are fine and he has plenty in hand on figures.

National Trust now into 1/3 in a 4 horse race for 2 places.
Has won on soft ground but has a condistional jockey up today ( as do the 3 others to be fair)

120 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sweet Irony, 4/1 Palace Jester, 11/2 Bold Sir Brian, 13/2 Rupert Lamb, 8/1 Eagle Owl, 12/1 Fairynuff, 16/1 Artic Night, Sheepclose, 20/1 Barnack, 33/1 Errington, Jack The Gent, 50/1 Nothing Ventured, 66/1 Aitch Factor, Congella, Don´t Call Harry, 100/1 Hidden In Time, Some Catch, 200/1 Fred Grass.

DIOMED VERDICT: SWEET IRONY shaped well enough on his hurdling debut to earn the vote over Palace Jester.

Price gapper in a big field but only 4 of the 18 runners are under 14/1 and 6 are under 33/1.
Palace jester has been nibbled at

125 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Alaivan, 11/4 Leblon, 3/1 Son Amix, 12/1 Mighty Whitey, 20/1 Red Cert, 50/1 Cuchullain.

3 under 20/1 should be fighting for the 2 places in this listed hurdles race. Soft/heavy ground

205 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 By Implication, 5/1 Around The Clock, Club Oceanic, 7/1 Hawaafez, 10/1 Durante Alighieri, Igitur, Mayfair Lad, Unbeatable, 12/1 Apple Dumpling, 16/1 Passion Play, 20/1 Runaway Tiger, 25/1 Last Act.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race full of unknown quantities but the one who appeals most is the well-bred AROUND THE CLOCK. His sire has made a fine start at stud and the surface should suit.

A huge market move for Club Oceanic into 11/10, all red and shortening. Someone seriously fancies this one to improve significantly . 11/10 - - - - -5/1 for this maiden. George Baker onboard and you could not ask for a more experienced jockey.

9 debutants and 3 one time outers make this a case of having faith in the betting market as there is little else to go on.

225 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Local Hero, 9/2 Ibn Hiyyan, 5/1 Dhaafer, 7/1 Tatispout, 9/1 Plus Ultra, 10/1 Verluga, 12/1 Beneath, Wolf Rock, 50/1 Penshurst Lad.

DIOMED VERDICT: LOCAL HERO looks the type who could carve a career over hurdles and was certainly progressive on the Flat. Tatispout will appreciate the drop in class and may be the main threat.

Another interesting race - 9 runners , 4 under 16/1 and 5 under 25/1
Local Hero is a debutant and now 10/11 and Dhaafer is another mover but this is a maiden hurdle.

300 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Aberdale, 13/8 Silent Cliche, 25/1 Ramborob, 40/1 Columbus Secret.

DIOMED VERDICT: ABERDALE can make his previous experience over fences count, though Silent Cliche looks of similar ability on hurdles form and should make a chaser.

I don't need to tell you about beginners chases - the clue is in the title so natural risks come with betting here. Looks, quite obviously, a 2 horse race for 2 places. Clear rounds will suffice of course.
Aberdale has chase fence experience and Silent Cliche has the soft ground experience. 3 mile 1 furlongs a long distance for beginner chasers.

605 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prince Of Burma, 9/4 Flying Power, 6/1 Blue Maisey, 10/1 Irie Ute, 12/1 Suspender Belt, 20/1 Cristaliyev, 25/1 Dixie Gwalia, Polish Sunset, 50/1 Miss Maudie, 100/1 Bernie´s Tune.

DIOMED VERDICT: PRINCE OF BURMA made a promising debut here in a stronger race than main rival Flying Power contested last time and normal improvement should see him hard to beat.