Porto looks rock solid today with a speculative trader's bet of 1.49 over 2.5 goals. If Porto continue their free scoring, they could replicate the 5-0 v Benfica last match or the 4 PSV scored yesterday ( when 1.14 too)
The 145 Cheltenham is between 2 horses it is hoped - -follow the market or go with the bigger priced of the 2?
*****6pm - Sporting Gijon v Real Madrid - back Real Madrid in the match odds at 1.35. Also, back 0-0 correct score at odds of 21 for enough stake that if it is 0-0 , you will win the stake put on Real MAdrid.*****
A far less worrisome alternative is Porto this evening for those who find the above a little too complicated.
Easy win for PSV with an enhanced bet thrown in after Excelsior took the lead after 5 minutes. PSV were then backable at 1.48.
2pm - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.3 away - Rangers returned to winning ways yesterday as they needed to. Celtic also lost mid week ( what a coincidence!!) 4,4,3,2 the goals scored by Celtic in last 4 head to heads. The 2 were scored away from home.
WWWWWL in their away matches, and to be honest this loss was not as unexpected as Rangers was. They were nearly 1.6 away mid week to Hearts.
A 3-1 home loss to Rangers recently is a good sighter for what Celtic should be capable of. Interestingly all of Rangers goals were scored in the 2nd half, so Celtic may meet some early resistance today.
WLW for St Mirren in last 3 matches ( the loss was the aforementioned Rangers match).
Sign of a recovery?
DWLDWL has some pattern to it for St Mirren at home. Were this sequence to continue today, a draw would be expected.
A must win really for Celtic today given Rangers had 1 point over them when the teams were equal games played.
410pm - Chelsea v Sunderland - 1.24 - -ultra reliable at home. I was ruing the choice of Rangers over Chelsea mid week given their imperious home form.4/4 in head to heads last 4 matches, scoring 7 (home), 3,3,5(home).
Chelsea , it would seem, enjoy playing the Black Cats.
A win today takes them 6 points clear of a stuttering Man United.
6,2,4,2,2,1 the goals scored at home this season. The 1 was against a stubborn Fulham and not too surprising.
Chelsea are only dropping points away from home this season. This will need to continue ( by which I mean winning their home matches) if they want the title.
When you look at Sunderland, all you see is a predominance of draws.
DLWDDDDDWLWD this season . In the midst of all the draws, it is important to note that Sunderland have only lost 2 .
LDDDLD away from home. Tough opponents therefore away from home. This could mean a change of tack to trading if Chelsea lead at any stage for fear of a draw.
0-0, 1-1, 1-0 win against 3 of the provisional top 4 ( albeit at home - yet to play them away)
Chelsea will go 10 games without conceding if they, erm, do not concede today. This could replicate the Fulham match and be a single goal victory .
6pm - Gijon v Real Madrid - 1.35 away - -2 points in it at the top, and Mourinho needs to win to go top by a point.5 wins on the trot now for Real,with 6, 4 (away),6,3(away),2 scored by Real.
WDLWD for Sporting Gijon at home. Another sequence which would, ideally for Real backers, continue with an L for loss.
The one home loss came v Valencia - 0-2 and should be replicated by Real Madrid especially in their current form.
615pm - Benfica v Naval - 1.22 home - 3rd and a full 10 points behind Porto.LWWWW at home this season and gone are the huge numbers of goals scored of last season. 3 of Benfica's 6 wins have been 1-0 which is in stark contrast.
WLLLL away from home. Bottom basement side.1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses.
On 3 occasions away from home, Naval have conceded 3 goals. My concern is Benfica's loss of goalscoring prowess. But this could be compensated for with the fact their opponents are in dire form.
815pm - Porto v Portimonense - 1.13 home - WWWWW at home and WWWWWWDWWW in the league this season.
Porto lost an imperious home win record against Besiktas BUT did score first ( as I predicted doing the analysis for a trade).
3,3,2,5,5 the goals scored by Porto at home this season in the league (latest last )
LDLLL away for Portimonense.
2 wins this term have come at home.
Have conceded 2,3,3,3,2 this season away from home and with Porto's shooting boots very much on, this could reflect similarly priced PSV yesterday ( they scored 4)
1.49 over 2.5 goals is big here ( surprisingly so).
Asian handicap starts at 2 and rises to 3 , indicating the market expects a 2,3,4 goal victory ( which neatly ties with 1.14 PSV yesterday)
Portimonense have lost away to all of the top 8 teams they have played.
1230 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Andhaar, 11/4 Bow Badger, 8/1 Taketimeout, 16/1 Fairynuff, Short Supply, 25/1 In The Sand, Meridiem.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ANDHAAR pulled clear with a Listed winner when scoring at Wetherby and could take some beating if proving as effective on forecast softer ground. Carlisle winner Bow Badger is the main danger on the figures. |
3 under 25/1 here should fight it out for the 2 places with a clear round. Andhaar and Bow Badger the ideal candidates IF handling soft ground.
105 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Noble Prince, 3/1 Realt Dubh, 7/1 Darceys Dancer, 8/1 Jigalo, 10/1 Gates Of Rome, 12/1 Save My Blushes.
Fav is now a significant non runner leaving Realt Dubh to take up the mantle of strong odds on favourite in his stead. 1.25 to place
125 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Jered, 7/4 Mr Warbucks, 9/2 New Phase, 13/2 Silver Friend, 10/1 Run For Sol, 25/1 Going Nowhere Fast, 33/1 Bob West, Moving On, 50/1 Beta Blocker, 66/1 Noble Media.
Jered is one of those horses who is very familar. A faller last time out in a class 1, more was expected of course. 1.21 to place
125 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Balzaccio, Evs Tullamore Dew, 33/1 Daring Approach, Zhukov, 50/1 Bold Pioneer,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Not much between Balzaccio and TULLAMORE DEW on their official hurdle ratings but the latter, who showed improved form at Cheltenham in March, may be better equipped to cope with this ground. |
Originally 2 under 33/1 here in the betting forecast, and now a hugely significant non runner in Balzaccio puts Tullamore Dew in the driving seat. 1/7 , has run on soft and heavy but a beginner to chase fences. Trust him? IS he a Royal Charm, or a Medermit/Celestial Halo when it comes to these bigger chase fences? 1.23 to win and 1.11 to place.
145 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Forpadydeplasterer, 7/4 Tataniano, 6/1 Oh Crick, 10/1 Mahogany Blaze, 20/1 Gauvain, 25/1 Chaninbar, Oiseau De Nuit.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FORPADYDEPLASTERER has a great chance in receipt of 5lb from last season's leading novice Tataniano, who is the only other one with serious Champion Chase hopes. |
Tough to split the front 2 here, but the market has given Tataniano the resounding thumbs up here - all red, 11/10 and shortening all morning. 1.4 and 1.5 to place these 2 in a 2 the place race. Nice odds which do reflect an absence to overcome and a high class field. 6 of these 7 runners are course and distance winnners!!
Both of the principals are experienced chasers at the highest level, and despite absences to overcome, should be reliable betting propositions with a clear round of course ( and their form suggests a solidity in jumping.
340 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bubbly Bruce, 4/1 Cap Elorn, 6/1 Amirico, 8/1 Balustrade, 9/1 Take Me Out, 11/1 Bentley Brook, 12/1 Double Whammy, 33/1 Ballyegan, 40/1 Jack The Soldier, 50/1 Colonel Alf, 66/1 Noir Noir,
| DIOMED VERDICT: BUBBLY BRUCE will set a useful standard if transferring his good bumper form to hurdles and is readily preferred in an ordinary race. |
Only mentioned as there are now only 7 runners left for the 3 places, and the original price gapper market leader remains. Not run over hurdles though so we need to have faith in the market. 1.14 to place.
SHORTLIST
2pm - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.3 away - 2 away losses on the trot for Celtic? I cannot envision it especially when returned to their usual odds. IN RUNNING.
410pm - Chelsea v Sunderland - 1.24 - this looks a good candidate for a back of Chelsea with a 0-0 insurance bet as Sunderland are likely to put up some stubborn resistance a la Fulham.
6pm - Gijon v Real Madrid - 1.35 away - look reliable betting mediums especially now they have got their goal groove on.
815pm - Porto v Portimonense - 1.13 home looks solid. Over 2.5 goals a little more speculative as it may rely on Porto but at 1.49 is very interesting ( and better approached as a trade)
125 FONTWELL - Tullamore Dew is 1.23 to win and 1.11 to place - -chase debut on soft ground but so short because the market had 2 under 33/1 originally and the other horse is a non runner.
145 CHELTENHAM - 2 superb chasers here and the market has spoken strongly for Tataniano - follow said market? 1.4 to place and Forpadyis 1.5 to place - big prices.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Gijon v Real Madrid - 1.35 away - just look like reliable betting mediums. Must be noted though that the only points dropped have been away for Real MAdrid. A win takes them top tonight.
0-0 in October 2009 away to Gijon reflects the shut outs v Levante and Mallorca. This makes a 0-0 insurance cover bet on the correct score market of great interest.At odds of 21 it will not cost much at all to back 0-0 correct score with sufficient stake to cover your stake on Real Madrid.
815pm - Porto v Portimonense - 1.13 home - looks standout albeit at a price which reflects this. Should win with ease and keep the home win record ( in the league) in tact. 1.49 over 2.5 goals for the traders looks to have some life in it.
145 CHELTENHAM would be the race I would take out of today. A case of following the market ( Tatatiano) or opting for a slightly bigger place only price on Forpadytheplasterer. 1.4 and 1.5 to place.
MULTIPLE
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http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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