11/11

A tough day for horse racing as I am unable to report accurately on the weather. Apparently it is rain and win at all venues and this means going changes. The 650 Wolves therefore takes on greater significance as it should not be affected by the weather as much as turf venues.

Football wise, the fact Ladbrokes go 1.16 about Getafe is compelling, given they are 1.29 on Betfair and for that reason I will chance them this evening. Their strong goalscoring form at home ( 4-1, 3-0, 3-0 before 3-1 loss to Barca) should mean that, with a decent side out, they should beat lowly Portugalete - 1-1 from away leg too is a good motivator if they want to progress to next round of Spanish Cup


*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Getafe v Portugalete - back Getafe in the match odds at 1.29 currently****
Please note this is in running so bets can be managed.







A poor decision in a day that should never have been a losing day - Rangers suddenly 1) do not score 2) lose at home for the first time 3) lose 3-0 to a team who they beat 3-0 only recently.

This was more galling by the sight of a very strong Real Madrid side yesterday. There were many more obvious selections yesterday and this was a real pity.

545pm - Ajax v Veendam - 1.08 home - 3-0 to a changed PSV yesterday when similarly priced. Expect an approximation of this today. Veendam have drawn their last 4 matches - all score draws 3-3, 3-3, 1-1, 2-2
Ajax are faltering a little with a 1-0 home defeat by ADO Den Haag last time out. Prior to this, they had a patch where they scored 4,3,2,2,3
The sight of Suarez this evening will be a welcome one.
Around 1.23 over 2.5 goals. This is Division 1 v Division 2.
PSV played a weakened side yesterday, will Martin Jol play a weakened side today?

7pm - Getafe v Portugalete - 1.3 home - generally the 1.3's in the Spanish Cup came good yesterday bar Ath Madrid who played with 10 men.
1-1 on 27th October , Getafe scored first. ASian handicap 1.5 goal start signals 2,3 goal win.

It all depends if Getafe take this seriously. At least they have the motivation , if they want to go through, that the first game is a draw so a win is a necessity.
In running. Getafe are on a 3 game losing run in all competitions including a 2 game home losing run. They will not want this kind of hatrick with a 3rd loss today.

8pm - Valencia v UD Logrones - 1.23 home - 3-0 on 27th October. Will they win at home like Sevilla and Barca who had already won their away legs, or relax like Ath Madrid who only drew?
The market thinks the latter with ASian handicap starting at 2 goals. Opponents are segunda b Grupo 2 division so it will be a shock should they win.

125 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Apt Manor, 9/4 Our Victoria, 11/2 Start Me Up, 8/1 Brog An Ri, 12/1 Ordinary Man, 14/1 Bruach Na Mara, 33/1 Mind That Turtle.

I have been following Apt Manor who is highly consistent and would have Ruby Walsh onboard today but for the latter's injury.

2 places only here and a worry that the ground is heavy more than soft with all the recent rain in Ireland. 2.14 to place is astounding here but must mean something - tight race? heavy ground? 2 places?

140 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Rebel Du Maquis, 13/8 Lake Legend, 9/1 Anquetta, 12/1 Double Dash, 20/1 Jocheski, 25/1 Abstract Art, 33/1 I´m In The Pink.

DIOMED VERDICT: REBEL DU MAQUIS may make his experience tell.

The unpredictability did not stop with Rangers yesterday as Medermit refused in his novice chase. Here is another Novice chase, and another strong favourite in Rebel du Maquis with Noel Fehily taking over from Ruby in the UK.
Only 4 horses under 25/1, this should be a 4 horse race for 2 places ( 7 runners) and now odds on, Rebel is the market fancy as I write.

Has chase experience.

210 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Dark Lover, 4/1 Ben Chorley, 15/2 Aine´s Delight, 16/1 Madame Jasmine, 20/1 Fun Guy, 25/1 Art Value, Attainable, Reefer Beefer, 33/1 Kilshanna.

DIOMED VERDICT: DARK LOVER has landed on a modest contest in which to make his hurdling debut. Fehily/Nicholls again with Dark Lover, 2 bumper runs and a hurdles debutant. Now into 2/5 and one of only 3 under 14/1 here. Faith in the market? 300 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rougham, 9/4 Sambulando, 11/4 Sway, 12/1 Border Castle, 25/1 Petrosian, 33/1 Mujamead. DIOMED VERDICT: Rougham could be hard to peg back if finding some fluency but it may be unwise to underestimate SAMBULANDO. Last season didn't go to plan but he remains an interesting chasing prospect. 3 horses under 16/1 should ideally fight out the 2 places here in this beginners chase. Rougham fell last month in a chase and Sambulando is yet to try chase fences in a race environment. Rougham is the market's fancy at 4/6 310 TAUNTON BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pennellis, 6/1 Raise Again, 7/1 Nothing Is Forever, 10/1 Shipboard Romance, Singapore Reef, 11/1 Consulate, Sun Quest, 12/1 Freddy´s Star, Society Venue, 14/1 Sweet World, 20/1 Stir On The Sea. DIOMED VERDICT: PENNELLIS is open to improvement and can take this on handicap debut. Another Fehily/Nicholls market leader and price gapper. Are they favs on merit or because it is Nicholls? 320 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Land And Sea, 5/1 Plenty O´Toole, 6/1 Olney Lass, 8/1 Kassiodor, 12/1 Hambleton, 33/1 Dorden, Lord Lansing, Majic Mojo, 66/1 King Bertolini, Little Buddy, Marsh´s Gift, Matilda May, Play The Blues. DIOMED VERDICT: Land And Sea sets the standard here but there may be more to come from OLNEY LASS and she gets the tentative vote this time. Huge price gapper here but , as ever with Southwell, newcomers here may not take to the surface. Barney Curley has Kassiodor. 330 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Just The Job, 5/1 Cool Bob, 9/1 No More Whispers, 10/1 Ramvaswani, 14/1 Mayor Of Kilcock. DIOMED VERDICT: JUST THE JOB will hard to get away from if turning out after yesterday's demolition job at Huntingdon. Cool Bob looks best of the others. You can't get much more recent form than yesterday and a 16 length win at Huntingdon. In the hands of amateur riders today and fancied again. 2 places. 400 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lieutenant Miller, 3/1 Egypt Mill Spirit, 9/2 Chasing Aces, 7/1 Forever Waining, 10/1 Drumlang, 11/1 Robello, 12/1 Automaticman, 16/1 Deciding Moment, 33/1 Hidden Springs, Midnight Charmer, 50/1 Summer De Baune, 66/1 Harry Masters, Midnight Dove, 100/1 Go To The Edge. DIOMED VERDICT: LIEUTENANT MILLER is expected to improve plenty on his debut form and may progress past Egypt Mill Spirit and Forever Waining.

Bumpers are generally at the behest of the market near race time but as I write Lieutenant Miller is 5/4 and strong market leader with Barry Geraghty riding and having already been out.

650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cheyne Walk, 3/1 Marrimeclaire, 5/1 Yensi, 6/1 No Rain, 8/1 Money Money Money, 16/1 Etoile Filante, 25/1 No Time For Tears, 66/1 Northern Champ, Sharp And Chic, 100/1 Devon Diva, Whispering Ridge.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHEYNE WALK is bred to be a fair bit better than the form standard set by Marrimeclaire.

A clear split in the market with 5 under 25/1 and 5 over 25/1. Marrimeclaire has 2 2nd places on the trot, including one over course and distance and so must be an obvious starting point. Cheyne Walk is a debutant.

SHORTLIST
545pm - Ajax v Veendam - 1.08 home - recent scoredraws mean Veendam could put up a fight this evening which would help goals at 1.24 for over 2.5 goals.
12th in the 2nd tier. A first team from Ajax should win comfortably. No team news on their website.

7pm - Getafe v Portugalete - 1.3 home - all to play for for the home side with a 1-1 away leg result. If they want it, they should win with ease given the gulf in the leagues. Tradeable too.

2/3 yesterday, at 1.3, won in the Spanish cup at home. Only Atl Madrid faltered , and they had a 5 goal advantage from away leg. No such advantage here.
Getafe's home form, prior to the visit of Barca, saw them score 4,3,3 and Portugalete are definitely inferior to those sides.

8pm - Valencia v UD Logrones - 1.23 home - 3-0 already - Sevilla battered opposition at home despite such an advantage yesterday. More fo the same for Valencia today? Right noises from management but 3 losses and a draw in last 4 matches in the league certainly must mean that the game against Getafe at the weekend is far more important than a Cup match where they are 3-0 up already?

125 CLONMEL - the place only market bears no resemblance to the win market in relative pricing. Apt Manor is 2.05 to place, and the favourite is 1.7 to place - our Victoria. It does signal that Apt manor faces heavier ground for the first time, and a new trip for the first time, but evens to place is very interesting.

140 TAUNTON - likely going change will throw a spanner in the works - good in the Racing Post but pouring with rain at Taunton. Rebel du Maquis is 1.25 to place and clearly fancied here but a worry re weather.

650 WOLVES - Marrimeclaire is 1.3 to place and has course form. Needs a look in the market nearer race time for this maiden. 5 under 16/1 so good probability chance the horse will place.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

I suspect the ground mentioned in the Racing Post today will not be the ground we see this afternoon at the venues. The strong winds too add another dimension, which makes betting at these venues more difficult and ideally approached race by race with TV pictures.

WIndy and rainy in Ireland too, but the place price for Apt manor is eye catchingly big but must represent some big negatives about the horse. Certainly it is very tradeable as I can see the evens dropping in running

The only real horse race I can take out of today is the 650 Wolves - 4 under 16/1 and Marrimeclaire as course form. 1.3 to place is reasonable but this is a terrible class ( 6) of race .

Football wise.
545pm - Ajax v Veendam - 1.08 home - 1.22 over 2.5 goals. Similarly priced sides all won 3-0 yesterday which is kind of limping over the 2.5 goal line which means that trading is a must here

7pm - Getafe v Portugalete - 1.3 home - 1-1 from first leg so any semblance of interest in the Cup should see a home win against this type of opposition particularly given strong 4,3,3 goalscoring winning form at home fot Getafe - if Ladbrokes make Getafe 1.16 to win, then this 1.29 at Betfair is a great price ( although it may hide info re weakened team - something I cannot vouch for at present, nor is their website viewable in English.

8pm - Valencia v UD Logrones - 1.23 home - 1.16 with Bet365 and 1.12 with ladbrokes.Ladbrokes are certainly not keen to take on these 2 sides. My concern with Valencia is that they have won already 3-0 and have a very important match on 14th in the league ( 3 losses and a draw in last 4) so may not be going for it.