back-lay-trade-horses-football: 4/11

2 of the Kempton horses of interest are debutants on the surface and , regardless of how solid they look on paper, if they don't handle the surface then they are shot.
Lively Baron would be my best horse bet of the day. From a footballing perspective, we have the obvious in PSV who really should be scoring 2 or 3 this evening, and Porto who are really the in form football team of the moment in Europe. Re-read their goal scoring exploits at home below, and note their 12/12 at home so far (could be more but my research only goes back 12) The 2/5 is slight concern for me as I would have Porto as far more solid. Do they need to win this match to progress? A perfect 9 from 9 means they are through so lack of motivation a factor in the price.
The Porto match I would only consider as a trade rather than as a bet.

*****805pm - PSV V DEBRECEN - Back PSV in the match odds at 1.15*****
I am hopeful for a comfortable evening this evening from PSV
Like I say, Porto is of great interest but with purely a trading head insisted upon.

0-0 half time but then Chelsea started motoring. Incidentally the lay , or proposed lay, of AC Milan would have worked like clockwork as Real scored first and the odds shot up to 15 to allow a trade. Again bettors who had laid and left would have sweated as AC were leading 2-1 until the final moments.

6pm - Juventus v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.44 home - surely Seria A has a lot more clout that the Austrian league? 4 draws and 2 wins in last 6 a slight concern for potential Juve backers includes a 1-1 v Red Bull.
3 score draws on the trot in the Euros, laterly 2 1-1 draws.
Red Bull have been beaten by Lech Poznan and Man City, and you would expect a strong Juve outfit to beat them at home? Tight asian handicap starts at +1
6pm - Leverkusen v Aris Thes. - 1.36 home - 0-0 in head to head not too surprising when a Greek side is involved. Home advantage expected to tell for Leverkusen.
Some collateral form - Rosenborg beat Aris 2-1 and Leverkusen beat Rosenborg 4-0 - this seems to tie in with the match odds quote for Leverkusen. Perhaps a 0-0 cover bet here given this is Greek opposition?
Leverkusen have only scored 2 in their last 4 matches which may be some slight blip?
805pm - PSV v Debrecen - 1.16 home - are Debrecen the "Zilina" of the Europa league? ASians start at +2 goals handicap which ties in to the 1.16 which indicates a 2,3,4 goal victory for PSV. 2-1 away win for PSV in head to heads.
3 losses so far for Debrecen in the Europa league, albeit tight enough recently - 2-1 and 1-0 .
Only one win in last 12 away matches for Debrecen was against Litex Lovech in a Europa League qualifier.
PSV's only loss in last 12 came at the hands of Twente (1-0 and not a shock as Twente, Ajax and PSV are the triumvirate in Holland)
24th October saw them get 10 at home against Feyenoord. When they get it on, they get it on!!
805pm - Porto v Besiktas - 1.44 home - Porto are the in form European team of the moment. 11 wins and a solitary draw in their last 12 ( and bear in mind I can only go back 12 matches in my research - that streak could be even better) - 3-1 easy away win over Besiktas makes the 1.44 very appealing - I would have expected it to be lower.
This 3-1 win over Besiktas came with 2 sendings off for Porto.
1 win in the last 6 for Besiktas is hardly signs of an "in form" team.
Perfect home record in last 12 and check out Porto's scoring per game - 5,4,2,3,3,4,3,2,2 in last 9 matches is very consistent.
I think this 1.44 is tradeable and that Porto should be able to score first to enable said trade.
805pm - Sevilla v Karpaty - 1.24 home - 1-0 away win for Sevilla in head to heads hardly earth shattering. Again home advantage means increased expectation. Karpaty are a Ukrainian side.

130 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Al Qeddaaf, 4/1 Quiet Whisper, 5/1 King Fingal, 7/1 Vico Road, 14/1 Attaglance, 20/1 Lyrical Intent, Tahiti Pearl, 33/1 Bob Jackson, 50/1 Mill Beattie, Sacco D´Oro.

DIOMED VERDICT: Jason Maguire can make a winning return to action aboard AL QEDDAAF (nap), who finally clicked at Hexham.

I love the combo of McCain jr and Maguire. Simple no nonsense and you can expect if they are on a fancy that said horse will place more often than not. Al Qeddaaf is one of only 4 under 10/1, one of only 6 under 20/1 and currently odds on. 231 in last 3 hurdles events, latterly a win under McCoy.

230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ritual, 7/1 Micky P, Titus Gent, 8/1 Di Stefano, Ivory Silk, 10/1 Even Bolder, 16/1 Yurituni, 20/1 Lujeanie, Pilgrim Dancer, 25/1 Fivefold,

DIOMED VERDICT: There looks to be plenty of pace in the race, and that should suit the improving 3yo RITUAL (nap).

Not quite a "Quick Wit" type price gap but it's a start for Ritual and we have the added benefit of Paul Hanagan who needs winners sharpish. My contention therefore is that , when given the opportunity that the betting suggests, that Mr Hanagan will indeed oblige and try to nail that Flat Jockeys Championship. evens - - - - - 11/2 in the live market. Slight concern that this horse is on a hatrick as multiple handicap winners will lose eventually as weight anchors.

315 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Style Of Campile, 11/4 Table Forty Six, 9/2 Magen´s Star, 13/2 Taralga, 12/1 Whats Up Britta, 14/1 Three Monkeys, 16/1 Coolharbour Breeze, Queen Andromache, Takasima, 25/1 Apalachicola, Miss Odetta, 33/1 Bee Fallon, Man Turk Lady, Nuggets Of Wisdom, Play The Wing, 50/1 Alvatar, Sarahs Lass, Tingamajig,

Fav was 2nd to Apt Manor recently and that should indicate an element of ability.

350 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Lively Baron, 9/2 Palace Jester, 6/1 Jam Tomorrow, 14/1 Original Prankster, The Portonion, 20/1 Robertewenutter, 25/1 Rester Vrai, 66/1 Dr Light.

DIOMED VERDICT: LIVELY BARON is hard to oppose after looking so good at Carlisle, especially with school reports so encouraging.

Another McCain jr/maguire partnership adds confidence to the price gap for Lively Baron in what is an ideal race for place only betting - 8 runner and 3 places and only 3 under 14/1

500 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Entitled, 9/2 Polly Floyer, 11/2 Sunset Kitty, 12/1 South African Gold, 33/1 Dolly Ann, 50/1 Dolly Will Do, Great Show, Rabbie Burns, Saremma, Woodwind.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for ENTITLED to end her run of second placings and she can get off the mark at the fourth attempt.

Another price gapper has Fallon onboard. 3 2nd places and last ran in August this year. First run at Lingfield - will the horse handle the all weather?
Only 4 horses under 25/1 here makes this a good probability race if Entitled handles the surface.

530 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Almaasah, 9/4 Spade, 5/1 Lady Rosamunde, Little Curtsey, 12/1 Run On Ruby, 20/1 Frosty Friday, Herminella, Peira, 50/1 Zartina, 100/1 Blue Maisey, Plug In Baby.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALMAASAH, a sister to Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, looks the part on pedigree and can make a winning debut.

Little Curtsey is a huge price mover, 13/8 and all red already - someone fancies this one today.

600 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Oceanway, 4/1 Alareen, 9/2 Starstuded, 6/1 Loves Theme, 8/1 Danish Pastry, 12/1 Waltzing Cat, 14/1 Red Remanso, 16/1 Queen Carmel, 25/1 Corvette, 33/1 Jody Bear, 50/1 Boushra.

DIOMED VERDICT: OCEANWAY remains capable of better after just a couple of starts and this could be the day she sheds her maiden tag.