back-lay-trade-horses-football: 3/11

A lay of AC Milan is very tempting this evening, but again with trading heads on only. We saw yesterday how trading is far more preferable to outright betting and should be employed in all cases where possible.

Olympiakos should win this afternoon, but we have no team news. Chelsea look rock solid for another win to nil at home and Mastery looks to master the 705 Kempton for Godolphin.

***** 745pm - Chelsea v Spartak Moscow - Back Chelsea in the match odds at 1.25 currently*****

The only problem I see is the absence of Malouda, but this should not impact a team with such stength in depth who already have a 2-0 away win at Spartak to their name.

The difference between traders and bettors apparent yesterday. I was out of the bet, for instance by halftime. Bettors had to sweat on a 3-0 scoreline for a few minutes.
Just out of interest, there was a magnificent enhanced bet as Videoton went 2 goals down in the Hungarian Cup , then turned it around and won 4-2 with 10 men!!

3pm - Ilioupolis v Olympiakos - 1.11 away - Greek Cup game is IN RUNNING - asian handicaps start at +2 which is expected for such a short priced away side. We all know Oly, but what of the home side? They are 12th of 18 in Division 2.
LLWLWL recently - no draws apparent! And inconsistent too. An 8 game home winning streak was ended last time out with a 2-1 loss

A 6 game winning streak for Oly was ended against Panathanaikos at the weekend. Not too shabby!
LWWL away this season for Oly. Again no draws. Do we simply accept the 1.11 offered to us as proof of the gulf in class? A strong Oly side of course will suffice. I think this was the game that was postponed last week.

745pm - AC Milan v Real Madrid - Real look continuously a good betting proposition under the Special One. More of the same tonight? Can we lay AC Milan at 3.45? Real Madrid have scored first in the last 3 head to heads in 2010 and 2009 so could open a good trading opportunity to back Real and lay off if they repeat the feat again?
This Real is a completely different animal now with a degree of defensive solidity.
10 wins and 2 draws in last 12 matches signal a return to form for Real.
AC Milan LWLWWDWDD is hardly compelling league form. 1-1 and 3-2 to AC Milan in last 2 head to heads at Milan.
I am sure, as I have said, that there is some scope for either backing Real or laying AC Milan here, not as an outright bet, but with a trading head on, and reactive if Real score or lead at any stage.

745pm - Chelsea v Spartak Moscow - 1.25 home - 2-0 away on 19th October augurs well for rock-solid-at-home Chelski.
Only recenty loss at home was 3-4 in the League Cup so that can be excused as it was a Chelsea under 12's girls XI.
Last 3 wins have been 2-0. Chelsea are capable of scoring at least 2 at home regardless of opposition.Apart from the League Cup, Chelsea have not conceded at Stamford Bridge in their last 10 home matches. ( could be longer but the website I use only goes as far as last 12 in all competitions)
This hints that if Chelsea score tonight, they win.
Spartak did beat Marseille away from home 1-0 so there is always a hint of an ultra defensive set up.
Safer bet today is naturally the lay of Spartak but at 18.5 it is better to back Chelsea and hope they continue scoring at home.

I notice the horse racing starting at 1215pm - this has caught me off guard so I will have to alter message times I think, incase we miss a solid one a dayer at the earlier time. Alternatively I can look at the earlier races the night before and determine whether to change the message time.

The earlier Nottingham races are unappealling, made worse by the soft ground.

125 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Pantxoa, 5/1 Jolly Roger, 8/1 Dragon´s Den, 9/1 If I Were A Boy, 16/1 Big Talk, 25/1 Claimant, Rigid, 33/1 Omaruru, 40/1 Penshurst Lad, 50/1 Steely Bird, 66/1 Guppy´s Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: PANTXOA should prove hard to beat.

key words " could be " useful. A sole run in France and suddenly 4/9 here is the Pantxoa.

150 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 First Lieutenant, 5/1 Sizing Mexico, 11/2 Smokey Joe Joe, 6/1 Aughnacurraveel, Brog An Ri, 8/1 Moon Dice, 10/1 Tough Talkin Man, 14/1 Sole Witness, 20/1 Augosto, 33/1 Council Official.

First Lieutenant has been consistent enough and at odds on now - 10/11 - is fancied to place at least under Davey Russell.
The Sizing horses are always interesting, Sizing Europe and Sizing Australia. Well now we have Sizing Mexico.

220 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Caymans, 5/2 Sahara Kingdom, 8/1 Sweet Child O´Mine, 12/1 West End Lad, 20/1 Blakey´s Boy, Ours, 50/1 Gypsy Jazz, 150/1 Obe One, Penderyn.

DIOMED VERDICT: Godolphin has won two of the last four runnings of this race and the stable's two runners stand out on official ratings. CAYMANS sets a smart standard on his Australian form and positive market signals would cement his strong chance on paper on his return from a significant absence.

Will this soft ground affect the performance of the 2 horses most likely to dominate? And can we assume they will fill the places? Inevitably I find one disappoints.

505 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sharedah, 100/30 Akinoshirabe, 5/1 Elmfield Giant, Tenessee, 6/1 Lyric Poet, 10/1 Agent Archie, 14/1 Syrian, 25/1 Chain Of Events.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHAREDAH by no means took a backward step when third at Newmarket last time and if maintaining the family tradition there should be further improvement in her.

Akinoshirabe is a market mover, all red and hinting at 15/8 for Fallon/Cumani

705 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mastery, 6/1 Dansant, 13/2 Kings Destiny, 7/1 Age Of Reason, Classic Punch, 8/1 Man Of Iron, 12/1 Dansili Dancer, Once More Dubai, 14/1 Munsef, 50/1 Status Symbol.

DIOMED VERDICT: This largely revolves around MASTERY, who is basically a very solid Group performer running at Listed level.