Shortlister Habbi Simpson won, Quaquo De Flotte won, High Benefit Won, Quel Esprit won, Croatia won at half time and scored 3 for over 2.5 goals, Finland won too scoring 8.So why do I come out of the day with a negative position?
100 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Franklino, 3/1 Rock Of Deauville, 8/1 Freckle Face, 10/1 Admission, 12/1 Ultravox, 14/1 Harry Hunt, 16/1 Matrow´s Lady, 25/1 Celtic Intrigue, Royal Box, 33/1 Tiptronic, Zambuka.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FRANKLINO can build upon the solid platform of a hurdling debut third at Aintree. |
Franklino is now 8/13 in the betting with Nicholl's Rock of Deauville ( a debutant) a close 2nd. All red, albeit with 3 bookies, he has form over hurdles, which is a plus for novice hurdlers.
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Marino Prince, 4/1 Monsieur, 9/2 Maizy Missile, 10/1 Aughcarra, 10/1 Django Reinhardt, 16/1 Galant Eye, 20/1 The Grey One, 20/1 Trotters Bottom, 25/1 The Boss Rock, 33/1 Cybergenic, 33/1 Echo Dancer, 33/1 Golden Partner, 50/1 Always Baileys.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pick of only a handful with feasible claims is the consistent MAIZY MISSILE, who goes well fresh, should handle conditions and remains on a decent enough mark. Marino Prince shaped well for Jim Best on Sunday and rates an obvious threat, along with lucky Bangor winner Monsieur.[Ben Osborne]
The betting forecast suggests 5 really to focus on for the places. 3 under 12/1 currently with Maizy Missile hinted at being backed and bordering on an each way price
200 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Roc De Guye, 4/1 Turn Up, 11/2 Chilla Cilla, 10/1 Form And Beauty, 10/1 Sumner, 12/1 Mujamead, 12/1 Secret Cavern, 14/1 Bedarra Boy, 25/1 Magusta, 25/1 Mamba, 50/1 Simiola.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Followers of trends should note that the favourite has won this race for the last nine years. The unexposed ROC DE GUYE (nap) escapes a penalty for his success at Fakenham on Monday and he can follow up. Turn Up andChilla Cilla also figure highly in calculations.[Steven Boow]
11 runner handicap chase and the stat that Spotlight points to can be viewed in 2 ways - either this winning favourite sequence will continue, or the longer this winning favourite sequence continues, the nearer we will come to this sequence ending. Fav is a non runnerand Chilla Cilla is the new fav 7/4,
330 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/12 Robinson Collonges, 8/1 Abstract Art, 33/1 Brimley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A straightforward task for rising star ROBINSON COLLONGES, who was mightily impressive at Bangor and was unlucky to fall when about to stamp his authority on a Grade 2 at Wincanton. Abstract Art can chase him home.[Ben Osborne]
Obvious opportunity but surely the meat in the sandwich Abstract art will be the value play here to place. Brinley down to 16/1 - significant? THis race is better approached trying to find who will finish 2nd
1240 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Dear Sam, 7/2 Basford Bob, 9/2 Our Matti, 6/1 Tiptoeaway, 10/1 Attaglance, 14/1 Pie At Midnight, 50/1 Another Mystery, 50/1 Roi De Garde, 50/1 Upper Deck.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Basford Bob, Our Matti and Tiptoeaway are respected rivals but everything points towards DEAR SAM being the one to beat for connections that enjoyed a double here last weekend.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Dear Sam was a 13 length 2nd to Cue Card last time out - not so bad and " a winner in waiting" as far as the analyst of last race is concerned.
8 runners and 3 places and important recent experience. Odds on now in the early betting market 8/13 with next best 5/1. Has the assistance of the Champion jockey and that 2nd to Cue Card is reasonable , albeit he was playing for crumbs in that race.
1245 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Morning Supreme, 4/1 The Hurl, 5/1 Eagle´s Pass, 6/1 Roi Du Mee, 10/1 Prince Roco, 12/1 Fen Game, 12/1 Playboy Luke, 16/1 Jettymarc, 25/1 Quiamo Malta, 33/1 The Hares Corner, 33/1 Vintage Oak, 50/1 Bobs Display, 50/1First In Line, 66/1 Rating Queen, 100/1 On The Button, 100/1 Preswell Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MORNING SUPREME is without question the best prospect in the race and while many of her stable mates have needed the run on their seasonal reappearances, she is quite a free-going sort and is unlikely to take as much work to get fit as most. Roi Du Mee is the best alternative to the selection. [Kevin Blake]
You know what you're betting in in beginner's chases, and falls are expected I suppose. Mullins' Morning Supreme stands out as Quel Esprit did yesterday. Early market enhances the price gap 5/6 with next best 6/1
145 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 The Bull Hayes, 7/1 Under The Arch, 8/1 London Bridge, 10/1 Marlos Moment, 10/1 Optimal Power, 12/1 Four Commanders, 16/1 Munsaab, 16/1 Rassi Maguire, 16/1 Takasima, 20/1 Baily Dusk, 20/1 Tadhg, 25/1 Ballyhoura, 50/1Packsapunch, 50/1 Tresilian, 50/1 Ufallya, 100/1 Arkmore Vallee, 100/1 Eochair, 100/1 Inishark.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE BULL HAYES registered a really positive performance on his hurdling debut last month and with improvement sure to be forthcoming from that, he should have too much class for this field. Under The Arch looks to be his biggest danger. [Kevin Blake]
Big price gapper here The Bull Hayes in this maiden hurdle.5/6 - - - -6/1 but only one bookie at present.
215 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ballyhaunis, 6/1 King Of Ardcarne, 7/1 Monastrell, 8/1 Wilde Wit Pleasure, 9/1 Big Robert, 10/1Dancing Hero, 33/1 Toor Brook Honours, 100/1 Barbaric Times, 100/1 Mr Bits And Pieces.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is not a straightforward task for BALLYHAUNIS by any means, but he appeals as one that could prove smart over hurdles in due course and it will be disappointing if he fails to overcome the negatives in this. King Of Ardcarnemay give him the most to think about. [Kevin Blake]
Another price gapper , and no coincidence that it is another Willie Mullins trained and Paul Townend ridden horse. 6/5 - -- - -4/1 with Monastrell the early market mover.
245 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sizing Mexico, 2/1 Gran Torino, 7/1 Marky Bob, 8/1 Grancore Girl, 12/1 Moon Over Moscow, 14/1Benefit Scheme, 33/1 High Amenity, 100/1 Fast Reaction.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks between Gran Torino and SIZING MEXICO (nap) and the 7lb difference in the weights could make the difference, though the market deserves close attention. [Johnny Ward]
8 runners and 3 places makes this interesting for me and the front 2 are the ones to concentrate on. The "Sizing" horses must always be respected. Sizing Mexico is odds on now in what should be a 2 horse race here.
345 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Popcorn, 6/1 Fitzcarraldo, 7/1 Ms Cabrita, 8/1 Rory O´moore, 10/1 Beabus House, 10/1 Mini Budget, 16/1 Monroe Park, 16/1 Roger Beantown, 33/1 Curragh Golan, 33/1 Native Wolf, 50/1 Really Unique, 66/1 Onroff.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POPCORN looks the one to beat here, with trainer Willie Mullins among the bumper winners again yesterday. Rory O'Moore may hold on for second. [Johnny Ward]
Price gapper again, and guess who? This is a bumper so market is required nearer the off. 218 day absence to overcome.4/6 - - - 8/1 here in the early market. I am having to rely solely on Bet365 which is not ideal .
150 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Easter Legend, 100/30 Dansimar, 7/1 Magical Legend, 11/1 Bosamcliff, 16/1 Prescelli.| DIOMED VERDICT: EASTER LEGEND looks the one to beat. Magical Legend is a non runner and Easter Legend is now 2/5 , 1/3 in places and has a rejuvenated Sam Thomas onboard. |
350 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Switched Off, 6/1 Wise Hawk, 13/2 J´adhere, 7/1 Taste The Wine, 7/1 Trump Call, 9/1 Lady Willa, 10/1 Highland Cadett, 12/1 We´re Delighted.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Switched Off will be hard to beat if the cheekpieces focus his concentration but there was something to like about WISE HAWK's effort at Warwick and he could well be ready to show more.[Jonathan Neesom]
Another price gapper, but this is a hands and heels novices handicap hurdle for conditional and amateur jockeys.
640 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mr Emirati, 5/2 American Smooth, 5/2 Red Rhythm, 14/1 Swingle, 16/1 Gorgeous Goblin, 33/1 Ettrick Mill, 33/1 Tumbled Again, 40/1 Ariel Bender.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Newcomer American Smooth should be monitored closely in the betting but MR EMIRATI has already shown form good enough to win a race of this quality. Red Rhythm completes the shortlist.[Stuart Redding]
8 runners and looking at the betting forecast, 3 horses under 14/1 -will these 3 dominate for the 3 places? The debutant American Smooth is the early favourite here but I would prefer to back an experienced horse and Mr Emirati has 2 runs, one at Ayr and one at Wolves last time out in September.20th October saw Definite Promise run on turf " promising"
Only 3 under 16/1 here - the market is expecting this to be a 3 horse race.
SHORTLIST
I have to write early today as I have a meeting at 1130am ( when I would normally look to the betting markets as they are generally complete then. The early markets, as I write, comprise Bet365 and a couple more.
100 HEREFORD - the market is adamant this is a 2 horse race - there are 2 under 16/1 here and Franklino is the one with experience All red with 3 bookies at this early stage.
200 HEREFORD - how do we approach such a strong stat ( favs winning last 9 years) -the actual projected fav is a non runner and there s a new fav here in Chilla Cilla, a faller last time out when " running a big race"
330 HEREFORD
- 1.12 to win for Robinson Collonges and 1.07 to place. Who will come 2nd? Abstract art at 1.6 to place?
1240 MARKET RASEN - Dear Sam looks to have a great place only chance here.1.11 to place.
1245 THURLES - Morning Supreme should have a good place only chance. Coming back from an absence, 1.25 to place
145 THURLES - The Bull Hayes is another strong price gapper here 1.25 to place
245 THURLES - 8 runners and 3 places and Sizing Mexico has a great chance of placing.
640 WOLVES - should involve the front 3. Mr Emirati to place for me. Illiquid place only markets.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1240 MARKET RASEN - Dear Sam's proximity to Cue Card good enough here? 1.11 to place
100 HEREFORD - dominated by the 2 under 16/1? Franklino is 1.17 to place
245 THURLES - Sizing Mexico to place
640 WOLVES - needs revisiting nearer race time. As things stand Mr Emirati looks good to place here and would be my preference rather than the debutant fav as I write.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
No comments:
Post a Comment