I suppose the most interesting race today would be 320 SOUTHWELL McConnell based on course and distance experience and the market move which makes him a 9/4 all red market leader.
Football wise, it is a case of having faith in the higher league opponents today with home advantage in the FA Cup replays. I hope you can see how precarious some of these teams are as far as their recent form is concerned. I mean, PortVale drawing 7 of their last 8 with 4 of their last 6 matches 0-0!! Yet they are 1.27 market leaders. This is based on home advantage and the perceived weakness of the opposition.
Huddersfield v Cambridge is the only other match of interest today as it is League 1 v Conference. Cambridge's concession of 2 goals or more in their last 5 away matches is compelling, as is Huddersfield's recent form.
*****ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY*****
Were you to hold a gun to my head today, I would back Port Vale in the match odds, and cover this stake with a 0-0 insurance bet at odds of 22 in the correct score market. This turns the bet into a 1.2 equivalent bet. We must cover the eventuality of a 0-0, as it has been so prevalent in Port Vale's recent matches.
William Wishes looks worth following in chases this season if near the head of the market. He looks a natural to the big fences and assured ( which is what us punters want to see)
745pm - Charlton v Barnet - 1.34 home - League 1 v League 2 and the last 2 encounters have been 0-0 and 1-0 to Barnet.
The market expects home advantage to be telling this evening for the league one side. Charlton have won 5 and drawn that Barnet game in their last 6 matches so are in good form.2 losses only in their last 12 matches,
8 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses at home in their last 12 in all competitions is good. 4-0 loss to Brighton a standout scoreline and recent too.
A massive 8 of Charlton's home matches have finished 1-0 in their last 12. This is a worrying stat, broken up by some anomolous scorelines such as 2-2, 2--1 and that 4-0 loss.
Marry these 1-0's with Barnet's shut out 0-0 last time, and the 1.35 is less attractive, but will viewing Barnet's form change this view?
I foresee a tight match here and the market tells me that home advantage should be telling.
Barnet have only won 3 in their last 12. Recent form is DD( v Charlton)LLWLLLWL.
Away from home, it's DLLLDLLLLLLL in their last 12. They have conceded 2 in 9 of their last 12 away matches.
745pm - Huddersfield v Cambridge Utd - 1.35 home - Another FA Cup replay and another 0-0 in the away fixture.
This is league 1 v Conference and as I have said before with Cup matches, I am looking for big gulf in leagues. This , therefore, is preferable to League 1 v League 2.
Huddersfield have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 4 in their last 12 matches in all competitions.
1-0 loss came in last match , prior to which it was WWWDW. In fact, Huddersfield had won 7 of their last 9 matches prior to this loss last match, so are in fine fettle.
In their last 11 at home, Huddersfield have only lost once.DWDWDWLWWWW ( most recent last) 4 game home winning streak is ideal to be facing a Conference side.
WLLLLDWWWDDD in their last 12 for Cambridge ( latest match last). 3 draws on the trot ( includes Huddersfield) . Last 2 score draws Cambridge were leading 2-0 and 1-0 and lost the lead. So enhanced traders take note if Cambridge lead this evening.
DWLDLLDLLDWD (latest last) away from home. 5 draws, 5 losses and 2 wins in last 12 aways.
Cambridge have conceded 2,2,2,2,3 (latest first) in their last 5 away matches in the Conference.
A first team for Huddersfield should surely take advantage if Cambridge are consistently conceding 2+ in the lowly conference?
745pm - Port Vale v Dartford - 1.27 home - League 2 v Conference south. Dartford took the lead in the first fixture and Port Vale drew with an 84th minute equaliser.
Dartford so nearly hung on, and the market recounts that they will be punished tonight for not holding out for 6 minutes longer. Like the above match, this is the kind of gulf in leagues I like to see.
WWWLDDDDWDDD for Port Vale in their last 12 - 7 draws in their last 8 matches is alarming.Priced tonight to put that right.
DDLLDWDDWL for Port Vale in their last 10 - more draws!!
Now either the draw should be covered tonight or Port Vale should end this draw sequence with a home win against lower league opposition.
4 of Port Vale's last 6 matches have been 0-0's. Yet again another 0-0 insurance bet this evening?
LLLDLLDDW away from home recently for Dartford.
8pm - Scotland v Faroe Islands - 1.15 home. After an epic struggle against, erm, Leichtenstein at home, Scotland face those other footballing superpowers the Faroe Islands. Now under Brian Kerr, they are likely to be very frustrating to play against for Scotland this evening.
The mid week losses for Celtic and Rangers may signal a tiredness about the Scottish contingent who play for the Old Firm, and this must be factored in too. With minimal downside, this 1.15 looks very layable indeed ( to trade only). An early Scots goal may mean an end to the trade, but at such small odds, any losses will be minimised.
Remember this is a friendly so there is really nothing bar gate receipts to play for this evening.
1250 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Shostakovich, 6/1 Regal Bullet, 8/1 Bobbyow, 10/1 Henrys Air, Je Suis Unrockstar, 12/1 Glenns Princess, 14/1 Ace Master, Look´N´Listen, 20/1 Scommettitrice, Skiddaw View, 25/1 Alantina, Vienna Woods, 33/1 Juarla, Kyncraighe.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Sylvester Kirk has a good strike-rate here and SHOSTAKOVICH, who was a decisive winner of a C&D seller last week, can boost it further. Ace Master is bred to be at home round here and better is expected now handicapping with Regal Bullet and Bobbyow best of the remainder. |
A poor class 6 0-60 nursery on the unique Southwell fibresand sees us trying to fathom a race with poorly rated 2 year olds. But there is a price gapper who has winning course and distance form, and course experience can be priceless here.
110 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Vesey Lodge, 7/2 Oscar Prairie, 4/1 Lomitaar, Top Smart, 10/1 Chervonet, 33/1 Candlefort Lady, 40/1 King Richard.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This summer's maiden point and Uttoxeter bumper winner VESEY LODGE could be good enough to make a winning hurdles debut for his new yard. |
Fav a non runner and Oscar Prairie takes up favouratism, and , in this heavy ground, is the only one with any real semblance of form in heavy. 2 places and heavy ground ! Hmm.
This should be a 4 horse race for 2 places, as there are 2 clear outsiders.
120 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ibn Bajjah, 4/1 X Rated, 5/1 Escala, 10/1 Frosty Friday, 12/1 Ice Nelly, Waterford Star, 25/1 Melody Belle, Szabo´s Destiny, 28/1 Final Liberation, The Absent Mare, 40/1 Bobby Dazzler, 50/1 Bodie,
| DIOMED VERDICT: IBN BAJJAHp has strong credentials on paper, being a well-bred Derby entry whose top stable is five from 10 here with 2yos in recent seasons. |
You back a debutant at Southwell with caution. The right stable and jockey and a 50% stable strike rate with their 2 year olds. X rated looks a logical value alternative here as he has run at Southwell last twice.
310 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Portrait Royale, 100/30 Romney Marsh, 4/1 Orion Star, 5/1 You Can Of Course.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Cases can be made for the other three but PORTRAIT ROYALE has a good chance to repeat last year's win in this race. The chase course is soft at Folkstone. A significant move for You can of course who I suspect is an Irish horse., into 15/8 joint favouratism. 4 horses and 2 places - simple 50/50 race 320 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Mcconnell, 5/1 Club Tahiti, 13/2 Eastern Hills, 7/1 Royal Holiday, 15/2 Astrodonna, 10/1 Bel Cantor, 11/1 Pinsplitter, San Antonio, 12/1 Border Owl, 14/1 Gordy Bee, 16/1 Ancient Times, 20/1 Florio Vincitore, 25/1 Craicajack, Jonnie Skull.
Mcconnell is 9/4, all red and very well fancied today , has the imperious George Baker onboard and may make his course and distance experience count. 340 FOLKSTONE BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Penny Max, 7/2 Sterling Chief, 7/1 Ice ´N´ Easy, 14/1 Thewellmeadow, 20/1 Armedanddangerous, Knowsall, 33/1 Luna Lightning, Smart Catch.
This fav is now 2/5 based on a solitary bumper run in February in Ireland.One of only 2 under 14/1 currently in an 8 runner, 3 place race, dare we trust the market in the final race at a heavy ground venue? SHORTLIST What a miserable day's betting, heavy ground Folkstone and the unique fibresand of Southwell, mixed liberally with lower league FA Cup replays and the mighty Scots tackling the Brazil of the North Sea in an utterly meaningless friendly. 745pm - Huddersfield v Cambridge Utd - 1.35 home - first match of interest based really on the gulf in the leagues. League 1 to Conference. Prior to a 1-0 loss latest, Huddersfield had won 7 of their last 9 in all competitions. Cambridge, away from home, have conceded 2 or more in their last 5 matches. The market expects home advantage to tell. Shortest priced correct score is "any unquoted" at 4.9. 745pm - Port Vale v Dartford - 1.27 home - the sequencer will see 7 draws in Port Vale's last 8, glance at the gulf in leagues, and expect this draw sequence to end with a win this evening. The market expects the same. With so many 0-0's ( regardless of the apparent weakness of today's opponents) another 0-0 insurance bet may be a wise move if backing Port Vale. A class 6 0-60 nursery on fibresand - no thanks. 4 horses for 2 places in heavy ground - no thanks 120 SOUTHWELL is a 2 year old 1 mile maiden with a Godolphin debutant as favourite. Quite simply, this debutant will either take to the course or he won't. And quite frankly, we have no idea which of the 2 it will be. The very definition of a gamble! A signifcant mover in Ice Nelly . 2nd fav X Rated was 66/1 3rd last time out. Is this an anomolous run as the odds suggested or a step up in form? 340 FOLKSTONE - if we believe the market, this Penny Max is 4/11 in places based solely on a bumper run in Ireland in February on soft/heavy ground. One of only 2 under 14/1 and 3 under 20/1 as I write. The question is whether we can trust the horse after a layoff in heavy ground ( the last race of the day at a heavy venue) The booking of Sam Thomas though caught my eye. 1.09 to place on heavy ground after a layoff is a bit low. -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94 |
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