Man Utd look to maintain their unbeaten run this season away at Bursaspor where I would back either under 3.5 goals at 1.28 or would lay Bursaspor who are yet to score in the Champions League at 5.3 which is the equivalent of a 1.23 back bet.
*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Bursaspor v Man Utd - Back under 3.5 goals at 1.28 *****
Please be aware that all in running football matches allow us to manage our positions i.e. trade out to get our stake back or "sell back" our bet early if , say, 0-0 for a concerted period.
Insolenceofoffice won, and thus placed
V Happy with Malmo, the only footy match to reach the shortlist of the shortlist.
130pm - Bajai LSE v Videoton - 1.35 away - Hungarian Cup sees inform Division 2 W side Bajai face inform top flight Videoton.
WWWWWLWWW for Bajai recently v LWWWWWW for Videoton in their corresponding leagues.
WWWLWD away for Videoton again solid form and WWWWWLWL at home for Bajai.
The market expects top flight to naturally overcome Division 2 W
In Play and difficult to evaluate apart from the obvious divisional differences.
745pm - FC Copenhagen v Barcelona - 1.43 away - 1-0 for a very long time last head to head on 20th October after 19th minute Messi goal, and this game is likely to be tight again. Only losses for Copenhagen have come in the Cup and Champions League recently.
Away from home, Barca may employ their defensive formation which ensures low scoring ( if you see Mascherano then you'll know!)
1.45 under 3.5 goals becomes interesting here.
745pm - Bursaspor v Man Utd - if United are allowed to use their hands again, then they are eminently backable this evening. 7th minute 1-0 in head to heads and likely more of the same this evening.
United are unbeaten in their last 10 matches and results such as 1-0 away to Valencia give an inkling of what is possible this evening. I predict another low scoring affair, much like the Barca game.
1-0, 1-0 0-0 in last 3 United Champions League matches - a coincidence or a deliberate tactic to keep it tight and nick a goal?
1-0, 1-0, 0-4 ( valencia) for Bursaspor in the Champions League last 4. The Valencia scoreline a slight worry as a firing and strong United side could easily inflict this.
I would consider laying Bursaspor here at 5.3 which is the equivalent of a 1.23 back bet.
745pm - Southampton v Dag and Red - 1.36 home
9th v 23rd here - LLLDDLL away from home ( latest last) for D & R signals why Soton are favs here.
Have only won 2 of 14 league matches this season, drawing 6.
All of the draws have been score draws.
Have played 4 of the top 10 away from home resulting in 2 2-2 draws and 2 losses, 3-0 and 2-0.
Soton have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. They have won 3 home matches on the trot, scoring 2 in each match.
Have yet to play the bottom 3 at home so cannot gauge if they have any anomolous results against bottom basement boys.
745pm - Valencia v Rangers - 1.43 home - 1-1 in last match, and that equaliser for Valencia was an own goal.
All bar one of these 2's last 6 matches in the Champions League have been under 2.5 goals. Expect an under 3.5 goal bet here to come in?
1.42 is a reasonable price.
135 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mr Hudson, 3/1 Madison Du Berlais, 7/2 George Nympton, 8/1 Ace High, 11/1 The Grifter, 16/1 Ballyegan, Grey Wulff, 25/1 Quiet Alice, 28/1 The Clyda Rover, 33/1 Driving Onwards, 40/1 Graduation Night.
DIOMED VERDICT: This can go to MR HUDSON.
The 120 Plumpton showed yesterday that the market cannot be trusted with novice hurdlers. We have to realise they are novices.
Again here, we have 4 under 20/1 and a Walsh/Nicholls market leader who as no direct hurdles experience in race conditions.
We also have soft ground to contend with.
Madison de Berlais is a very well known chaser and could be the value here from the 4 under 20/1
205 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Dare Me, 8/1 Silver Roque, 10/1 Arrayan, 14/1 Alla Svelta, Sorcillera, 16/1 Eddie Boy, Ladies Dancing, Trouble Digger, 28/1 Tooney Malooney, 33/1 Baraquet, Tiger Breeze, 40/1 Chase Gate, Haydens Mount, Sarah´s Boy, 50/1 Midnight Paradise, 66/1 Cridda Boy, Gallimaufry, 100/1 Forty Knights.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Despite the big field, credible opposition to smart prospect DARE ME is thin on the ground and he ought to be very hard to beat. |
These extreme pricer gappers have performed well. 2/2 recently with Amuse me and Quick Wit. More of the same today for Dare Me?
Only ran once in a hurdle so is still a novice and we have soft ground which he has not encountered yet.
245 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Avonvalley, 7/2 Galpin Junior, 9/2 Wicked Wilma, 6/1 Atlantic Beach, 7/1 Real Diamond, 8/1 Go Go Green, 20/1 Jibrrya, 25/1 Sophie´s Beau.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AVONVALLEY, who ran well over C&D last time, is preferred to Galpin Junior |
6 horses and 3 places here - simply a 50/50 race for the places. Galpin Junior is 15/8,. and all red but this is a 5 furlong soft ground claiming race - class 6!!
430 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Court In Motion, 9/2 Join Together, 5/1 Oscar Papa, 9/1 De Forgotten Man, 10/1 Jayjay Valentine, 12/1 Glenfly, 16/1 Mi Money, 20/1 Glens Boy, 28/1 The Boss, 50/1 Lagan Katie.
| DIOMED VERDICT: COURT IN MOTION sets a good standard on last season's useful efforts over hurdles, including when unfortunate not to make a winning start here in February. He can see off an interesting recruit from bumpers in Oscar Papa, with Join Together and De Forgotten Man best of the rest. |
Not run since Feb, but now all red and 4/5 here for reappearance. Would seem to be suited to the soft ground with 3 runs on heavy, soft ,soft
SHORTLIST
130pm - Bajai LSE v Videoton - 1.35 away - in running and faith really only in the logic of backing top flight against lower league opposition despite both teams showing good recent form.
745pm - FC Copenhagen v Barcelona - 1.43 away - Barca are quite obviously a class apart here but may employ their new defensive formation which stifles creativity. 1-0 for an extended period last time, then 2-0 in 90+minute may enhance the argument to back under 3.5 goals at 1.42 ( I would have to trade here !)
745pm - Southampton v Dag and Red - 1.36 home - this looks like another of those "in form v out of form" matches. Saints on a 3 game home winning streak facing a side yet to win away in the league this season. As we have an in running capability, it must be used when in play.
745pm - Bursaspor v Man Utd - laying Bursaspor interests me in this match. Your stake would become your fixed liability amount here so the 5.3 to lay becomes around a 1.22 back bet.
United look too assured this season and in the Champions League.
745pm - Valencia v Rangers - again under 3.5 goals at 1.42 looks tempting given the wholly defensive Rangers attitiude in the Champions League away. The United 0-0 flattered Rangers as it was a weakened side.
205 EXETER - Dare Me is another of those huge price gappers - 1.23 to win and 1.09 to place. Chance the win?
Soft ground a slight concern but the market does not seem perturbed.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - FC Copenhagen v Barcelona - 1.43 away - again with trading in mind, perhaps under 3.5 goals or back Barcelona with a 0-0 cover bet given they may employ the "defensive Barca" tonight.
745pm - Bursaspor v Man Utd - looks standout to me this one. Lay Bursaspor using stake as fixed liability for an equivalent 1.22 back bet. Back under 3.5 goals too again with trading in mind
at 1.28
205 EXETER - Dare Me - based really on the excellent winning record of such huge price gappers.
A slight note of caution " A sound surface looks important to his cause and he should be well up to defying a penalty should connections wish to get more experience into him before tackling something more valuable." - analysis of last race.
Also, still a novice so the jumping errors may still be visible.
With soft ground and Exeter and Catterick today, it is a wholly unappealing race card.
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