Negatives - 23 wins in last 29 runs for all horses in this race tells you they are all solid animals.
Pitkin - is a 2 year old and we know how inconsistent these learners can be. Running off the same mark as the win last time out, slight concern that the gamble was landed last time, and anything more is a bonus.
Taurikina is a huge price gapper, biggest of the day , in a class 6 0-55 handicap. These price gappers in these types of races historically have very good strike rates. to place. Negatives? THe very fact they are 0-55 handicaps tell you the next stop is selling company!! By their very nature, inconsistency is par for the course in this grade.
*****ONE A DAY - 520 WOLVERHAMPTON - Taurakina to place only*****
8/13 - - - - - 8/1 price gap here and should be competitive running before being reassessed. Concerns? Class 6 0-55 handicap and this is a poor class of race, but price gappers in these races are generally competitive.
I would actually prefer a no bet day today given the hopelessness of Getafe and rangers spoiling what was a good run, and look forward to Saturday and Sunday. I do not want 3 losses on the trot, that is my worry today.
A choice between Getafe and Valencia yesterday and Getafe could not score. Huge disappointment as it is another poor decision on my part.Why did I swerve Valencia? Well they won 3-0 in first leg, and are on a run of 3 losses and a draw in La Liga, I thought they would be taking it easy. Ajax won 3-0 as hinted at and Valencia were 3-1 up at halftime. And I choose the one which does nothing bar hitting the woodwork a few times and missing sitters.
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cue Card, 7/2 Dunraven Storm, 6/1 King Of The Night, 8/1 Ballyadam Brook, 8/1 Owen Glendower, 16/1 Far Away So Close, 33/1 Maska Pony, 100/1 Valid Point.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fascinating and highly informative contest in which all eyes will be on Champion Bumper winner CUE CARD who shot to the head of the betting for the top novice events at the Festival following his easy success at Aintree on his hurdling debut. This is a much stronger race that includes other nice prospects but he's potentially top class and his unbeaten record can stay intact. Dunraven Storm, King Of The Night and Owen Glendower are also undefeated over hurdles and still very much unexposed.[Steven Boow]
8 runners and 3 places here and an exciting prospect apparently in Cue Card who won a novices hurdle last time out quite convincingly. " potential star in the making"
Valid Point an insignificant non runner.7 runners and 3 places now. Always tricky to make a choice when you have so many unexposed types open to all ends of improvement.1.17 to place is emphatic in the place only market.
300 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Garde Champetre, 6/1 Sizing Australia, 15/2 Lacdoudal, 9/1 Joe Lively, 14/1 Heads Onthe Ground, 16/1 Flintoff, 20/1 Freneys Well, 25/1 Changing Course, 25/1 Mr Big, 33/1 Pass Me By, 40/1 Lucky Luk.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is very hard to see beyond GARDE CHAMPETRE, who has an outstanding record in these events here and is heavily favoured by today's weights. He should repeat last year's win granted another clear round, with Lacdoudal and Joe Lively most interesting of the remainder. [Mel Cullinan]
Price gapper here and Edna Bolger usually wins these cross country events . Garde Champetre has won 5 times at Cheltenham.
Clear round of course required. Other Bolger runners include Heads on the Ground and Freneys Well. Favoured by the weights today and 1.3 to place. Nina Carberry has been a regular jockey for Garde Champetre. Slight drift to 6/5 in the win market at present but next best is 5/1
Slight concern he made a cock up last time in March when 7/4 favourite and finished 5th as jockey lost an iron.
But there is no arguing with the record at Cheltenham and over this cross country course for both horse and jockey.
335 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Aegean Dawn, 8/1 Amore Mio, 9/1 Pro Pell, 10/1 Chance Du Roy, Dynaste, Turner Brown, 12/1 Scampi Boy, Sound Stage, 14/1 Max Bygraves, Rhum, Traffic Article, 16/1 King´s Revenge, Stripe Me Blue, Very Edgy, 20/1 Ponmeoath, 25/1 Blazing Buck, Entertain Me, Mickmacmagoole, 28/1 Global Flyer, Sandofthecolosseum, 33/1 Boogie Dancer, Tarvini, 40/1 Phare Isle, 50/1 Bally Sands.Not so much a price gapper in the betting forecast, but in the live betting market Aegean Dawn is 2/1 with next best at 10/1. Yard have won this in last 2 years.1.75 to place and 4 places.
1.75 is more of a tradeable place bet than a traditional bet and go.
700 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Flic Flac, 7/2 President Lincoln, 4/1 Dubawi Star, 6/1 Sportsmaster, 7/1 Unique Style, 8/1 Giving Orders, 8/1 Music Pearl, 10/1 Master Melody, 12/1 Luibin Cufa, 12/1 Mharashic, 14/1 Cailin Coillteach, 14/1 Elizabeth Coffee, 14/1Elusive Express, 14/1 Peggys Step.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Flic Flac came close to getting off the mark at Naas 6f last month and the extra furlong should be in her favour tonight but the once-raced PRESIDENT LINCOLN gets the vote to score for Ballydoyle with Dubawi Star andSportsmaster two more with claims.[Brian Fleming]
Weld/Smullen on the fav and President Lincoln for Murtagh /O'Brien should dominate.
900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Be My Storm, 4/1 Fool´s Wildcat, 13/2 Camira, 8/1 Carazam, 10/1 Avanti Albert, 10/1 Belle Noverre, 10/1 Elusive Ridge, 12/1 Pirans Rock, 12/1 Riobamba, 12/1 South Wing, 14/1 Karlisse, 16/1 Charminamix, 16/1 Matraash, 20/1Faldal.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The form of the Navan race in which BE MY STORM (nap) was fourth makes good reading, and she should account for these rivals, best of whom may be recent handicap hurdle winner Fool's Wildcat. Also worth a look is Camira, though there may be a doubt about her getting the trip. [Alan Sweetman]
Another Weld/Smullen fav in this handicap.
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Map Of Heaven, 3/1 Steps, 3/1 Three Sparrows, 7/2 Crimson Cloud, 14/1 Cara Carmela, 14/1 Silca Conegliano, 33/1 Liberty Green, 50/1 Walshestown Lad, 250/1 Hannah Cann, 250/1 Veuveveuvevoom.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Steps is interesting back in trip but the widest draw is the worry and that tips things the way of MAP OF HEAVEN (nap), who has shaped well on both turf starts and who is bred to handle Polytrack. [Richard Young]
Betting forecast shows 4 under 14/1 in the betting forecast. Map of Heaven has an interesting jockey booking in Joe Fanning. Looks the same in the live betting market, only now Steps has been backed into 6/4 favourite here.Widest draw over 5 furlongs has not put off the market makers for Steps. 4 under 16/1 - the fly in the ointment is 8/1 Crimson Cloud.
This should be a 4 horse race for 3 places so a good probability chance here.
205 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 La Concorde, 3/1 Kitty Wells, 7/2 Cast Of Stars, 5/1 Maccool, 14/1 Lisselan Courtesan, 20/1 Lisselan Grace, 33/1 Rannoch Moor, 50/1 The Brown Bomber, 66/1 Maydream, 100/1 Mystic Halo, 100/1 Poesmulligan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: La Concorde is sure to be popular switched to Polytrack but slight preference is for KITTY WELLS, who didn't confirm debut promise last time but the step up to this trip looks sure to suit and she's capable of better. [Richard Young]
3 under 14/1 in this maiden - market important as Maccool is a Barney Curley debutant.
250 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Empress Orchid, 5/1 Catleen, 7/1 Along Came Rosie, 7/1 Tchikita, 10/1 Baileys Ruffit, 10/1 Miss Abbey, 10/1 Roll Over Rose, 14/1 Hole In One, 20/1 Bach Street Girl, 20/1 Vallani, 33/1 Almond Court, 33/1 Basford Lady, 33/1Sported And Played, 66/1 Airey Scarey.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a strong race and these softer conditions could play to the strengths of EMPRESS ORCHID, who has shown ability on each of her three starts and is capable of better over hurdles. [Richard Young]
McCain jr and Maguire and a long absence to get over for Empress Orchid.13/8 - - - - -5/1 in the live betting market. 1.48 to place in an illiquid market and a big field of maiden hurdlers a little offputting.
420 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Pitkin, 11/2 Forty Proof, 13/2 Miss Toldyaso, 13/2 Till Dawn, 8/1 Gunalt Joy, 12/1 Sensational Love, 12/1 Silk Bounty, 16/1 Mr Optimistic, 20/1 Bon Appetit, 20/1 Shutupandrive, 25/1 Mini Bon Bon.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PITKIN has a cracking chance off the same mark as when beating Forty Proof on his AW/nursery debut here last week. He's a big, scopey individual who should progress further in any case.[Steven Boow]
Price gapper here " has a cracking chance" and the price gap is reflected in the live betting market. A course and distance winner last time, Pitkin is currently 6/5 with next best at 7/1.
Can we trust those good ole 2 year olds? Running off the same mark as his win last time out, hence the excitement in the market, 1.3 to place is quite high for such a price gapper.
520 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Taurakina, 15/2 Lordsbury Pride, 9/1 Black Baccara, 9/1 Equinity, 10/1 Desert Strike, 12/1Colamandis, 12/1 Itsthursdayalready, 14/1 Duke Of Rainford, 14/1 Only A Game, 25/1 Fair Bunny, 25/1 Sorrel Point, 33/1 Royal Envoy, 40/1 Connor´s Choice.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some modest and mainly exposed types are likely to struggle against Italian import TAURAKINA (nap)who made short work of similar opposition at Kempton last week on her first run for her new trainer and should not be troubled by the drop in distance. Lordsbury Pride may be the one to follow her home.[Frank Carter]
Price gapper in a class 6 0-55 handicap and these have excellent place only strike rates.
Won at Kempton on 3rd November so we can assume he handles Wolverhampton. An Italian import, this Taurakina, and could be on the start of a winning sequence in lowly class 6 handicaps. 1.26 to place.
Drop in distance today . Has poor overall form but this bargain basement class of race seems to be to the horse's liking.
620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Celani, 7/2 Flying Arch, 11/2 Bill Page, 13/2 Tidal Star, 8/1 Ho Ya Mal, 14/1 Rutland Boy, 25/1 Fire Commander, 25/1 Gekko, 33/1 Barry Crockett, 33/1 Una Vita Pius, 40/1 Cherrego, 40/1 Shirocco Vice.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CELANI has shown promise in races won by fillies who have subsequently gone well in the Radley Stakes at Newbury and is one of only two runners with experience of Polytrack, the other being Bill Page. Ed Dunlop's two newcomers need to be monitored in the betting.[Steven Boow]
Only 5 under 14/1 and 6 under 25/1 in the betting forecast.
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Realisation, 4/1 Captain John Nixon, 13/2 Saint Thomas, 8/1 Arizona John, Fine Sight, 10/1 Stand Guard, 12/1 Can Can Star, Snow Dancer.
| DIOMED VERDICT: REALISATION made a successful AW debut at Dundalk and is open to improvement on the surface. Fellow 3yo Captain John Nixon is also relatively unexposed in this sphere. |
Fanning/Johnston on a price gapper is always of some appeal, as is the fact this is an 8 runner race for 3 places.2nd biggest priced horse is only 10/1 which always raises some concerns as it indicates that a lot of these horses can be considered - -i.e. there are no real " outsiders" if the 2nd biggest price is 10/1
Stand Guard is a massive mover into 5/1 here .
SHORTLIST
530pm - Admira Wacker v WAC St Andra - 1.3 home - a 2-0 win on 5th November this year is about as recent a piece of form as you can get. And the home team have sparkling home form. Is this too recent a meeting? Surely any manager worth their salt would have learned a lot from such a recent meeting and ensure their side do not succumb to another 2-0 defeat?150 CHELTENHAM - Cue Card is already favourite for a number of races at the main Cheltenham Festival in March 2011, and is a course and distance winner. 23 wins in the 7 competitors last 29 runs tells you the type of high class horses we have on show here. The place only market is emphatic though. 1.17 to place in a 7 runner race and 3 places still - they believe Cue Card will finish in the first 3.There are 2 horses at 22/1 and 33/1 who can hopefully be discounted, leaving 5 for 3 places. Interesting.
300 CHELTENHAM - winning streaks end eventually and that was the case with Garde Champetre last time out. A disappointing 5th when the same price as today.Lost an iron in that race. Now a strong market leader again One of only 4 under 16/1, reacquainted with Nina Carberry too and 1.3 to place. 3 miles 7 is a long way to carry anyone's money but this horse can do this course on autopilot, having won so many times.
130 LINGFIELD - this should be a 4 horse race for 3 places and the 8/1 Crimson Cloud is the spoiler who could push one of the 3 market leaders out of a place. I would have shortlisted Steps and Map of Heaven here. Steps has the widest draw which is not ideal over the minimum trip, and Map of Heaven has not run on the all weather, so niggles as regards the principles.
1.3 for both to place and clearly dominant in the place only market.Map of Heaven "bred to handle polytrack" and has Joe Fanning onboard and these 2 factors might sway me in that direction.
420 WOLVES - ahead of the handicapper this Pitkin. I seem to remember mentioning the market move in dispatches when he last raced and won. Off the same mark as that market mover win last time out. I suspect the gamble was last time at a tasty 11/2 and anything today is a bonus.
Big price gap 6/5 - - - -7/1 , this is a nursery so a case of hoping that these 2 year olds are reliable.1.3 to place.
520 WOLVES - Taurikina is another worthy price gapper, in a class 6 0-55 handicap. Now detractors will rightly point out the poor ratings here but it seems that these kind of price gappers have good place only chances historically
650 WOLVES - Realisation is a marginal price gapper, but is Fanning/Johnston and they are a potent combination especially in an 8 runner race - Stand Guard is a significant market mover and the 2nd biggest priced outsider at 10/1 tells us this is competitive .1.4 to place in an illiquid market.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
150 CHELTENHAM - Cue Card is the shortest priced of the place onlys today and runs in a 7 runner race for 3 places. Yes these are top flight horses ( 23 wins in their last 29 races ) and that has to be factored in, but Cue Card seems to have a good probability chance of success .1.19 to place
420 WOLVES - Pitkin was a gamble last week that came off. Same mark in today's race and 6/5 - - - - 7/1 price gap, 1.3 to place. He should place as long as he remains consistent and that is a concern with 2 year olds.
520 WOLVES - my old " price gapper in a class 6 0-55 handicap" resurfaces with Taurakina 8/13 - - - -10/1 - a huge price gap here and a horse on the verge of a winning sequence I suspect.
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