back-lay-trade-horses-football: 17/11

There is a very obvious one today in Fashionable Gal -looks rock solid at a stingy 1.08 though. Take the price and move on? Or risk the win only 1.3 with next best at 13/2.

High Benefit is a debutant , and has an absence to overcome but is a price gapper and one of only 2 under 12/1. 1.18 to place appeals.

Croatia will win, the only question is whether the enhanced bets will come in.Halftime/fulltime and over 2.5 goals.
I would lean more towards the latter bet here and would insist upon trading the 1.3 in the event of an early goal or a 2-0 , 1-1 scoreline.

***** ONE A DAY -250 LINGFIELD -BACK FASHIONABLE GAL TO WIN ONLY******

Looks rock solid today and I am going to chance the win only for this big price gapper.

A real frustration yesterday as there was a superb one a dayer in the live market 220 Southwell, but which only became apparent with late runners.
220 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 The Big Haerth, 5/1 April Fool, 7/1 Petomic, 8/1 Prize Point, 10/1 Toby Tyler, 16/1 White Deer, 25/1 Special Cuvee, 50/1 Lord´s Seat, 66/1 Flaxton, 100/1 Bottomless Wallet, Fairys In A Storm, Mr Shammie.

fav, 3rd, 4th 5th non runners leaves April Fool 4/7 ( all red) - - -- -6/1 and 1.14 to place.
April fool won. A real pity I could not share this.

Missing Hong Kong v Paraguary at midday - a pity as Hing Kong tend to get hong tonked.

430pm - Croatia v Malta - 1.03 - look to goals or halftime/fulltime. Asians start at 3 to 3.5 goals making over 2.5 goals at 1.3 somewhat appealing.

1.23 halftime/fulltime for the Croats is really a bet as to whether they will score in the first half. Croats rock solid, won 9 and drawn 3 in all competitions including friendlies.

Malta have only won 1 in their last 12, 11 matches ago.They have lost 10 and drawn 1.

1,3,3,4,2,4,1,3,3,3,2,5, the goals conceded by Malta away ( latest first) - plenty of 3's there to support the over 2.5 goals but the 3's are only just limping over the 2.5 goals line.

430pm - Finland v San Marino - -1.03 - see above only this time San Marino have lost their last 12, and all bar 1 by 3 goals or more. They played Moldova last time out and only lost by 2, with the 2nd goal coming in the 86th minute.
Dare we rely on Finland who should, at these odds, score 3?
Finland also lost 2-0 to Moldova and have drawn 1-1 with Leichtenstein! Hmmm.

730pm - Sweden v Germany - 2.24 away - time and again the Germans have defied the odds and either scored first or won. Yes a friendly, but this is Sweden, whose only real notable is Ibra and he is lazier than Matt Le Tissier after a Sunday Roast.
Still a speculative trade can be entered into I suppose in the hope Germany continues scoring first.
The Germans have scored first in their last 6.
Sweden's home record is excellent. Hence the big price for Germany.They have won their last 7, 5 matches in which they did not concede.

1250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fastest Magician, 7/2 Daffydowndilly, 11/2 Palais Glide, 8/1 Arowana, Salesiano, 16/1 Pink Sari, 20/1 Robin Hoods Bay, 25/1 Bluberry, 33/1 Bedibyes, Cool Water Oasis, 40/1 Bridget The Fidget,

DIOMED VERDICT: FASTEST MAGICIAN comes from a yard in fine form and this well-bred sort could prove good enough first time.

Daffy is all red here, backed into 15/8 with Fastest Magician a close 2nd but not looking as if he has been backed.
I ignored McConnell yesterday to my cost ( another all red who won).
5 debutants, 3 one time outers and 3 2 time outers in opposition - plenty of opportunity for improvers. A 3rd last time out for Daffy came on the all weather.

200 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Don´t Turn Bach, 9/4 The Old Pretender, 6/1 Habbie Simpson, Youralltalk, 16/1 Artic Pride, 20/1 Coral Point, Morcambe, Vin De Roy, 25/1 Fidelor, 33/1 Life Long, The Boss, 50/1 Boosha, 66/1 Direct Approach, Flying Flagship, 100/1 Colonel Alf, Racing With Angels, Real Dandy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Youralltalk and Habbie Simpson looked promising on their hurdling debuts recently but DON'T TURN BACH and The Old Pretender could easily be a class above them.

Yes 17 runners but only 4 in the betting under 25/1 - default to the Powerful Nicholls yard and Don't turn Bach? He is only a bumper winner so the inference is that if he jumps, and conbines that with his speed , he will do well. The other 3 have had at least one hurdles run.

250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Fashionable Gal, 9/2 Pertuis, 8/1 Cabuchon, 14/1 Princess Runner, 16/1 Rustic Deacon, 20/1 Red Willow, 33/1 Harrys, 66/1 Beseech, Quahadi.

DIOMED VERDICT: FASHIONABLE GAL is hard to oppose.

Battered into 1/3 always a good sign. 2 2nds last 2 runs includes an important all weather run at Wolves so surface should hold no concerns. Only 3 under 20/1 includes Cabuchon for old Barney Curley. Should place surely?Only concern is the rise in trip from a max of 9 furlongs to 10 furlongs today.

255 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Quaquo De Flotte, 2/1 Raggletagglegypsy, 5/1 Lady Olwyn, 12/1 Garryowen Oscar, 14/1 Smile Crocodile, 25/1 Likearollingstone, 33/1 Benfit Way, Indian Spinner, Kilcross Boy.

Mullins/Mullins odds on in a bumper in Ireland - nuff said!!
Conditions though make be softer than advertised. The rain and wind have been relentless here in Kerry,

300 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs High Benefit, 7/1 Richmond, 8/1 Prince Of Denial, 10/1 Bishophill Jack, Jumpjack Flint, 14/1 Escape Exit, Thoresby, 16/1 Tanwood Boy, 20/1 Light Dragoon, 25/1 Crackerjac Boy, Niceboy, Superior Knight, 33/1 Great Hero, 50/1 Atared, 100/1 Dark Haven, Master Paddy, Sourchamp, Supreme Oscar.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opening for bumper winner HIGH BENEFIT

Huge price gapper slightly deflated in the live market 8/11 - - - - 4/1 but one of only 2 under 12/1
High Benefit comes from the repsected Alan King stable. No Chocolate Thornton?Yet another bumper winner who is a novice hurdle debutant but extremely well fancied.

355 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Quel Esprit, 9/4 Torphichen, 8/1 Lismakeery, 14/1 Golden Alou, Kusadasi, Le Reveur, Six Of Us, 16/1 Sky Captain, 25/1 Slippers Percy, 33/1 Clare Gent, Jackieandy, Oscar Rabbit, 50/1 Archdeed, Chief Valuer, Just Regard, Smooth Notion,

As you will read in November's WRWM, Quel Esprit is highly fancied at the Mullins yard.
"

QUEL ESPRIT

This horse was also included in last year’s notebook; it proved to be a good decision as the horse won some nice races for us. Quel Esprit was thought of being a serious Cheltenham contender but fell early in the Neptune. The horse will go over fences this year, Willie Mullins always thought he would be best over fences and believes that he will take plenty of beating not only in Ireland, but where ever he goes at Cheltenham."

Beginners chase today - take the hint? Only 3 under 16/1 and not ran since Cheltenham fall in March. Again remember this is Limerick and it has been raining solidly the last 2 days.

SHORTLIST
Again we face heavy ground today at Hexham, and I would be amazed were Limerick's ground not to enter the heavy zone at some stage.

430pm - Croatia v Malta - 1.03 - 1.23 halftime/fulltime Croatia/Croatia or 1.3 over 2.5 goals. Malta have conceded 3 or more in 8 of their last 12 matches . Trading 1.3 over 2.5 goals is much more preferable.
DWDWDDWDDWDW - halftime results for Croatia in last 12. DDWWWWDW halftime home results recently.Lots of wins there.
DLDLLWLLD recently for Malta at halftime.
Will they hold out for the draw at halftime? You would expect a 1.03 side to score in the first half surely?
430pm - Finland v San Marino - -1.03 - can Finland be trusted with the enhanced bets? They lost 2-0 to the same team that beat San Marino.

730pm - Sweden v Germany - 2.24 away - solid home form for Sweden makes backing Germany to trade (score first or lead at some stage) highly speculative but they have done the business when similarly priced recently and I have cursed not backing them to trade.

200 WARWICK - -simply put faith in the market that the top 4 under 20/1 will be the ones fighting for the places. 1.56 for Don't turn bach to place -I would approach this as a trader in running if he shows some of the speed of his bumpers early doors, we could nick 10-15 ticks.

Habbie Simpson has a recent hurdles win and is the same price to place as Don't turn Bach.

250 LINGFIELD - outstanding place only chance. 2 2nd places include one on all weather. Only concern 1 furlong rise in trip. 1.33 to win, 1.08 to place. I would have preferred a little bigger. Dare we risk the 1.33 in a maiden for the win?

255 LIMERICK - Quagquo de flotte is 1.2 to place and has a reasonable chance as a horse from the Mullins yard. A bumper so no obstacles. 5/6 in the market 9 runners and only 3 under 12/1

300 WARWICK - 1.18 to place this High Benefit is translating bumper form over obstacles for the first time.

355 LIMERICK - long absences and 2 clear outstanding recruits to chasing. Will they be fit? Quel Esprit is around 1.13 to place in an illiquid betting market. A little short for a beginners chase and long absence but clearly a very good prospect.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST