21/11

Fionnegas is a stand out horse today who should win , but a shorter trip, heavy ground, a beginners chase and absence to overcome puts me off. The trainer's record over the week gone though is compelling.
This leaves the football.

*****ONE A DAY -
3pm - Copenhagen v Nord- back over 1.5 goals at 1.23 - FC Copenhagen have scored 5,3,3,4,3 in their last 5 matches, and scored 5,3,4 in their last 3 home matches. I hope this winning streak continues*****

can be traded.


Easy night for Real Madrid. At home they will either win or draw so we always have a 50/50 shout.

1pm - Giannina v Ionikos - 1.27 home - greek 2nd division - 10 wins and a draw in last 11 - 6 game winning run - opponents rather inconsistent. LDDDLLWWLW -have won 3 of their last 4 so maybe now is not a good time to oppose?
6 home wins on the trot - last 2 matches ( league and cup) were 1-0 where previous winning home matches saw 3 goals scored on 3 occasions. Do we trust them to repeat the latter scorelines today or is the 1-0 symptomatic of opponents' defensive nature against them?
1pm - Levadiakos v Ilioupolis - 1.27 home - another greek 2nd division match - home team's last 3 matches have featured 1-1, and 2 1-0 scorelines so not for me thanks.
130pm - Heerenveen v Willem II - 1.32 home - 6,5,4,4,5 the goals scored in head to heads - a goals bet safer? 1.44 over 2.5 goals - in running but unmanaged markets. Tradeable therefore. Topsy turvy last 3 head to heads . Heer won last one 4-2, lost one before 4-1 and won the one before than 4-2.
LWWDDWW at home for Heerenveen in an inconsistent season so far.
11 losses and 2 draws for Willem II so we hopefully can rely on them conceding at some stage.
85% of matches have been over 2.5 goals.
130pm - Waalwijk v Maastricht - 1.31 home - dutch 2nd division - I would prefer to focus on top flight leagues unless there is a standout piece of form or pattern of form.
2pm - Trabzonspor v Eskisehirspor - 1.32 home - quite a surprise to me to see this lot at the top - where are the usual suspects Fenerbache and Galatasary? 9 wins, 2 draws and a solitary loss is the reason they are top - 6 game winnings streak -5 wins and an anomolous 3-1 loss at home. More likely to win than lose and no draws at home.
Last head to head Eski won 1-0 in April 2010 and prior to these ,Trab won 5.
Have only lost 2 at home in last 12, and one of those was against Liverpool. Have won last 3 at home, beating Galatasary and Besiktas.
Only 2 wins for Eski all season and they are playing an in form team today away from home, LLDWL away from home, latest reversal was 4-2 win by Fenerbahce. Have only played 2 of the top 5 away from home but lost both games 4-2 and 2-1.
Do we trust an obviously in form Trabonspor today with their solid recent winning form, and formidable home record over the last 12 matches. Is the 1-0 Eski win last time out in head to heads to be dismissed ?
3pm - Copenhagen v Nord- 1.32 home- 1st against 10thof 12 in the Danish top flight.
Unbeaten all season and DWWDWWWWW at home. 6,4,5,3,5 b- last 5 games' goals totals. 1.23 over 1.5 goals becomes interesting.
WLLWLDLL away from home. In 5 of last 6 head to heads Nord did not score against Copenhagen and Copenhagen scored 2 on 3 occasions and 3 in the 3 other head to heads.
3pm - Sparta Prague v Ceske Budejovice - 1.25 home - no thanks - head to heads show Ceske winning the last 2 . Possibly layable Sparta at a short price if head to heads signal this Ceske are their bogey team.
4pm - APOEL v Doxa - 1.22 home - APOEL have won their last 6, 2 5-0 wins sandwich 3 1-0 wins and those latter scorelines of some concern as they are precarious. WDDDWW recent form for Doxa - I would prefer to see poorer form if taking APOEL's odds. APOEL have won their last 9 at home but watch out , last 2 were 1-0's
6pm - Moreirense v Porto - 1.24 away - rely again on one of the most inform teams in Europe - backable until they lose? Portugeuse Cup match so we have to have faith that Porto, with their current winning mentality would want to field a strong side and continue winning. 2 draws and 10 wins in last 12 for Porto, one draw was against besiktas when they had already battered them and thus secured victory in the Europa League.
7 of Moreirense's last 8 home matches have been under 1.5 goals. A sign of a tight outfit hard to break down at home. A recipe for disaster in a Cup match for the red hot favourites?
1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 last 5 matches at home.
7 wins and a draw in last 8 for Porto.
I would be looking at the team news here - if it is the first team, then Porto could be backed and perhaps traded if they make the breakthrough. Perhaps this is a game to take out 0-0 insurance as well?

Luckily today the early races are unappetising so , although the message will be received after the beginning of racing, I personally see the race types as bad betting mediums, from maiden hurdles to handicap chases.

215 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Jetson, 4/1 Eight Is My Number, 6/1 Gagewell Flyer, 8/1 Captain Paulie, Meitheamh, 10/1 Buck Barrow, Trupenny Bit, 12/1 Perfectly Composed, 14/1 Nearest The Pin, 16/1 Ricardian, Spruce Cottage, 20/1 Carrigeen Eile, Castel Moton, Charlie Swift, 25/1 Midnight Present, 33/1 Brookville, 50/1 Cute N´Willin, 66/1 Silver Doll.

Some 15 races in and the first race of marginal interest,following my argument that a horse who is so short in such a big race ( numbers wise) must have something to him.

Now evens in places.

315 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Fionnegas, 5/1 Lastoftheleaders, 7/1 Rahan De Marcigny, Uncle Tom Cobley, 12/1 Smoking Aces, 25/1 Puddencullinan, 33/1 City Of Doral, Hughies Grey, Western Island, 50/1 Hidden Crack, 100/1 Bobs Way

Heavy ground a concern here, but these Mullins short priced favourites over the week gone have, to my recall, all won. More of the same? Not run since April and last 2 races have been on good ground.


SHORTLIST

Lost of sub 8 runner races today means that, over jumps, we do not have the insurance of the 3rd place. Handicap chases and races where the fav is 6/1 makes for a very tricky day indeed.

315 NAVAN - Fionnegas must be shortlisted based solely on the winning streak of the Mullins stable in Ireland at present. There are niggles today in the heavy ground, and the fact Fionnegas has not run since April 2010 where his last 2 runs were on good ground.
17 furlongs today - last 2 trips have been 20 and 24 furlongs. A beginners chase too but " the class act in the race"
Interestingly there is some £800 waiting to back Fionnegas to place , which for an Irish race some 3 hours hence is a positive sign.

130pm - Heerenveen v Willem II - 1.32 home - this is another case of in form v out of form , hence the short price. This match is in running but in an unmanaged market.
I would have liked over 1.5 goals bet here but only over 2.5 goals is offered. I would trade this if there are early goals. Can we rely on Heerenveen to beat the bottom side without a win all season?

2pm - Trabzonspor v Eskisehirspor - 1.32 home - another solid in form home team at the head of the league. 6 game winning streak and I would like to trade again if Trab lead at any stage.

3pm - Copenhagen v Nord- 1.32 home - goals bet looks great here - over 1.5 goals for safety at 1.23 in the hope that Copenhagen continue their excellent goal scoring streak. Tradeable again with a very early goal.

6pm - Moreirense v Porto - 1.24 away - trust a mightily in form Porto to win this Cup match against Division 2 opponents. Concern with the home team's tight matches at home, where they have a tendency to not concede.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Fionnegas comes with risks attached today - Beginners chase ( L plates on), heavy ground , an absence since April 2010 but this is a class horse from a stable that is booting in the winners. Has stable number one Townend in the saddle and is a real speculative bet in hope rather than expectation.

130pm - Heerenveen v Willem II - 1.32 home - 2 draws away in their last 3 matches may be a glimmer of hope. I would back Heerenveen here and hope they score first, then I would trade.

3pm - Copenhagen v Nord- 1.32 home - over 1.5 goals at 1.23 looks very good for a HOME TEAM who have had over 1.5 goals in all bar 1 of their last 11 matches. 88% of Nord's away matches have been under 2.5 goals but 6/8 have been over 1.5 goals.

6pm - Moreirense v Porto - 1.24 away - team news important here - a 1st team for Porto should ensure victory. May be a 0-0 insurance bet just incase Moreirense show their solid defensive attitude.