back-lay-trade-horses-football: 26/11

*****ONE A DAY - 330 MUSSELBURGH - First Rock to place only*****
1.16 to place and a hope that the 3 under 16/1 will dominate with odds on First Rock placing at least ( having placed twice)
Always a danger with bumpers that there are dark horses lurking ( as there can be stable gambles)

No problem with Silver Gypsy.

1230 - Lokomotiva v Hrvatski Dragovoljac - 1.44 home - Croatian Top flight - strong favs have only won 3 in last 12, drawn 1 and lost 8! And they are 1.44. Are their opponents playing with blindfolds on?
This is 14th against 16th ( bottom) - how can we trust 14th place to be consistent?
Away side have lost 9, drawn 2 and won 1 in their last 12 matches. This is in running.
In 5 of the away side's last 8 matches, Hrv have conceded 6,4,4,3,3 - perhaps a goals bet today?

7pm - Dordrecht v Almere - 1.41 home - 12th against 17th - 10 of Dordrecht's last 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
They have only won 1 game at home.
Almere have only won 2 all season.
LLLWLLL away matches for Almere this season.
71% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Not in running No head to heads under the name "Almere" but there were head to heads under "Omniworld"
7pm - Helmond Sport v Fortuna Sittard - 1.31 home - 5th against bottom , hence the short price.Home side have only won 2 at home in 7, and lost 4-2 to 3rd bottom Almere at home. Inconsistent. The only reason they are so short is because Fortuna are poor.

0-0, 0-4 ( Helmond win) , 3-1 ( Fortuna win), 2-2 in last 4 head to heads is hardly compelling for Helmond Sport.
Helmond have not won in their last 4 matches . LDLL
DDLWLL at home in last 6 matches at home is poor. But glass half full? Well this losing sequence could end today.

1 win, 2 draws and 9 losses in last 12 for Almere.LLDLLL in last 6 matches.
6,5,3,6,3,4,3,3,4,3,4,6 the goals in Almere's last 12 matches.
They have conceded 4,4,3,3 in last 4 matches.
Have lost 10, drawn 2 in last 12 away matches.
4,3,3,3,2,3,3,3,3,2 goals conceded away ( latest first)

Trust an out of form at home Helmond against proven conceders? But 0-0 last time in head to heads. Oh what a conundrum!!
745pm - Breda v PSV - 1.51 away - only 1 loss in last 12 for PSV in all competitions and that was against Twente. Drew last time v Ajax 0-0 - pretty much stalemate against 2 balanced sides.
WDDWWWD away for PSV , so lay Breda?
PSV have not won away in head to heads v Breda. LLD

Breda are relatively solid at home, beating Twente 2-1, 6 wins, draw and loss at home.
6 wins in their last 7 home matches are good for Breda.

Only 1 draw in last 12 matches for both sides.

1230 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Dolatulo, 9/2 Smad Place, 6/1 On Khee, 12/1 Missionaire, 20/1 Professeur Emery, 33/1 Meglio Ancora, 100/1 Cuts Both Ways, Joan´s Legacy, Lamps.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is no open goal for the penalised DOLATULO but there was a lot to like about the way he went about his business at Sandown.

4 under 25/1 here and a strong market leader for Nicholls and McCoy.1.09 to place
Smad Place perhaps the value alternative as this should be 4 horses under 25/1

125 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Stratton Banker, 7/2 Clear Praise, 9/2 Cape Royal, 8/1 Cloth Ears, 10/1 Schoolboy Champ, 12/1 Six Diamonds, Triple Dream, 14/1 Fromsong, Wanchai Whisper, 16/1 Avonvalley.

DIOMED VERDICT: It's not hard to be drawn to STRATTON BANKER who looked unlucky last time and is still unexposed at this trip. Fellow 3yo Clear Praise is also open to more progress.

Consistent placer and 13/8 and all red. 5 furlong handicap on the all weather exposes tardiness.

210 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Celestial Halo, 6/4 Spirit River, 6/1 Cois Farraig, 10/1 On Borrowed Wings, 14/1 Erzen.

DIOMED VERDICT: SPIRIT RIVER went a long way in a short space of time over hurdles and could be a very smart novice chaser in the making.

Remember Celestial Halo? faller on chase debut when 1/4. Has fallen in last 2 races , so from a sequencing perspective we should not expect him to fall again - surely?

255 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Kosta Brava, 11/4 The Cockney Squire, 7/1 Bob´s Dream, 10/1 Follow The Sun, 16/1 Kit Carson.

DIOMED VERDICT: KOSTA BRAVA is not a particularly safe conveyance over fences but comes here in good form and has been found a good opportunity to gain his second win in this sphere. The Cockney Squire looks the most likely danger.

4 horses and 2 places. Kosta is now 1/3 - a chase race." not a particularly safe conveyance" - not too confident

330 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 First Rock, Pompan, 5/1 Thurnham, 20/1 Big Sam, Blazing Bay, Plutonium, 25/1 Little Fifi, 50/1 Lemon Queen, Tobayornottobay.

DIOMED VERDICT: First Rock looks likely to put up a strong resistance but POMPAN made a promising debut in what already looks a hot contest at Uttoxeter last month and it's reasonable to expect he can improve with that experience under his belt.