The horse must place with a clear round - this is a 3 mile chase and a fall is always in the shadows, hopefully not today.
Another failure yesterday and quite clearly I am in bad form.
I will do my normal look at racing but think it is better to wait for the weekend and a hope that the football will provide safer options than novice hurdles which get won by a fight out between 100/1 and 28/1 shots.
100 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sprinter Sacre, 100/30 Made In Time, 7/2 Frascati Park, 6/1 Poungach, 15/2 Imperial Circus, 9/1 Easter Meteor, 14/1 Lidar, 28/1 Buffalo Creek, 33/1 Beefeater, 50/1 Hawkaller, Whispering Jack, 100/1 Humbel Times.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A useful novice hurdle which may go to SPRINTER SACRE\, if he shows something close to his good bumper form on this first start over obstacles. 3 under 12/1 and 4 under 20/1 but this was similar to yesterday's race in which 2 outsiders dominated. Always the concern with novice hurdlers. Front 3 on paper are solid looking, Sprinter is a bumper horse for Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson -he has no hurdles form so reliance must be on the market and the stable's reputation. Made in Time has McCoy up and it is Frascati Park that interests me for Paddy Brennan and Twiston-Davies. 3rd in a class 1 group 2 last time, he has been running in better class company in last few runs and , importantly, has hurdles experience. 150 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Watamu Bay, 5/1 Penn Da Benn, Tarateeno.
|
Is he backable for the win? A winner on heavy and soft so will handle today's soft ground.
210 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Megastar, 7/2 Koup De Kanon, 6/1 Smokey Oakey, 10/1 Marvo, 12/1 Ebony Diamond, 25/1 Highly Regal, 40/1 By Command, 66/1 Karingabay Queen.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MEGASTARp was easily the best of these in bumpers when a Grade 2 winner at Aintee in April and should be hard to beat in a very ordinary race for this track, if taking to hurdles. |
The negatives are clear " if taking to hurdles" - yet another strong bumper contender on hurdles debut,do we follow the market and the hype and hope he takes to hurdles or do we leave alone in the knowledge we simply are gambling on the horse's ability to jump hurdles fluently.
On a positive note, 8 runners and 3 places means this is a good place only race.
310 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Go Silver Bullet, Ormus, 7/1 Folk Tune, Ormello, 10/1 Cybora, 14/1 Baaher.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GO SILVER BULLET has plenty in his favour on this first run after a break and he's taken to beat Ormus. |
Fav is a non runner - do we automatically default to original joint fav Ormus?
355 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Aegean Dawn, 6/1 Hibiki, 15/2 Mille Chief, 12/1 Spring Jim, 16/1 Afsoun, Dr Livingstone, 20/1 Alhaque, Dani´s Girl, Secret Dancer, Tuanku, Wingman, 33/1 Benfleet Boy, Simply Blue.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It is very hard to see beyond unbeaten AEGEAN DAWN, who is 16lb well in according to the BHA handicapper after sluicing up at Cheltenham last week. |
Big price gapper and drop in trip from 2 mile 5 furlongs back to 2 miles. Quite a significant drop in trip but looks a handicap good thing?
600 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Giants Serapis, 5/2 Memphis Tennessee, 4/1 Sportsmaster, 6/1 Sonapour, 14/1 Ohwhatalady, Thunder Gulf, 16/1 Black Belt, Maggie Neary, 20/1 Indian Luck, Lady Geraldine, 25/1 Key Account, Valbonne, 33/1 Grainne Whale, Princess Theophane
4 under 20/1 , Memphis is Aiden O'Brien's horse and is the provisional fav. Giants Serapis seems to have the experience in the bag and is close 2nd favourite.
615 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Opus Dei, 11/2 Tsar Bomba, 7/1 Luisa Tetrazzini, Ruler´s Honour, 12/1 Crimson Queen, Drumcliffe Dancer, Hidden Destiny, 16/1 Cheshire Lady, 18/1 Jemimaville, 25/1 Hyden, 33/1 Ironwud, Rabbie Burns, 66/1 Orpen Lady.
Opus dei is a prominent price gapper -2nd fav a non runner should help matters. Has 2 2nd places in handicap company and is now back in maidens after a good course 2nd last time out.
630 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Long Live The King, 9/2 Narjawa, 6/1 Imperial Rome, Miss Windley, 8/1 Brown Butterfly, 14/1 Ocean Bluff, Union City Blues, 20/1 Cognac Lady, Come O´Er The Sea, Kildare Kitten, Midador, 25/1 Molly Me, 33/1 Flight Of Horus, Lady Bennett,
Another Ballydoyle favourite and one of only 5 under 25/1 as I write. Has a good probability chance, therefore , of placing.
830 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Herostatus, 9/2 Oneeightofamile, 13/2 Champion Boy, 8/1 Celendine, Hawk Flight, 10/1 Alajan, Are You The One, 12/1 Run With The Wind, Solo Performer, Total Victory, 14/1 Summerlea, 16/1 All On Board, 33/1 Lord Chancellor.
2nd fav a non runner and Herostatus sees Johnny Murtagh ride for Mark Johnston on one of Johnston's rare visits to Ireland.
Looks a strong candidate therefore. A horse that has run on the all weather last 4 occasions.
SHORTLIST
150 EXETER
1.29 to win and 1.11 to place this Watamu Bay. I lost discipline in not backing Fashionable Gal to place , and 1.11 in a 3 horse race for 2 places is a decent enough price for the probability. As said earlier, it is effectively a bet that Watamu will not fall or get pulled up.
355 ASCOT- trust this Aegean Dawn who is well handicapped but dropping markedly in trip.1.2 to place
600 DUNDALK - this is 4 horses under 20/1 who should be fighting out the places and obviously Memphis Tennessee and Giant Serapis are the 2 who I would focus on.
Very illiquid markets at present.
630 DUNDALK - Long live the king is another Aiden O'Brien favourite and one of 5 under 25/1 - interestingly Johnny Murtagh is on the 2nd favourite and not riding for Ballydoyle.
830 DUNDALK - Herostatus looks stand out. 1.53 is up in the place market in what is a very illiquid market. I suspect this will not be the price come 830pm and is worth taking in the hope the price drops as the market gets liquid and people realise this is a Mark Johnston horse in Ireland who has considerable all weather experience.
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