There are some huge market movers ( at least potential market movers) at current 12/1 and 14/1 who might be worth a small interest.
If pushed I think Royal Charm has the best chance of placing in his beginners chase ( chase debut) in a race where only 4 are under 50/1 leaving 4 horses, it is hoped, fighting for 2 places. A Paul Nicholls runner and a smart hurdler, but dare I remind you of the similarly profiled Celestial Halo who tipped up on chase debut?
I think I will do an update message in time for the football this evening. It will give me some breathing space to look into Twente's team news, and look at more opinion on the Stoke/Birmingham match
*****ONE A DAY UPDATE 630pm THIS EVENING in time for the Excelsior match at 7pm*****
Naughty Racing Post. Put up exactly the same colours for Kilshannig as National Trust ( i.e. McManus colours) but quite clearly different on screen! Anyhow, National Trust dominated.
Again, research is a great tool to avoid teams in poor form. Poor old Besiktas again struggling against bottom side Kasimpasa. Research can help you avoid apparent good things ( and perhaps become layers in those instants, with minimum downside. I mean, laying a 1.25 shot to win £50 will cost you £12.50 and if you know the team have found life difficult of late, well, the upside is huge!)
430pm - Slavia Prague v Viktoria Zizkov - 1.37 home - in running - Czech Cup - Division 1 v Division 2.3 draws in last 5 for Slavia, albeit all 1-1 and all away from home. Lost last home match 3-0 to 4th in the league so perhaps not such a shock.
4 losses, 1 draw and 3 wins at home in last 7 is not ideal form for Slavia. 5 of those matches were over 2.5 goals.
These 2 have already played on 27th October when it was 1-1 , both penalties which indicates potentially a tight match today. Viktoria have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 2 away in their last 8. Yes I know it is against Division 2 sides, but still it is decent away form.
5pm - Bucaspor v Malatyaspor - 1.24 home - in running - Super League v Turkish Division 2 league ( I guess the 3rd tier of Turkish football). Bucaspor are lesser lights in the top flight LLW(CUP)DLDLLDWDL in last 12. Poor league form with win coming recently in the cup, albeit 1-0.
DLDWLWDLWLL for Malatyaspor in recent games 3 wins in 11 4 of their last 5 matches have seen 1 goal or less so they are hardly prolific goalscorers.
This match is a simple case of hoping a struggling relegation Zoned Super league side has far too much ammunition with home advantage over much lower league opposition who recently have had trouble in their league re goalscoring.
5pm - Videoton v Haladas - 1.28 home - a great enhanced bet last time out in the Cup as Videoton came from 2-0 down with 10 men to win 4-2 away.
4-6-7-3 - the goals scored in head to heads in last 4. 3-1 and 4-2 wins at home for Videoton. 4-3 and 2-1 wins for Haladas when they played at home.
I always prefer, though, getting involved in Cup matches where there is a clear gulf in the leagues.
6pm - KSV Superfund v FC Lustenau - 1.39 home - I think Superfund are also known as Kapfenberg. Austrian Cup and Division 1 v Division 2. In a league of only 10, Superfund are 8th. They have won 3 of their last 4 matches in the league so if taking this Cup game seriously , they can come into it in form.
WLDDL though in last 5 at home for Superfund hardly gives them home advantage.
LLWWDWL for Lustenau - coming into this match on the back of 2 losses in Division 2.
My concern here that if the top flight has only 10 teams, then I suspect Division 2 , in terms of gulf in class, may not be too far behind
7pm - Sparta Nijkerk v Excelsior - 1.42 away - Holland Topklasse v Eridivisie. -should be a good gulf in class here to work with. 6 losses and a draw in the top flight for Excelsior - yes they are struggling. 2-2 draw with Ajax and 2-1 loss to Twente ( on both occasions they led) give some glimmer of hope and this Cup match may be a welcome distraction.
745pm - Linfield v Donegal Celtic - 1.18 home - another case of in form v out of form. Unbeaten in last 12 in all competitions v LLLWLLL for Donegal Celtic. Look at the scorelines in the Donegal Celtic matches . They have conceded 4-3-3-4-3-3-4 in last 7, and they have actually won 1 of those matches 4-5!!
Goals a safe bet therefore?
October 2010 saw 3-1 away win for Linfield in head to head. Not in running and illiquid enough market .
745pm - Stoke v Birmingham - I am going to try to look at all premiership matches as there are plentiful stats in these matches that we can perhaps sniff out a bet that is not likely if, as I usually do, I go purely by the match odds to shortlist matches. Goals the problem for both sides. Brum just 12 in 11 matches, Stoke 10 in 11 matches. A season of 3 parts for Stoke LLL followed by WWDW followed by LLLL. A glimmer of hope in the middle there.
LWDWL at home this season. Home losses came against Spurs and Man Utd so expected and both were 2-1 signalling an ability to score at home.
Head to heads are compelling. 2009 were 0-0 and 1-0, and traditionally have been either 0-0 or 1-0.
Exactly what I would expect.
Brum have only lost 2 in last 8 in all competitions. And one loss was v Arsenal. DDW ( latest first) in last 3 matches a signal of a turn around in fortunes?
DDLLD for Brum away from home. Amazingly, 80% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
This looks like defence v ,erm, defence tonight.,making 1.26 under 3.5 goals very appealing. As ever, I would approach it with a trader's head on.
Brum have not won in 10 away.
745pm - Zwolle v Twente - 1.51 away -IN RUNNING - Twente have won 7 of last 8 ( draw v Werder Bremen in Champions League) so are in good order. Zwolle have won their last 4 in Division 2. Look at the goals totals in Zwolle's matches. 3-4-6-4-4-4 in last 6.
2-2-1-3-3 the goals scored by Twente in last 5 matches. Goals anyone? 1.24 over 1.5 goals
8pm - Tottenham v Sunderland - 1.58 home - in running - no clean sheet for Spuds in their last 17 in all competitions but no Darren Bent for the Black Cats. DLWWD at home this season for Spuds. Have lost their last 2 ( Bolton a Champions League hangover?)
LDDDL away for Black Cats and this is a game of 7th v 8th.
No real trends for me that standout although the last 5 encounters have all been over 1.5 goals ( 1.29)
930pm - Figueirense v America RN - 1.32 home - in running - division 2 Brazilian league - not for me thanks.
110 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 American Ladie, 5/1 Brixen, Clarach, 11/2 Sparky May, 7/1 Blakeneys Pet, 10/1 Sworn Tigress, 12/1 The Bishops Baby, 14/1 Galant Star, 16/1 Salybia Bay, 20/1 Old Dungarvan Oak, 25/1 Free Falling, 33/1 Golbelini, 50/1 Polly´s Star.
Golbelini is 14/1 as I write, is coming off a lay off and has the profile of a potential gamble here in this novices hurdle.
130 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Carpincho, 7/2 Bravello, 8/1 Eliades Run, 14/1 Kalulushi, Rock Relief, 16/1 Ballet D´Anges, 20/1 Twice Lucky, 25/1 Seminal Moment, 33/1 Farmer Henry, Steadys Breeze, 50/1 Last Chorus, 66/1 Forrest Lemons.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CARPINCHO showed useful form in bumpers last season, notably when placed in Grade 2 company at Newbury, and can make a successful hurdling debut at this ordinary level. |
I don't know why people get excited by horses who have " useful form in bumpers" -so what? bumpers are flat races. This is a hurdles race and there are obstacles this time. Still, Carpincho is now 4/7 with next best at 9/2 with only 3 under 16/1 in the betting.
Follow the market here or acknowlege that this is a hurdles debutant.
230 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Hollo Ladies, 5/1 Benny Be Good, 6/1 Don´t Tell Nina, 8/1 Pokanoket, 14/1 Catch Bob, Monsieur Jourdain, 16/1 Terenzium, 20/1 Cockleshell Road, 33/1 Willie Martin.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Top-level winning hurdler HOLLO LADIES is an interesting recruit to Ferdy Murphy's ranks. |
Price gapper in the betting forecast. But Benny Be good has been backed down to 3/1 and there is a huge potential mover in Willie Martin into 12/1
250 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Royal Charm, 11/4 Belcantista, 4/1 South O´The Border, 13/2 Carrickboy, 25/1 Kitley Hassle, 40/1 Quicolai, Solitary Palm.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Smart novice hurdler ROYAL CHARM will be tough to beat if transferring that ability to fences at the first time of asking. |
Only 4 under 50/1 in the live betting market should leave 4 horses for the 2 places . This is a beginners chase so we must only go by the market which has Royal Charm at 8/13 favourite in what should be a 4 horse race.
SHORTLIST
5pm - Bucaspor v Malatyaspor - 1.24 home - in running -faith in the gulf in leagues here even if Bucaspor are struggling in the top flight.
5pm - Videoton v Haladas - 1.28 home -a pity this is not in running as a goals bet would be great - over 1.5 goals for me. Betfair only offers over 2.5 goals in a very illiquid market.
7pm - Sparta Nijkerk v Excelsior - 1.42 away - faith in the gulf in class? Alas a very illiquid betting market on Betfair. 1.33 at www.bet365.com obviously offers us liquidity. The 1.42 is because it is an illiquid market ( remember backers want the highest price they can get away with while layers want the shortest price to lay that they can cheekily get away with!!)
This 1.42 is likely to fall into line with bookmakers so should be tradeable in itself. I have seen this in illiquid markets before, BUT it is only reliant on Betfairian interest in this actual not in running match.
745pm - Linfield v Donegal Celtic - 1.18 home - another match I wish was in running for the goals angle. In an ideal world, Linfield should be able to replicate their 3-1 away win over this lot in October this year.
745pm - Stoke v Birmingham - under 3.5 goals is 1.26 which looks excellent and again offers us the ability to trade ( if 0-0 for a concerted period of time)
745pm - Zwolle v Twente - 1.51 away -IN RUNNING - all things being equal, this should be an easy win for a very-much-in-form- Twente. Goals may be a safer option and over 1.5 goals is 1.24 which is quite generous for Dutch football.
130 SEDGEFIELD - Carpincho certainly has the confidence of the market, and is threatening 1/2 here , all this for a horse with only bumper form ( national hunt flat races) and without a run since the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
Faith in the market? 1.17 to place really speaks volumes for the market confidence here.
250 EXETER - like yesterday's race ( albeit not as clear cut), this would seem to be a 4 horse race ( the 4 horses under 50/1) for the 2 places. Again , as this is a beginners chase ( the clue is in the title!) we would need to have some faith in the market here. Royal charm is 8/13, has Noel Fehily booked ( Ruby Walsh broken leg the reason he is not on it) and was a " smart novice hurdler". Course and distance winner who has not run since January this year. 1.27 to place - will he a) take to these bigger fences ( remember Celestial Halo!!) and 2) complete
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
THe horse races I have shortlisted both have one word which describes them well " potential" and betting on potential is effectively betting blind!!.
For those with extreme faith in the betting market rather than any real form in the spheres in which these horses are running today ( hurdles and chase debuts) then the 2 mentioned horses are standout.
7pm - Sparta Nijkerk v Excelsior - 1.42 away - a huge gulf in class here in another not in running match ( is available at bookies at about 1.33) -can Excelsior make this gulf in class count?
745pm - Linfield v Donegal Celtic - 1.18 home - not in running and you will know from previous messages ( and indeed previous losing bets which could have been salvaged with trading) that I would much prefer the safety net of in running football. It all points to an easy win for Linfield but I would have preferred a neutral goals bet here as this is Northern Ireland football and I am not fully conversant with it.
745pm - Stoke v Birmingham - under 3.5 goals is 1.26 - Stoke have only scored one goal in the first half this season.Birmingham have scored 4 and conceded only 2 in the first half this season. Yes they have had over 3.5 goals come in, BUT I am looking at this as a trader and seeing the tight 1st halves.
745pm - Zwolle v Twente - 1.51 away - we are effectively betting blind here today as far as team for Twente is concerned. A full team and I would expect a win. Over 1.5 goals at 1.24 is tradeable and involves both sides.
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