5/11

The football is extremely interesting but I think I must insist on trading from hereonin to ensure a profit. The match of interest is not in running. There is a solid argument for Go ahead eagles to beat bottom side Fortuna Sittard, and for over 2.5 goals to come in, but I would much prefer to trade if the match goes as I hope with will.
This leaves the horse racing and 135 Downroyal looks good with potentially 4 horses fighting for 3 places.
740 Wolves too looks strong

*****ONE A DAY 135 DOWNROYAL - BACK ARAUCARIA TO PLACE ONLY - 1.25 AT PRESENT*****
Of course we assume a clear round of jumping.




Easy night for PSV.

530pm - Admira Wacker v WAC St Andra - 1.29 home - 2-1 away win for Admira in sole head to head in August 2010. 2 losses, 3 draws and 7 wins for Admira in last 12 is good.
11 wins and 1 draw in last 12 at home is excellent. Coming off the back of a 7 game winning streak at home.
4,3,3,3,3,2,5, -the recent goals scored by Admira in home matches. Very consistent. A couple of 3-2 scorelines are a little unnerving.
LLLWLDLL for WAC recently is poor form.Last 3 losses have been 3-1 , which ties in with the goals Admira have been capable of scoring at home.
Have only won 2 away in last 12, and lost last 4 consecutively away from home. 3-1, 1-0, 3-2, 3-2 . Again that 3-2 scoreline.
I was going to say that this is an ideal trading game but it is not in running. Over 2.5 goals worth chancing maybe ? -but we cannot be reactive here vto early goals.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Fortuna Sittard - 1.29 home - LLLWW at home so far for the Eagles is not too hot.
83% of their home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Have a perfect record of 4 wins ( 2 home and 2 away) against bottom 8 sides. I mention this because Fortuna are bottom.
8 losses, 2 draws and a sole win this season for Fortuna. LLDLL away from home. More likely to lose than anything else away
100% over 2.5 goals at home and 100% over 2.5 goals away from home for Fortuna.
4 out of 5 times away they have conceded 3 goals.
Again a real pity this is just match odds and 2.5 goals betting and not in running as I would have been confident with an over 1.5 goals bet.
745pm - Rochdale v FC United Manchester - 1.3 home - NO! Not that Man United! This is the Unibond Northern Premier v League One Rochdale in the Cup. It depends largely on whether Rochdale can be arsed with the Cup.
4 losses in the last 5 league 1 matches - is this a match that Rochdale may be vulnerable in or is the clear league gulf going to ensure the win.
3 wins on the trot for United. But previous to those wins,LLDLLLL.
IN RUNNING and difficult to weigh up as home side are clearly out of form.




110 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Earth Magic, 2/1 Ballylanigan, 3/1 Alonso De Guzman, 14/1 Treason Trial, 25/1 Bubses Boy, Follow On, Maree Prince.

DIOMED VERDICT: Earth Magic is nowhere near a 129-rated horse on what he's shown this year and it's worth chancing that BALLYLANIGAN can handle the ground.

Now only 4 runners and Earth Magic remains from the top 2 in the market. Surely in this 50/50 race, the original short priced favourite, and one of 3 under 14/1, can place?

Of course, it is never straightforward - poor form on first inspection and heavy ground today coming from a last run in May 2010. Down in grade this earth magic.

130 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Encore Une Annee, 5/2 Raw Spirit, 3/1 Lexington Bay, 7/1 Allez Leulah, 12/1 Evelyns Diamond, 25/1 Look For Love, Szabo´s Destiny, X Rated, 50/1 Newgate Dani.

DIOMED VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor is 16-31 with second-time out juveniles this year, as well as 4-8 with the same age group on Southwell's Fibresand in the last five seasons, and RAW SPIRIT, who showed ability on debut, looks a likely improver.

Encore is 4/6 , all red and being backed this morning. Raw Spirit represents Godolphin and ever dependable Ted Durcan.
A maiden where only 4 are under 14/1 and only 5 under 20/1.
Dare we trust 2 year olds?
All of the first 4 are Southwell all weather debutants and this is a unique surface amongst the all weather venues.
Encore is apparently bred for the surface?

135 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Araucaria, 9/4 Oilily, 9/2 Macville, 8/1 Diyla, 10/1 Shop Dj, 12/1 Benefit Scheme, Flying Bella, Lizzie Bennett, 16/1 Firm Foundations, 25/1 Tovaria.

All of the front 3 have won their last 2 races. Will they dominate again here in a race where only 4 are under 20/1?

205 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Luska Lad, 5/2 Blackstairmountain, 11/4 Summit Meeting, 10/1 Gimli´s Rock, 20/1 Der Spieler, Magnum Force.

Summit meeting is all red, 5/2 and fancied here in a race which should be dominated by Luska, Black, and Summit.
High class event

230 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lucky Punt, 5/2 Grande Caiman, 5/1 Diggeratt, 6/1 State Visit, 8/1 Kimberley Downs, 16/1 Ra Junior, 33/1 Kingaroo, Special Cuvee, 50/1 Bluegrass Lion, 100/1 Little Buddy.

DIOMED VERDICT: The in-form LUCKY PUNT loves it round here and can successfully give weight away at this level.

Lucky Punt is 4/6, all red, and fancied. 6th COURSE win last time out and very important to have experience specific to Southwell.

320 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Amuse Me, 6/1 Cardinal James, 9/1 Lepido, 12/1 Forest Rhythm, Near The Water, 14/1 Posh Emily, Uncle Bunge, 25/1 Celtic Ballad, Sail And Return, 40/1 Dalrymple.

DIOMED VERDICT: AMUSE ME has a new trip and a 14lb penalty but still looks the obvious place to turn in this line-up, with Cardinal James the most likely to improve among the rest.

You will recall the monstrous price gap last time. I personally think that that was the time to catch Amuse me as he has a bigger penalty and bigger trip despite the persuader McCoy on his back.

740 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Colour Scheme, 7/4 Fashionable Gal, 7/2 Marching Home, 8/1 Star Hill, 33/1 Penbryn, 66/1 Just Zak, Kanace, 100/1 Amazingreyce, Beseech, Mororatorio, Titanic Mill.

DIOMED VERDICT: Both Colour Scheme and Fashionable Gal have shown enough to suggest they should win a race of this nature, but preference is for MARCHING HOME who will be suited by this longer trip and ran well when a staying-on third at Kempton last time. Let's put Colour scheme into context. Richard Hughes rides in the last race at Wolves instead of being in the USA to take part in the Breeder's Cup. He wants this title and again is on a market leader here who seems perfectly poised to have a winning chance. ( and therefore place!) This is a maiden race -24 form so far and not on all weather - regressed a little . 5/6 now in the betting, worth revisiting nearer the off as 2nd and 3rd favs are also of interest. Faith in Hughes here? SHORTLIST 530pm - Admira Wacker v WAC St Andra - 1.29 home - we saw with Porto last night that winning streaks end ( but Porto scored first yesterday so was a great trade) Admira are superb at home and in their last few matches have scored 3 or more. I would much prefer a trading element here as I suspect Admira will lead at some stage, but this has the potential to be a 2-1 or 3-2 and those are uncomfortable scorelines for the bet and goer. 7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Fortuna Sittard - 1.29 home - again not in running so we have to be exact where, with in running and trading, we need only the merest hint of being right in order to profit. Fortuna are bottom and ALL of their matches this season have been over 2.5 goals. 83% of Go ahead Eagles matches have been over 2.5 goals at home. 1.35 for over 2.5 goals. Again though, concern that we cannot trade this, as a 2-0 , 1-1, 0-2 will be a frustrating final scoreline and a loser to the bettor, but will make the trader a profit. Heavy ground at Hexham means I must be disciplined and leave the venue alone despite Earth Magic seeming to have a great chance of placing in a 50/50 race in the 110. 1.15 to place might be worth chancing. Down in grade to a selling hurdle here - enough to make him a bettable proposition? Southwell is such a unique surface that I am loathe to back virgins at the venue. 135 DOWNROYAL is interesting as there are only 4 horses under 20/1 and Arucaria has Ruby onboard who is as solid as ever on market leaders. 1.24 to place 205 DOWNROYAL - for those who like probability this is likely to be a 4 horse race for 2 places. I think we can thin it down further and make it between Luska Lad, (1.39 to place) Summit meeting (1.81 to place) and Blackstairmountain, (2.16 to place) 2 of whom will place - dare to take a chance on one? Follow the market here and Luska Lad? 740 WOLVES - a context bet for me on Colour scheme -Richard Hughes stays til last race at Wolverhampton while missing the Breeders Cup meeting in the US of A - Colour scheme is odds on and backed so early but has no all weather experience and regressed on 2nd run 24. Still, faith in a motivated Hughes here? MUST view the market nearer to 740 as deciding with 7 hours to go is folly. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST You saw the power of trading yesterday in the football as Porto scored first. Leverkusen got the 1-0 and the 0-0 insurance bet was majestic as the goal came in the 90th odd minute. And AC Milan lay the night before. You see why I prefer in running and trading , as it offers a safer vehicle to nail those one a days where a frustrating last minute equaliser can scupper a normal bet. Well today we have 2 matches of great interest but the only markets available are match odds and 2.5 goals and both are not in running. Were I to bet and not trade ( I can't trade!!!!) I would be taken by over 2.5 goals in the Go ahead eagles v Fortuna Sittard match. 83% of Go ahead's home matches and 100% of all of Fortuna's matches have been over 2.5 goals. Currently 1.35 in an illiquid market , it may be worth a punt but cannot be managed at, say 2 goals where a 3rd is required. I would also have considered a straight back of Go ahead eagles tonight at 1.29 were I a trader as I can see them scoring first or leading at some stage, as Fortuna have conceded 3 in 4 of their 5 away matches this season. 135 DOWNROYAL - as ever I must enter the caveat that we are presuming the horses will complete the course over jumps. If that is the case, then I suspect this race will be dominated by the 4 under 20/1 Of the 4 I would opt for safety and Ruby Walsh on 2 time hurdle winner Araucaria . Soft ground at Downroyal and Araucaria won on soft last time. Probability wise, she has a better chance of placing in the first 3 than not. 1.25 to place - the front 3 have all won their last 2 races and I hope they dominate and there are no surprises lurking from the horses 20/1 or bigger. 740 WOLVES - Colour scheme looks primed here, more because Richard Hughes is riding than anything else. He wants this title and is willing to let a lucrative Breeders Cup pay day go and wait til the last race of the night at glamourous Wolves to stand a chance of bagging another winner to close the gap on Hanagan.