back-lay-trade-horses-football: 13/11

Heavy ground today at Punchestown and Uttoxeter puts a dampener on proceedings.

*****ONE A DAY - 545pm - PSV v Excelsior - back PSV at 1.14 *****

I just knew it and was on the verge of writing an email warning. The day was going too well with the other horses. Cue card wins, Garde champetre a neck 2nd, Aegean dawn wins,Empress Orchid places 2nd, La Concorde wins and Pitkin wins. ( the shortlisters Cue card 1st, Garde champetre neck 2nd , Pitkin 1st and Taurakina 4th by a fecking neck!) It was too much to hope Taurakina would do the same. Traded extremely short in running in the place only market and swamped at the end, I just knew, with all the other horses winning and placing, that this was not going to be my day.
Sod's law strikes after some more great analysis which results in nothing.

I should have followed my instincts and left it alone

12pm - Levski Sofia v Akademik Sofia - 1.15 home - DDLLLWLDL in all competitions.
DLLWD in the league +2.5 asian handicaps and in running. No head to heads suggests away team are newcomers to the league.
Levski have only lost 2 at home in last 12 in all competitions, one a league loss, and the other a friendly loss.

Away team have won 3 of last 5, against 11th ( they are 12th), 14th and 15th and 2 were 1-0's with the other 2-0.

Is this a sign of a turn around or do we have to compensate for the fact these wins are all lower 1/3rd of this league.

145pm - Terek Grozni v Anzhi Makhachkala 1.18 away - Russian top flight - 1-0 home win in 2010 with 74th minute winner. Hardly compelling evidence to wade in at 1.18.
Prior to this, Terek won last 4 head to heads from 2008 earlier. Anzi have only won one of last 8. I really don't have a clue why they are so short away. Must have something to do with a need to avoid the relegation zone ( they are on 27 points, next lower are on 26, 26, 25, 18 )
Looks as it Anzhi's need is greater , hence the odds.

2pm - Shakhtar v Metalurg Z - 1.12 home - 1-0 own goal in the Cup on 10th november against same opponents. I mentioned re the Austrian 2nd division game that we have to be wary about teams meeting again so soon. The losers can take action immediately to stave any defensive or other errors.
Generally tight head to heads with a couple of 2--0;s to Shaktar compared with 2 1-0's and a 1-1.
Too tight really to entertain backing at 1.12. Looks very layable.

Shaktar's only loss in last 12 was against Arsenal. They have won their last 6 in all competitions.
Metalurg have won 3 of last 4 in all competitions. Metalurg have only conceded 4 in last 6 matches.
+2 asian handicap is optimistic .

3pm - Man City v Birmingham - 1.45 home WDWWLD at home this season -loss and draw came against Arsenal and Man Utd. Man City have not scored in their last 2 home matches,
5/6 away matches for Birmingham have been over 2.5 goals. 4/6 have been over 3.5 goals. REmember that amazing 1/2 time goal scoring stat - Birmingham have only conceded 3 goals in the first half in all 12 matches in the league this season. Add this to the fact Man City have not scored in their last 2 at home and we have the makings of an interesting first half trade.
Birmingham have conceded 14 2nd half goals and scored 10.
5-1 City win in April 2010 head to head ( but pay attention to the time of the year - Birmingham were safe and perhaps had foot off the gas and City were vying for 4th place)
Birmingham were so near too a 4th draw on the trot last time out.
3pm - NK Zagreb v Hrvatski Dragovoljac - 1.27 home - home side have lost 3 of their last 4 home matches. Head to heads last met 2001 so irrelevant. Away side have not won any of their last 12 matches and have lost 8 of their last 9 matches.
3pm - Rangers v Aberdeen - 1.18 - I am a glutton for punishment. But really a draw and a loss already in last 2 at home. Surely a loss again at home would not be tolerated. Why, though, were Rangers so dire mid week? The form pointed to an easy home win against a team they already beat 3-0 away?
That is the mystery.
WWWWDL at home. Sudden stuttering at home was very unexpected indeed, especially as this was the only match all season where Rangers did not score. 2-3 already to Rangers in head to heads this season. Will a goals bet be safer here , as it remains neutral?
Aberdeen are dire ( but then so were Hibs). 6 losses in last 7 includes 9-0 drubbing by Celtic.
WLDLLL away from home for Aberdeen.
2010 head to heads have seen Rangers score 3 on both occasions. 2009 head to heads were 1-0 to Aberdeen and 0-0.
1.5 over 2.5 goals covers both sides.

445pm - FC Basel v Thun - 1.35 home - 5 draws and 4 wins in last 9 - draws a big concern here for FC Basel.8 draws in 14 for Thun and this 1.35 begins to lose its interest as a bet.
5pm - Partizan Belgrade v Javor - 1.22 home - extremely tight head to heads and 6 draws, 3 wins and 3 losses in last 12 for Javor again leaves me cold. Would be a good lay price with minimal downside, or a good back of 0-0 to trade if in running.
530pm - Panathinaikos v Larissa - 1.3 home - 2nd by 1 point in the league.DWWW at home.
LLDD for Larissa away includes 2 1-0 losses and 2 1-1 draws. I was expecting a tight match, but Pana have scored 3 or more goals in 4 of last 5 matches in head to heads. At home head to heads read 4-0, 3-1, 3-0

545pm - PSV v Excelsior - 1.14 home - a change in squad for the midweek cup game should see PSV fit and healthy for this home clash with an Excelsior side who surprised Ajax before succumbing 2-2 ( they were 2-0 up) Twente are top by 1 point so all matches at home must wins for PSV.
WWWDWWL at home. The loss came against Twente in a tight 1-0.
Excelsior have not won in 8, and lost 7 of those 8 matches.
Have lost 2-1 and 2-0 to top 4 sides away from home.1.34 over 2.5 goals.
Excelsior have conceded 15 goals in the last 1/2 hour of their matches so watch out for late goals if tight early on. Excelsior have conceded 2 goals in all of their last 8 matches in all competitions so over 2.5 goals might have to be approached as a trader because it is likely to be 2-0 , on the cusp of a 3rd goal.

6pm - Marseille v Lens - 1.42 home - win takes them top for a short while. LWDWW at home this season.
WLDLD for LEns away from home. 19th/20 in the league Lens hence the short price for Marseille.
Have lost to 3rd, 5th and 6th in the league, Marseille are 4th.

9pm - Barcelona v Villarreal - 1.28 home - WDD last 3 head to heads in 2010 and 2009. 4-1 win last time. Both draws saw Barca score first, so trading an option today.
7 wins, a draw and a loss all season. LWDWW at home this season -again the draw saw Barca scoring first. The loss was an anomoly caused by Spanish squad having to play a mid week international in Buenos Aires.
7 wins, 2 draws and a loss for Villareal this season sees them 3rd placed.
Strong home form but losing points away with 2 draws and a loss. Away wins have come against 2 of bottom 3 sides.
1.14 over 1.5 goals and match odds very interesting at 1.28 to trade as Barca should lead at some stage.

RUGBY UNION - New Zealand/NewZealand halftime/fulltime is 1.16 against Scotland at 515pm

1235 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 L´Ami, 5/1 King Johns Castle, 7/1 Lord Nellerie, 12/1 Nipper John, 16/1 The Halfway Bar, 20/1 Present Citizen, 50/1 Chance Your Arm.

Enda's back with L'ami who is a top flight horse, and has a recent win on 24th October. 1.34 to place and only 2 places in this 3 mile chase but Bolger horses are used to the distance and the obstacles.
Of course a clear round is assumed.

210 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Realmont, 11/8 Silver Footnote, 12/1 Gentle Bob, 16/1 Seymour Eric, 20/1 Just Unique, Our Columbus, 25/1 Glamorous Gg, 50/1 Wheretheres A Will.

DIOMED VERDICT: If REALMONT retains a fraction of the ability that saw him finish just behind Long Run over fences in France he shouldn't be beaten. If not, mud-loving Silver Footnote should profit.

Significant non runner in the favourite surely makes life easier for Silver Footnote. 7 runners now and still 3 places, the concern is the heavy ground at Uttoxeter. Looking at the betting forecast Silver is the only alternative. In the live market however, Seymour eric becomes a 4/1 2nd favourite.
1.13 for Silver footnote. Heavy and soft ground experience but, well, only 2 runs is hardly "experience" and last ran 28th MArch 2010.

820 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Imagination, 7/2 Albertus Pictor, Star In Flight, 16/1 Loyalty, Premier League, 40/1 Spacecraft, 50/1 Between Dreams.

DIOMED VERDICT: IMAGINATION, runner-up in two starts on the surface, can make it third time lucky in an uncompetitive affair. Support for Albertus Pictor or newcomer Star In Flight should be noted.