****ONE A DAY - 1220 UTTOXETER - Silver Gypsy to place only***** - 1.11 currently.
I must comment that it looks like a strong message today. I only wish that the betting gods would spread these opportunities evenly over other days!
3 for Spurs. Nice to see Club Oceanic win too, obviously battered in by someone and spotted via 16/1 system and "all red" system
1220 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Silver Gypsy, 4/1 Lethal Glaze, 7/1 Autumn Haze, 10/1 Grey Gold, 14/1 Letmespeak, 20/1 Russian Music, 25/1 Cluain Alainn, Lordship, Short Supply, 33/1 Barrie Burn, 50/1 Frankie Falco, 100/1 Daggerman, Sacco D´Oro, South Stack.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Lethal Glaze will be a big threat if fancying the challenge but SILVER GYPSY looks the one to be with. 2nd fav out makes Silver Gypsy, 2nd to 1/3 shot L'accordioniste on heavy last time, an obvious contender now battered into 1/3 1.11 to place 1235 THURLES BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Catch Me, 5/1 Apt Approach, Clan Tara, 11/2 Lenabane, 6/1 Florida Express, 7/1 Lucky At Last, 8/1 Elysian Rock, 33/1 Lingual Cusp, Pink Suitcase. 2 non runners make Catch me interesting 110 TAUNTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 That´Ll Do, 11/4 Nicene Creed, 11/2 Yukon Quest, 10/1 My Brother Sylvest, 14/1 Nosecond Chance, 20/1 Bally Legend, 40/1 Casper´s Shadow, Flora King, 50/1 Mi Money, Shared Secret, Sheezatreasure, 66/1 Flameproof, Graduation Night, Reefer Beefer.
Only 5 under 25/1 125 UTTOX BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 My Boy Paddy, 11/4 Bled, 3/1 Back Bob Back, 5/1 Definite Dawn, 33/1 Domoly, Duke Of Ormond, Hardwick Wood, 100/1 Northorsouth.
Only 4 under 33/1 and My Boy odds on with 2 good heavy runs last time. 135 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Finian´s Rainbow, 9/4 Sang Bleu, 11/2 Hell´s Bay.
3 horses and 2 places.Simple probability in this novices chase. If the fav completes surely he has a great place only chance? 135 THURLES BETTING FORECAST: Evs Uncle Junior, 5/1 Western Charmer, 8/1 Fen Game, 10/1 Eagle´s Pass, Prairie Call, 12/1 Gentle Alice, Maryiver, Renewed Challenge, 14/1 Le Reveur, 20/1 Beneficial Spirit, Mountain Lough, Toby Ben, 33/1 Drive On Jim, First In Line, Old Sars Hall, Waltzing Tornado, Has chase experience and is a price gapper for Mullins. The last Mullins horse I mentioned had many negatives, but this guy has recent chase experience. 210 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Zarrafakt, 13/2 Flemish Invader, Prince Geeno, 15/2 Sound Stage, 8/1 Buffalo Bob, 9/1 Sir Ian, 12/1 Nostringsattached, Thetwincamdrift, 14/1 Or Bleu, 25/1 Regal Heights, 40/1 The Vicar.
Price gapper ahead of handicapper in this handicap chase. 350 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Balding Banker, 7/2 Gospel Preacher, 4/1 Flowerdew, Nomansland, 16/1 Next Man In, 25/1 Virginia Rose Wood, 33/1 Fourovakind, No Obligation, 50/1 Ellie Wiggins.
The market usually is important here and Nomansland has leapfrogged 3 to become fav , all red, evens in places in a race where only 4 are under 25/1 A bumper so , as I say, market consultation important. 410 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Laser Ruby, 7/1 Dower Glen, Woodwind, 8/1 Boy The Bell, La Chemme, Ruler´s Honour, 10/1 Aurora Lights, Mighty Aphrodite, 14/1 Lily Wood, 16/1 Gessabelle, 50/1 Aim´Ees Star, 100/1 Rose De Rita.
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Huge price gapper here in Laser Ruby, now 8/13 with next best 7/1 - tells you the market's feeling about this maiden!
610 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Crimson China, 3/1 Bow River Arch, 4/1 Lexington Bay, 9/1 History Girl, Riot Police, 10/1 Bassett Road, 16/1 Double Duchess, Pretty Diamond, 20/1 Samarkand, 33/1 Round Turn.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda has a good strike-rate with 2yos here and that tips the scales in favour of BOW RIVER ARCH. |
This time there are 2 price gappers 11/8 and 13/8 with next best 9/1 - will Crimson China anda Bow River arch dominate this maiden?
FOOTBALL
5pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.18 - these frauleins are as dominant as their male colleagues and this 1.18 looks a great bet. An international friendly. Last time these 2 met in 2008 , Germans prevailed 1-0.
Germany have only lost 3 in their last 12, and those 3 were all against the USA. 1-0, 2-3, 4-0
3,4,8,1,3,4,7,5,5,4,5,3 the goals scored in Germany's last 12 matches. Only once under 2.5 goals.
Nigeria have won their last 7 on the trot, but it was in the Women's African Championship
Previous to those it's 3 losses and a draw against international opposition but way back in 2008 and 2007 so what relevance it has on today's preceedings I don't know.
In running.
5pm - Lazio v Albinoleffe - 1.22 home -Italian Cup - Division 1 v Division 2. Lazio have only lost 2 in their last 12 matches.
LWLLD for Albinoleffe in their last 5 matches -a little off the boil?
Go with the market here? There are no real patterns and no head to heads so a case of faith in DIvision 1? WDWWLW at home in the league this season is good enough form.
Only loss via Roma in the Rome Derby.
Albinoleffe have lost 7, drawn 3 and won 2 away from home this term.
SHORTLIST
1220 Uttoxeter you already know about
110 TAUNTON - only 5 under 25/1 should offer us some reasonable probabilities of success.
Faith in Nicholls' That'll do at 1.12 to place?
125 UTTOXETER - as you can appreciate, I don't want to go to a heavy ground venue too often, but this race is ideal.8 runners = 3 places and there are only 4 horses under 33/1. Logic would dictate that, barring accidents, the 4 under 33/1 should dominate and thus place.
My Boy Paddy has run on heavy last twice, was 2nd to Kilcrea Kim who has since won at Ffos Las on 22nd November. 1.14 to place and clear in the place only market.
This is a race where you could do your research amongst the other 3 under 25/1 who are 1.46, 1.71, and 1.72 to place and see if you can get another placer at better value odds.
After all, the 4 under 33/1 should have as equal a chance of placing.
135 NEWBURY - -this is quite simply a probability race. There are 3 horses and 2 places on Betfair.
Quite a conundrum. The 2 principles are, as ever, smart hurdlers but the outsider has the chase experience. Go with the market and Finian's Rainbow?1.16 to place with the excellent Barry Geraghty in the plate.
350 NEWBURY - only 4 under 25/1 and Nomansland has gone to 10/11 even as I write this message, from evens earlier in the message!!
1.2 to place in this national hunt flat race ( no obstacles) and ably assisted by up and coming AP McCoy ( watch out for him in the future!!)
410 WOLVES - Laser Ruby is quite standout the best price gapper of the day.8/13 - - - 9/1 in this maiden. These big price gappers normally do the business and this is the only horse ( 1.13 to place) under evens in the place only market.
5pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.18 - only losses for the Germans have come, on 3 occasions in last 12 matches, against the USA. All others have been victories, and no draws.
Nigerians have a 7 game winning streak, but we must put into context - Africans Women's Championship and some poor quality opposition.
1.18 looks good but we have to remember this is a friendly match and we have no real news as regards team news etc.
5pm - Lazio v Albinoleffe - 1.22 home -Italian Cup - again this is faith in the market. I cannot tell you if Lazio are taking this seriously, but what I can tell you is that Lazio are in good form, and are Seria A v Seria B with home advantage today.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1220 UTTOXETER - I thought with the nearest market rival out, form franked by L'accordioniste, proven in heavy ( and this is the first race of the day so the ground will not have cut up) that Silver Gypsy was worth the 1.11 place only status and should place today barring accidents.
135 NEWBURY - 3 horses and 2 places - if they all complete, your selection will have a better chance of placing than not. But who to choose? It is a novices chase after all!!
350 NEWBURY - long time sufferers ( or should that be readers) will know by now that the market is all in these bumpers , and Nomansland has been backed consistently this morning - 11/10 when I started the message, evens mid way through, and now 10/11. A sign? Interesting too as this bumper sees only 4 under 25/1
410 WOLVES- Laser Ruby is the best price gapper of the day by far and is included for that reason. When you see a price gap of 8/13 - - - -- 9/1 it must recount confidence of some kind, surely?
5pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.18 - dominant in women's football and have only lost to one side ( albeit 3 times) in last 12, winning 9 of them. Nigeria are fit after their African Championship and have the winning habit, but will the Germans have too much. BEar in mind this is a friendly so is largely irrelevant and lacking in any motivating factor.
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