My other ultra good looking football bet would be Real MAdrid v Athletico Madrid, over 1.5 goals at 1.14. This should oblige. More speculative would be over 2.5 goals at 1.45 and hope for 2 or more 1st half goals to allow trade. I would consider backing Real At 1.31 ONLY AS A TRADE - i.e. back them and hope they lead at some stage ( look at the 2 3-2's last 2 head to heads and you will see why I would like them as a trade only)
Barca look good tonight against Getafe who have won 3 of 4 so over 1.5 goals at 1.22 might be a good bet, albeit to trade again.
Bobby Bullock is the horse I would take out of today . But a marked rise in trip today is offputting -faller and 6th last time he tackled 3 miles 1 furlongs is unconvincing - did he win only because of the drop to 2 mile 3?
*****ONE A DAY - 8pm - Real Madrid v Athletico Madrid - Back over 1.5 goals at 1.14*****
Speculators can try over 2.5 goals ( 1.45) , over 3.5 goals ( 2.02) ONLY with trading in mind. I would also back Real Madrid and hope they lead at some stage to trade only.
Twente won and Zenyatta a very unlucky 2nd in a superb Breeders Cup Classic.
Starting the blog a bit late as Ajax and Rangers ( midday) are reasonable one a dayers.
130pm - Arsenal v Newcastle - 1.34 home - WWLWW at home for Arsenal this season. A win today takes them 2nd. 2 goals in the last 2 minutes in 2 of their last 3 matches masks the wins. 1-0 v West Ham with 88th minute winner is hardly compelling evidence to back at 1.34. Losses have come against West Brom ( unexpected) and Chelsea ( expected I suppose)
LDWLW away for Howaythelads . Lost 3-0 to Man Utd and 2-1 to Man City. We could argue that this is the benchmark for Arsenal today. I am concerned with the 88th minute 1-0 v West Ham, was that down to that being a derby? - IN RUNNING
2pm - APOEL v Alki Larnaca - 1.17 home - last head to head was Feb 2009 and 3-1 to APOEL which ties in with the 1.17 quote which normally signals a 2,3 goal winning margin.
Have only lost 2 in their last 12, including a Europa League qualifier. ASians start at +1.5 goals - IN RUNNING. Good 4 game winning streak for Apoel and 6 game current unbeaten run ( 5 wins and a draw).
Have lost only once at home in last 12, and won last 8 at home in all competitions. Beware there are a smattering of 1-0's typical I suppose of Greek based leagues.
2 1-0's in last 4 league matches at home.
Alti have only won 2 in their last 12. DDLLWL current run ( latest first) 0-0, 1-1 draws and 2-1 losses recently so can put up a fight.
Last 4 away scorelines have been 2-1 ( 2 wins and 2 losses)
Perhaps rather than the 1.17 APOEL, perhaps the 1.17 over 1.5 goals ( illiquid market at present) as Alki seem adept at scoring.
2pm - Dinamo Kiev v Obolon - 1.15 home - in running - now 1.14 - asians start at 1.14 DWW in 2010 and 2009 head to heads. With the draw ( 2-2) Kiev were 2-0 up away from home. So perhaps a trade if they take the lead just ensures history is not repeated?
6 game winning streak in all competitions. 2 losses, 1 draw and 9 wins in last 12 - great form for Kiev. WWWLWW in the league ( latest first) - only loss v Shaktar which is not unexpected.Unbeaten at home in last 11. 4 game winning run at home.
LWDLLL last 6 for Obolon. Last 3 matches have been over 2.5 goals so a safer goals bet here includes both sides? Tradeable as in running.
2pm - Servette v Yverdon - 1.28 home
3pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Zadar - 1.18 home - MATCH ODDS ONLY - last 2 head to heads have been 0-0 - a bogey team for Zagreb? 2 of Zadar's last 3 have been 1-0 scorelines. I would prefer a 0-0 insurance bet here but it is not available.
3pm - FC Copenhagen v AC Horsens - 1.36 home - 12 wins , 2 draws this season ( both draws at home) - Have won their last 4 at home, and won last 6 on the trot.
Scored 3-3-5 in their last 3 matches.
LWLWLWW away from home for Horsens is excellent form. Won last 2 away matches, and coule put up stern opposition for Copenhagen?
1.2 over 1.5 goals is interesting given Horsen's away record ( I would hope that FC Copenhagen can fight back if going a goal down)
330pm - Helsingborgs v Kalmar FF - 1.39 home - Hels have only lost one a home this season. Won last 3 scoring 4-3-3.
Again 2 wins for Kalmar and a draw in last 3 head to heads makes this unappealing for me. 2nd Swedish match where head to heads are offputting. Kalmar beat Malmo recently away 1-0 so can up their game. No bet for me.
330pm - Malmo FF v Mjallby - 1.33 home - Mjallby have won the last 3 head to heads and drawn the 4th - bogey team? Leave this alone. I thought I would investigate as Malmo were excellent last weekend but seeing the head to heads it's a case of " Run away, run away!!"
4pm - CSKA Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.27 home - won 2010 and 2009 3 head to heads. 1-0 away win for CSKA with 10th minute penalty hardly compelling, but prior to that, 2 3 goal wins v this lot.
3 draws on the trot in the league is a major concern. - 2 0-0's and a 1-1. WHere has all the goalscoring gone?
LWDWW for opponents recently is good form. And today may not be the day for CSKA backers to hope for a win if they have only scored 1 in their last 3 league games ( did score 3 in Europa league latest though)
430pm - Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV - 1.17 home - WWDW in last 4 matches for Debrecen. LWLLLLL for away side indicate they are out of form. +2 goal asian handicap signals market expects Debrecen to win here against an out of form away side,
6pm - Getafe v Barcelona - 1.39 away - 7 game unbeaten run and have won all 4 away matches this season .3-2-3-2 scored in those 4 matches, 3-1 and 3-0 against 10th and 12th in the league. Getafe are 11th.
Barca have won last 3 head to heads and last 2 aways head to heads 2-0 and 1-0 so perhaps trade out if Barca score first or lead at any stage as 1-0 is a precarious scoreline.
WLWW for Getafe at home, but against teams 13th and lower in the league. But scored 3-3-4 in those matches which is good form. Last 4 matches have been over 1.5 goals. Last 9 Barca matches have been over 1.5 goals. Tradeable?1.22
8pm - Real Madrid v Atl Madrid - 1.31 home - 3 of the last 4 have been over 2.5 goals and last 2 have been 3-2 scorelines. Goals a safe bet today? BUT it is the Special One so a different philosophy makes this difficult to predict.That said, 6-4-6-3 goals scored in last 4 for Real Madrid. At home, 1-3-6-6- so the goalfest could continue. Have only conceded 6 all season and only 2 in 4 at home.
WDLL for Athl Madrid away from home, conceding 1-1-3-2. I suspect Real could lead at some stage so I would trade the 1.31 or opt for over 1.5 goals at 1.14 or over 2.5 goals to trade at 1.45
110 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Mediolanum, 5/1 Grand Award, 6/1 Great Esteem, 13/2 Oddjob, 10/1 Whereveryougoigo, 33/1 Bachley Gale, 50/1 Illysantachristina, Naughtyatiz.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks at the mercy of MEDIOLANUM. |
Fav spanked in to 4/11 fav - take the hint for Brennan/Twiston partnership? - 1.08 to place
120 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pullyourfingerout, 7/2 Marsh Warbler, 7/1 Manxman, 10/1 Green For Luck, Storming Redd, 12/1 Rahaala, 14/1 Juwireya, 16/1 Rare Malt, 20/1 Frequency, 25/1 Escape Artist, 40/1 Layla´s Boy, Polebrook, 66/1 Catawollow.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PULLYOURFINGEROUT has already shown a fair level of ability and is the one to beat. |
10/11 - - - - 11/2 in the live market but not run on soft ground yet. 1.46 to place
200 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Bobby Bullock, 6/1 Marked Man, 13/2 Sir Winston, 10/1 Lansdowne Princess, 16/1 Gunship, Heart Springs, 20/1 Miller´s Dawn, Raki Rose, 33/1 The Walnut Tree,
| DIOMED VERDICT: BOBBY BULLOCK looked revitalised when winning with ease on debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies on Thursday and his 7lb penalty will not stop him if he repeats that performance. |
Bobby another Twiston-Davies price gapper here.
335 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Lucky William, 3/1 Ninetieth Minute, 5/1 C´Est Ca, 6/1 Dr Whizz, Saludos, 8/1 Playboy Luke, 10/1 Prince Of Fire, 12/1 Uncle Tom Cobley, 20/1 City Of Doral, 25/1 Maca Rince, 33/1 Columbus Circle.
Big move for Saludos into 7/4 all red for this beginners chase.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Dinamo Kiev v Obolon - 1.15 home - 1.16 (illiquid market) over 1.5 goals - in running - includes both sides.
430pm - Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV - 1.17 home - looks a case of IN FORM v OUT OF FORM here - very illiquid market at 1.16 currently but it is better than the 1.12 with Ladbrokes.
6pm - Getafe v Barcelona - 1.39 away - what do we make of Getafe's 3 wins and a loss at home? 3-3-4 scored in the wins. My take is that they are playing lower league teams . 1.39 I would back to trade if Barca win at any stage. Or I would back Barca/lay Getafe if the latter score first.
Over 1.5 goals includes both and is tradeable - 1.22
8pm - Real Madrid v Atl Madrid - 1.31 home - you would have expected the Special One to be doing the old 1-0 trick, but this Real are scoring bucketloads while shutting the door at the other end. Hence 1.14 over 1.5 goals here. 1.31 allows a back of Real to trade if they win at any stage.
1.45 over 2.5 goals looks highly tradeable here too and we could stretch to over 3.5 goals at 2.06 with trading in mind.
120 MARKET RASEN - if the price gap is accurate, then Pullyourfinger out's place price of 1.46 is compelling but I notice this horse has yet to tackle soft ground and that is enough to perhaps put a dampener on that one.
200 HEREFORD - another big price in the place market for a price gapper - Bobby Bullock is 1.44 to place and I always greet these " too good to be true" prices with an element of suspicion. The price gap should be reflected in a shorter place only price.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
430pm - Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV - 1.17 home - this would be my one a day bet I think if only it was a liquid market ( it is not)
6pm - Getafe v Barcelona - 1.39 away - view with a trading eye - 1.22 over 1.5 goals and back Barca and hope they lead at some stage so we can trade out.
8pm - Real Madrid v Atl Madrid - 1.31 home - traditionally full of goals ( 3-2 last 2 matches) - over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is interesting, Over 1.5 goals at 1.14 looks very safe. Back Real Madrid at 1.31 and hope they score first at some stage to trade out.
200 HEREFORD - looks the best race of the day for me with Bobby Bullock leading from the front and winning by 17 lengths on yard debut last time out. BUT that was over 2 mile 4 furlongs. Tackling 3 miles 1 furlong today , Bobby is 10/11 with next best at 5/1 but threatening to drift to evens and beyond.
1.39 to place . If he repeats last win, then he surely must place ( and of course completes)
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