But any safer bets? Well man Utd seem to have it over Wolves at Old Trafford, scoring 3 in last 2 matches, and scoring 3 and 2 at home all season.
Twente look solid today against an Excelsior team who let 10 man Ajax score 2 to equalise 2-2.
*****ONE A DAY - 545pm Twente v excelsior - back Twente in the match odds at 1.19*****
Good luck to Zenyatta tonight in what looks a great value place only bet - currently 1.5
Aroucaria placed and Go ahead eagles won 3-0 , so both the match odds and over 2.5 goals came in despite it not being in running.
12pm - Augsburg v Bielefeld - 1.42 home - in running - 2010 and 2009 head to heads 2/2 for Augsburg 2-1 and 3-1 . Augsburg have won their last 2 after a 4 game losing streak in Division 2.
-all the losses were 1 goal margin losses with 2 1-0's
Augsburg are 7th at the moment against bottom today.
Bielefield have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 9 of their last 12, bad shape. LDLLLL last 6 league matches for them.
WLDW so far in the league at home for Augsburg - the last 3 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
DLLL for Bielefeld away this season. 3-1, 3-1, 3-1 0-0 the scorelines ( latest last) Quite a pattern, The 0-0 was against TSV who are 8th.
1.21 over 1.5 goals has some appeal as a trade if we can get a return to the 3-1 scorelines away for Bielefeld, but what of this sudden 0-0? A change of tactics?
1230pm - Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Akademik Sofia - 1.23 home
1pm - Sollerod-Vedbaek v Allerod - 1.33 home
2pm - Kryvbas v Shakhtar - 1.27 away
230pm - Mgladbach v B Munich - 1.6 away - in running - DWWD for Bayern in head to heads last 4 matches 2010 to 2008. The 2 wins were 2-1 and in all head to heads Mgladbach have scored at least 1.
In fact, both teams have scored in their last 6 head to heads.
Bayern have won 5 of their last 6 in all competitions.WDW in last 3 but 2 wins at home and 0-0 draw away.
Bayern have failed to score in 3 of their 4 away matches this season, 2 2-0 defeats, and a 0-0 draw.
Today's opponents are bottom at the moment. DLLDL at home ( latest last) -3 game losing streak, and have not won in 8 matches. 8/10 matches home and away for Mgladbach have been over 2.5 goals. 6/10 have been over 3.5 goals.
Bayern have scored 4 twice in their last 2 matches ( albeit one was Champions league v Cluj - but it shows they have the goal scoring thread)
A surprisingly tight asian handicap market here begins at +0.5 goals.
1.2 over 1.5 goals as both sides have scored in last 6 head to heads. Over 3.5 goals just incase the bad Mgladbach turn up?
3pm - Blackpool v Everton - 1.81 away - in running - fortuitous first home win against 9 man West Brom last time, and even that was a "hang on to 2-1" in the end.
Blackpool have generally struggled against the more established premiership sides at home. 100% over 2.5 goals at home for Blackpool. 8/10 have been over 2.5 goals this season. 5 game unbeaten run now for Everton. LLDWD (latest last) away from home this season.
If Blackpool score, I would lay them in running as I can see Everton getting back. I suspect the 1.81 looks tempting to back Everton and hope they score first.
9/10 games for Everton have been under 2.5 goals. WHo will out today? Defence or attack?
3pm - Carlisle v Tipton Town - 1.2 home FA Cup - league 1
3pm - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.23 home - 4,3,3,3 scored by Celtic last 4 head to heads - not in running and last match was a 4-4 draw, surely not again?
3pm - Man Utd v Wolves - 1.25 home - in running - United are unbeaten so far in the Premiership and playing a Wolves side full of belief after beating City last time out.WWWDW for United at home, and they have not scored less than 2 in each match this season at home.
8/10 matches have been over 2.5 goals this season.
3 draws on the trot have been ended by a 2 game winning streak although very lucky with 2-0 v Spurs as the Nani goal was clearly handball.
Man Utd have won the last 5 head to heads, and won the last 2 at home, scoring 3 in the process ( albeit league cup latest)
5 game United winning streak in all competitions.
Wolves' only win in last 12 came in last match against Man City. IS this a turning point?
DLLLL - so far away for WOlves, conceding a minimum of 2 goals.
2/3 looks to dominate both teams' home and away form so over 3.5 goals (2.72) is a speculative trade, over 2.5 goals (1.7) is safer, over 1.5 goals (1.22) should oblige for United themselves.
Asians start at +1.5 goals which tallies in with this 2 goal minimum score for United.
3pm - Notts Co v Gateshead - 1.43 home
3pm - QPR v Reading - 2 home - in running - WWWWDDD ( latest last) for QPR at home - 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and on a 4 game draw sequence , QPR are starting to get frustrated,with 3 0-0's and 2 1-1's in their last 6 matches.
The draws are coming against top 8 sides.
DWDLDLW for Reading away. The only reason I looked at QPR was because of their dominance which is stuttering now with the draws. A draw sequence must end sometime, but at evens at home, will it end today. Given the propensity to draw, perhaps lay the team who scores first?
5pm - Fenerbahce v Eskisehirspor - 1.38 home - in running - only 4th in the league so far. 6 game unbeaten run though and have only lost 1 in last 10. WWDWD at home ( latest last) so unbeaten at home.
Last 2 games have been draws against 2 of the top 4.
Have won last 3 head to heads at Fener's ground, but did lose one away to Eski. 4 game unbeaten run for Eski but did lose 2-1 away to league leaders and that should be something Fener can replicate.
No real trends apparent.
530pm - Olympiakos v Panionios - 1.24 home - in running - last 3 head to heads have seen 2 1-0's and a 3-2 -all Oly wins and all hard fought.
No draws for Oly this season.4/4 at home but last win was 1-0 and latest game in the cup, when 1.15, was 1-0 with an 89th minute winner. Are they stuttering? If so then a speculative 0-0 back to trade may be a good trade? Odds start at 17 to back 0-0.
Panionis lost 2-1 away to Panathanaikos and I could see this perhaps replicated today?
2-1, 2-1, 3-1 in their last 3 away matches. Are they perhaps a bogey side for Oly , becaus I would expect this scoreline today, although the last 2 head to heads have been 1-0's and the last Oly home match 1-0.
545pm - Twente v Excelsior - 1.19 home - in running - 8 wins and 4 draws so far put Twente top.5 game winning streak. DWDWW at home so far this season ( latest last). Excelsior have lost 5 and draw 1 of their last 6, drawing 2-2 to Ajax.
LDLLL away. Last head to head 2008 was 1-0. The 2-2 draw v Ajax saw Ajax go down to 10 men early, Excelsior went 2-0 up and conceded 2 to 10 men. One would suspect a strong Twente side to punish them today. 1.19 indicates 2, 3, 4 goal winning margin. 2-0 back bet to trade a good option? 7.6 currently
+1.5 start on the asians signals 2 goal minimum for Twente today
7pm - Standard v Eupen - 1.21 home - in running - both sides' last 6 matches have both been over 2.5 goals. 1.49 for overs to trade is a good start.
Standard have won their last 5 matches at home.
Eupen are bottom, and have lost 6 and drawn 1 at home. One scores and the other team concedes = goals bet?
745pm - Inter v Brescia - 1.28 home - in running - last met in 2005 so head to heads are redundant.
WWDD at home for Inter this season, and last 4 matches have all been under 2.5 goals, 0-0, 0-1 ( inter awaywin) , 1-1, 0-1 (inter away win). Inter finding scoring difficult.
5 game losing streak for Brescia includes 3 1-0's and 2 2-1's so Inter might find today frustrating.
Against top 5 teams all scorelines have been 1-0. Speculative 0-0 correct score back to trade at 16.5?
1230 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Jurisdiction, 4/1 Senor Alco, 7/1 Willie Hall, 8/1 Arctic Court, 10/1 Bertie Milan, 16/1 Night In Milan, 20/1 Goffa Crag, Northern Flame, 33/1 Belmore Baron, Fightstar, I Witness, 40/1 The Skanky Farmer, 50/1 Froggy Lane, What A Dream, 100/1 Flighty Mist, Tomzatackman.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SENOR ALCO can make the most of the weight received from the top one. |
Huge move for Arctic Court into 9/4, all red, favourite
225 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Kauto Star, 4/1 Sizing Europe, 13/2 China Rock, 20/1 Killyglen, Trafford Lad, 25/1 Coolcashin, Mossbank.
3 horses under 20/1 here and 2 places - does Sizing Europe offer the value place bet here? Can we trust Kauto Star?
840 CHURCHILL DOWNS - no betting forecast to share but as I write Goldikova is 6/4 with next best 6/1 - -illiquid place only market as you can imagine. Surely she can finish in the first 3 with such a price gap in such a race.
1045 CHURCHILL DOWNS - 1.51 to place for Zenyatta is massive for me. 19/19 with 14 group 1's. Back now and it should reduce as we near 1045pm - a hugely popular filly should ensure, at the very least, a tradeable opportunity.
I can see Zenyatta placing for sure here if not winning. Remember we are only looking for a place only and not a win.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Blackpool v Everton - 1.81 away - 1.28 over 1.5 goals , but how stubborn a resistance will Everton put up? Blackpool look layable here too at 5.2 which is the same as a 1.22 win.
3pm - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.23 home - 4,3,3,3 scored by Celtic in last 4 head to heads - can they replicate again? Not in running. Celtic have scored 3 in their last 2 matches.
Aberdeen have lost 4 of last 4 away.
3pm - Man Utd v Wolves - 1.25 home - looks very tradeable - United consistently scoring 2+ at home and I expect they will make the first breakthrough
545pm - Twente v Excelsior - 1.19 home - -unbeaten and top facing a team which was beating Ajax's 10 men 2-0 then let them draw 2-2. Expect Twente to punish them at home.
7pm - Standard v Eupen - 1.21 home - 1.49 over 2.5 goals looks highly tradeable for a team scoring v a team conceding.
225 DOWNROYAL - will be great to see Kauto out again but is he bettable? 1.3 to place for kauto tells us this is 2 places and a seasonal return.
1045 CHURCHILL DOWNS - 19 out of 19 for Zenyatta. She cannot keep winning but can she at least place tonight? 1.5 currently is a steal in these eyes as I deem it a shock if she is not placed.
Her perennial hold up and zoom final bend might be reliant on an element of luck.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.23 home - I wish this was in running as Celtic must surely lead at some stage? Consistently scoring 3 or more against Aberdeen.
3pm - Man Utd v Wolves - 1.25 home - what do we take of the Wolves win over Man City? An anomoly of a sign of something to come? Man Utd v lucky to score 2 last time out, but so consistent at home 2/3 goals scored in each match
545pm - Twente v Excelsior - 1.19 home - I would expect a comfortable win for Twente this evening against a poor Excelsior side. Yes, 1-0 in last head to head but that is not a recent head to head.
1045 CHURCHILL DOWNS - Zenyatta 1.5 to place -the odds may not last. 1/2 length, neck, 1/2 length last 3 races shows she just about gets there. Surely she will be at the business end?
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