I'm going to go with probabilities today. 4 horses and 2 places and a massive price gapper in such a small field should be a hint in itself.
*****ONE A DAY - 215 SOUTHWELL - National Trust to Place only - 1.15 currently - illiqudi market so hold on till the market fleshes out*****
2-0 to Real. I was expecting a fight from Athletico which never came, hence the reason I opted against the match odds bet/trade.
Debrecen was a steal at half time at 1.37, eventually winning 4-0 - that is why I was keen on them as a one a day yesterday.
5pm - Anorthosis v A.E. Paphos - 1.22 home - in running and asians begin at +1.5 goals. 2-0 ( away), 3-0, 2-2 draw (away) in head to heads favours Anorthosis. In the draw they did score first but took them a 90th minute goal to equalise 2-2. Do we take our cues from the 2-0 and 3-0 scorelines of most recent head to heads?
DDWWLWWW for Anorthosis this season. WWW at home this season 100% , albeit only 3 matches.
LDDDDWLL in the league so far for Paphos. Note the 4 draws and note the 2 recent draws for Anorthosis!
The draws have been all scoredraws for Paphos so this might indicate a trade of Anorthosis if they lead at any stage.
1.18 over 1.5 goals is interesting too given the prevalence of Paphos to score but not win.
5pm - Sparta Prague v Usti nad Labem - 1.18 home -last met in 2006 which indicates Usti are newcomers to the top flight Czech league.
WWLWDWW in the league for Sparta.
LDWLW at home is alarming form for a 1.18 shot. The win was an 88th minute winner to make it 1-0. Sparta look rocky in the league at home but have scored 3 twice in Europa league home matches!
LDDLDDL for Usti recently in the league.
DLDLDL away from home.
3rd v bottom, but can we trust an out of form ( in the league) Sparta who are Sparce with the goals at present. IN RUNNING
6pm - Besiktas v Kasimpasa - 1.24 home - 8th v Bottom LLLW last 4 for Besiktas is, again, hardly compelling evidence to back.LWWLW at home. More likely to win than lose.
2-2, 1-3 Kasimpasa win ( cup), 2-1 Besiktas home win in head to heads . In the 2-2 draw Besiktas were winning.
1-0 and 2-1 wins for Besiktas against bottom 3 sides -tight but they won.
LLLLLLLL for Kasimpasa in last 8 matches in the league is eyecatchingly bad!
3-3-3-2 conceded in 4 away matches this season. Looks a good overs bet perhaps with Besiktas a little ropey - Besiktas are conceding but Kasimpasa concede more!!
Last 8 Kasimpasa matches have been over 2.5 goals.
745pm - Chelmsford v Boreham Wood - 1.37 home - conference south - not for me thanks!!
155 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Douglas Julian, 6/1 Allanard, 7/1 Lukey Luke, 8/1 Border Flora, Paddys Honour, 12/1 What A Steel, 14/1 Overyou, 20/1 Lochore, Play The Rock, 50/1 Transact.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A weak race in which DOUGLAS JULIAN has obvious prospects of following up his Hexham win. Allanard may give him most to do. |
Price gapper here but heavy ground means , if disciplined, this venue should be left alone
215 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 National Trust, 5/1 Caheerloch, Kilshannig, 7/1 Little Dibber.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This revolves around NATIONAL TRUST, who may be flattered by his official rating of 130 but still looks a standout on the figures. |
Standout price gap in such a low numbered race, dare we trust National Trust to fill one of the 2 places in this claiming hurdle?
235 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bilko Pak, 15/8 Takeaway, 15/2 My Lord, 17/2 Sir Lunchalott, 16/1 Mediplomat, 20/1 Bendigedig, Chilworth Lass, 28/1 Algurayn, 33/1 Elusive Vine, 40/1 Nalany, Red Jacaranda.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This may well be between TAKEAWAY and Bilko Pak. |
Significant non runner in Takeaway surely makes life a lot easier for Bilko Pak not just to place , but to win?
Claimer not the ideal race type but the price gap and significant non runner is compelling.
Just to make it easier, this is a class 6 2 year old claimer with Bilko Pak tackling 7 furlongs for the first time.
310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gentleman Is Back, 9/2 Charles Fosterkane, 11/2 Avid Kale, 11/1 Baileys Moneypenny, Looksmart, Point Du Jour, 25/1 Kyncraighe.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The C&D maiden won by GENTLEMAN IS BACK last time is working out nicely and, with more probably to come, he looks the clear pick in this uncompetitive nursery. |
Gentleman is Back is now all red, 8/13 in this nursery - only 2 places and 2 year olds - yikes!!
Only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1 signals Gentleman might not have too many rivals here.m A course and distance maiden winner, can we rely on this 2 year old?
415 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Treacle Tart, 15/8 Miss Kingwood, 11/4 Chincoteague, 12/1 Harrys, 20/1 Lady Brickhouse, 33/1 Hecton Lad, 40/1 Baggsy, Marafong.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TREACLE TART may be the answer. |
A 2 year old maiden but an ideal place only race. 8 runners means 3 places , and 4 are under 25/1 meaning I would concentrate on the top 4 for the placings. Treacle Tart is 32 and has run on all weather, obvious selection?
SHORTLIST
What a difficult day the betting gods have dealt us after the myriad opportunities of the weekend. 2 years old predominant and untrustworthy as they are still learners.
And in the football we have very obvious teams who should win easily but, on closer inspection, are in poor runs of form, so do we go by market confidence or do we go by what we see form wise?
155 CARLISLE -Douglas Julian is 1.25 to place and a price gapper but this is heavy ground today at Carlisle and I think we must maintain discipline and steer clear of heavy ground meetings unless they bring forth probability races with non runners.
215 SOUTHWELL - intriguing this as National Trust ( owned by JP McManus) is strong 2/5 favourite and 2nd horse Kilshannig ( owned by reknowned gambler JP McManus) is 7/1, has AP McCoy booked.
Call me cynical, but if I was a professional gambler and had 2 of 4 runners in this race, I would be betting the 7/1 horse with the Champion jockey booked ! 1.16 National Trust to place and 2.64 ( illiquid market) Kilshannig.
I have seen these scenarios before which is why it piqued my interest.Kilshannig wins by a neck!!!
235 WOLVES - I love seeing a top heavy market and then one of the principles become a non runner. This is what has occured here. Bilko Pak is the beneficiary here. 1.18 to place, 5th last time out ( blame a bad draw?) and tackling 7 furlongs for the first time.
A 2 year old claiming race. Trust the market who has this one 4/6 with next best 11/2 in a race where only 4 are under 14/1 and 5 under 20/1?
415 WOLVES - a maiden this one but an ideal place only race as it offers the minimum number of runners for the 3 places.
Only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1 should allow focus on the front 3 for the 3 places.
As I write I would have this between Treacle Tart and Miss Kingswood. It is the latter who is being backed as I write.
1.24 Miss Kingswood and 1.31 Treacle Tart to place. But why the 12th of 16 last time out for Miss Kingswood?
Can we trust horses in a class 6 maiden? ( next stop Blackpool Pleasure Beach!!)
5pm - Anorthosis v A.E. Paphos - 1.22 home - drawitis has caught these 2 - Anorthosis have drawn last 2, Paphos have drawn 4 of last 5 matches.
Anorthosis are clear in head to heads and WWW at home so this looks the safest match today. Given the drawitis I would consider trading if Anorthosis take the lead at any stage.
6pm - Besiktas v Kasimpasa - 1.24 home - Besiktas have won 3 of their 5 at home. Kasimpasa have lost their last 8 league matches. A case of faith in Besiktas to get the breakthrough here? Their recent overall form is LLLW but they have beaten the 2 of the bottom 3 they have played ( Kasimpasa are bottom)
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
What a tough day today with nothing approaching the confidence I would have in a Debrecen, Zenyatta, etc.
215 SOUTHWELL - you have been warned of a potential set up here to get Kilshannig in here first ( biggest priced of the McManus runners!) This is, though, a 50/50 shot here , 4 horses and 2 places and National Trust, with a clear round, must have a decent place only chance? Simply play the probability that a price gapper, if completing, is more likely to place in a 50/50 race than not.
235 WOLVES -2 year old warning - may be unpredictable!! But with near joint favourite a non runner, surely Bilko Pak can take advantage? 1.18 to place and has an extra furlong to contend with.
415 WOLVES - I hate having to pick a choice so early on. This is a maiden where the market will tell us who to choose from the 3 most likely - I would choose between Treacle Tart or Miss Kingwood. There is the hint of support for Miss Kingwood as I write which may come to fruition throughout the day.
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