back-lay-trade-horses-football: 26/11

*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Anderlecht v Charleroi - Back Anderlecht in the match odds at 1.19*****

Job done yesterday and I managed to shortlist Smad Place , 8/1 victor over Dolatulo.

200pm - Dinamo Kiev v Sevastopol - 1.15 home -2 2010 head to heads, one cup and one league match. Both away wins for Dinamo Kiev should augur well for a home match.
3 losses, 2 draws and 7 wins for Kiev.
Last 2 matches have been draws so this sequence is at least priced to end today. Slight wobble at home last 2 matches loss and a draw.
5 game losing streak for Sevastapol started with a cup win for Kiev.
2nd v 2nd from bottom. No in running.LLLLDLL away from home in the league for Sevastapol.
2pm - Videoton v Siofok - 1.28 home - 1 loss and 1 draw in last 12 only for Videoton. Good form.5 wins and a loss in last 6 at home.
LLWWLDW away for Siofok in the league - sign of a revival last 2?
Videoton have changed their name recently.
230pm - B Munich v Frankfurt - 1.39 home - in running - surprisingly this is 8th v 7th in the Bundesliga - WDWDWD for Bayern in last 6 - all wins at home and all draws away.
Bayern have scored 3,4,3 in their last 3 home matches, this after some poor form WDDL in previous 4 home matches. Mario Gomez is the man of the moment for Bayern.
Frankfurt won last head to heads in March 2010 but Bayern scored first. Looks like a revival at home for Bayern. Enough to back them at 1.39?
LLWWWDWWDL for Frankfurt - solid middle section. Lost last match 4-0 at home to Hoffenheim.
5 home wins on the trot in all competitions a good sign for Bayern backers.
LWLWWWD for Frankfurt away from home in the league is solid away form. LAst draw was 0-0 v Werder Bremen who conceded 6 and 4 recently to other Bundesliga sides - no goals scored for Frankfurt in their last 2 matches a sign of something?
71% of Bayern's home matches and 86% of Frankfurt's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Over 1.5 goals bet therefore?1.19 over 1.5 goals.
With Bayern's new found home goalscoring and Frankfurt's alarming concession rate last game, this could be the bet.

3pm - Brighton v FC United Manchester - 1.27 home - FA CUP - League 1 versus 2nd from bottom in the Unibond Premier (Northern) League - a simple matter of hoping that the gulfs in the leagues takes care of things.
WDDWWWWDLDDD for Brighton in last 12 ( latest last) - slight concern re draws last 3. Not in running so an opinion has to be made without trading in mind.
3pm - Celtic v Inverness CT - 1.27 home - in running - 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, then suddenly 6-0 in head to heads. Tight then capitulation. WWWWLWD at home for the Bhoys. Last 3 matches have seen only 1 win. Inverness are unbeaten away from home -2 1-1 draws with Hibs and Rangers mean we must treat them with respect, particularly given the tight matches in head to heads before the 6-0 Celtic win last time out .
The away record is too good for me for put this match up, especially seeing the loss and draw in 2 of Celtic's last 3 matches.
3pm - Colchester v Swindon Supermarine - 1.28 home - League 1 v Southern Premier
3pm - Huddersfield v Macclesfield - 1.45 home - league 1 v league 2 - I would prefer to see a bigger gap in leagues ( see earlier)
3pm - Man Utd v Blackburn - 1.29 home - in running - Man Utd have won the last 3 head to heads at home, won 1 and drawn 2 away at Blackburn.
level on points with Chelsea who have superior goal difference, United are ideally positioned to take advantage of any Chelsea slip ups.
6 wins and a draw at home for United and they have not failed to score less than 2 at home this season.
The draw saw Man Utd 2-0 up v West Brom!
United are unbeaten in their last 12 in all competitions with only 4 draws
Only 2 draws in last 12 at home - and they were both avoidable ( weakened side v Rangers and 2-0 up v west Brom)
DDLWLDLLWWLW for Blackburn this season in last 12 in all competitions - note the 3 wins and a loss in last 4 - a sign of something?
The wins were v Newcastle, Wigan and Villa.
4 losses, 2 wins and a draw away from home for Blackburn. Interestingly, when hosting Chelsea and Arsenal, they lost 2-1. This 2 goal concession rate ties in with United's record of scoring 2 or more per home match this season.
A sign of things to come?
71% - the percentage of United's home and Blackburn's away matches which have ended over 2.5 goals - 7 out of every 10 matches.
3pm - Southampton v Cheltenham - 1.36 home - league 1 v league 2 in the FA Cup. Soton are unbeaten in their last 8 at home - 6 wins with a draw at either end.
410pm - APOEL v Olympiakos Nicosia - 1.23 home - in running - one loss , a draw and 10 wins for APOEL - no wonder they are fancied at home. 7 game winning streak.
10 wins on the trot in all competitions at home for APOEL. 5 of last 8 matches have had 1-0 winning scorelines for APOEL so the Greekish scoreline is rubbing off on the Cypriots it would seem.
LDDLDDWDWWDD for Nicosia - they like their draws! 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 last 3 Nicosia scorelines. Is this one of those matches with a scarcity of goals? APOEL have shown at home they can score 3 and 2 when they want to.
530pm - Dortmund v Mgladbach - 1.32 home - in running - top v bottom. Dortmund are not a team I would have associated with the leadership of the Bundesliga. Only loss in last 12 was against Sevilla in the Europa league.LWWWDW at home this season.
4 game winning streak.
Head to heads - Dortmund won the last won, but Mgladbach won the one before. ( that was a club friendly)
Only 2 wins all season for Mgaldbach - 1 win 3 losses away from home.
100% of Mgladbach's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. BUT only 17% of Dortmund's home matches have been over 2.5 goals ( they have won the odd match 2-0 though!!)

7pm - Anderlecht v Charleroi - 1.19 home - in running - must win for home side as they are 2 points shy of top spot. 5 wins and 2 draws at home this season .WWWWWD for head to heads - last head to head was a 0-0 draw in August 2010 away from home
Playing the bottom side today.
They have only1 win, a home win v 2nd from bottom at home.
11 matches without a win, when playing top 6, they have lost the 3 away matches .

1225 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Binocular, 11/4 Peddlers Cross, 9/2 Starluck, 14/1 Nearby, 66/1 Bygones Of Brid.

DIOMED VERDICT: BINOCULAR can account for rising star Peddlers Cross if anywhere near his Champion Hurdle-winning best.

This is pretty much a 4 horse race for 2 places and 2 standout horses in Binocular and Peddlers Cross.

230 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Big Buck´s, 7/1 Duc De Regniere, 9/1 Kayf Aramis, 14/1 Duke Of Lucca, 33/1 Arcalis, 500/1 Spider Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Undefeated in eight races since reverting to hurdles almost two years ago, BIG BUCK'S can hardly be opposed. Duc De Regniere can complete the forecast.

Huge price gapper and an absence to overcome ( for most of the bigboys today) and Big Buck's is stand out - 2 places should mean that the place price is higher than it would be in an 8 runner /3 places affair

305 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port, 8/1 Diamond Harry, Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks, Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, Neptune Collonges, 20/1 Carruthers, Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature, 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop, Niche Market, 50/1 Dream Alliance, Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran,

DIOMED VERDICT: Denman may have to settle for minor honours this time. The chief threat at these weights should be Neptune Collonges but, with a question over whether he will be quite fit enough, the vote goes to DIAMOND HARRY who heads a fascinating bunch of second-season chasers, ahead of Pandorama.

20 runners and a handicap means 4 places - faith in "the tank"?

420 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Guided Missile, 4/1 Whistle On By, 11/2 Logans Legend, Russian Affair, 8/1 Captain Noble, Robin Hoods Bay, 12/1 Quality Art, Steenbok, 25/1 Konstantin, Rambo Will, 28/1 Dysios.

DIOMED VERDICT: The 75-rated Whistle On By sets no more than a fair standard and there are a few runners with the potential to improve past him, notably GUIDED MISSILE who is from a family that her connections have had plenty of success with and should build on a promising debut at Newmarket.

11/10 - - - 5/1 price gapper based on a single run and is making an all weather debut today. Trust the market?

450 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Majestic Bright, 5/2 Countenance Divine, Private Joke, 13/2 Handsome King, 14/1 Lady Rossetti, 50/1 Dashwood, 66/1 Quahadi, Surprise Us,

DIOMED VERDICT: MAJESTIC BRIGHT has the best form on offer, at least on AW, and looks open to more progress. Market confidence behind well-bred newcomer Private Joke and/or long-absent Countenance Divine would be highly significant.

An interesting market this one with 3 at 40/1 or bigger. Another maiden alas and a debutant 2nd fav, but faith in MAjestic Bright to place in the first 3 in effectively a 4 horse race ( if we discount the 20/1 horse)

720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Majuro, 6/4 Orchard Supreme, 8/1 Just Jimmy, 10/1 Ella Grace, 25/1 Saving Grace, 33/1 Athboy Auction, 50/1 Chifah, Gilderoy, 100/1 Kirkby´s Gem, Marsh´s Gift, Old Firm, Whispering Ridge.

DIOMED VERDICT: MAJURO will appreciate this drop into selling company and can prove too strong for Orchard Supreme in receipt of 5lb.