*****ONE A DAY 745pm - Rangers v Hibs - back Rangers in the match odds market at 1.22*****
At the prices , this is the best today. Hibs are in woeful form. Rangers dare not drop points at home in a consecutive home match. A 1 point difference and a draw today could spell a change at the top of the SPL.
I opted for Linfield in the end and they won 6-2. The Stoke v Birmingham game was fascinating. I pointed out the lack of goals ( Stoke score 1 before halftime in 11 and Brum concede 2 before halftime in 11) but the 2nd half is where the goals come for both.
So under 3.5 goals - a winner or not?
Well, I put a small amount on ( as my main bet was Linfield) to show you the trade
| Soccer > Stoke v Birmingham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals | Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(€) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(€) | |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 1.23 | 29.00 | Back | 09-Nov-10 19:47 | -29.00 | |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 1.07 | 33.34 | Lay | 09-Nov-10 20:26 | 33.34 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | -29.00 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 33.34 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 4.34 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.61%: | 0.20 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 4.14 | |||||
Note the time. I was out in the 41st minute . The £4.14 may look small but put it in context of the £29 stake and note it is on over and under 3.5 goals so I profit regardless.
Of course the final score of 3-2 meant this was a losing bet, and that was my concern yesterday with Brum away from home.
So, it worked out exactly as predicted, a winning halftime trade but a losing bet. And that, I suppose is the key difference between betting and trading.
Cup day today throughout Europe it would seem offers some amazing opportunities, especially, it would seem, for enhanced goals bets.
2pm - Stal Alchevsk v Dinamo Kiev - 1.18 away -in running - Ukraine Cup - +2 goal asian handicap start - 1.18 over 1.5 goals includes both sides. - 1.18 signals goals here and a comfortable 2,3,4 goal win , if playing to form. Last met 2008. Now Division 2 side v top flight.
6 game winning streak in all competitions ended last match with 2-0 defeat for Kiev.
In 8 of 9 matches prior to 2-0 defeat, Kiev scored 2 or more in each match.
6 wins, 2 losses in last 8 away in all competitions .
Stal are 3rd in Division 2. WDWWLDLL in last 8. Have scored once on 3 occasions in last 4 ( on 4th scored 3)
3pm - Sigma Olomouc v Pisek - 1.18 home - in running - Czech Cup - 3-3 on 26th October, but note Sigma were 3-1 up at one stage. This is in keeping with today's 1.18 - a case of complacency last time out? Expect Sigma to make sure today with home advantage? The fact Pisek got level indicates that I would , perhaps, trade here if Sigma lead at any stage.
Division 1 v Division 3
330pm - FK Jablonec v HFK Olomouc - 1.23 home - Jablonec 4-2 down from first leg and 1.23 home now? Surely a fightback is expected? Goals? Not in running though and we only have over 2.5 goals to work with.
4pm - Mlada Boleslav v Banik Sokolov - 1.37 home - more Czech Cup - again Banik won 3-0 last time yet Mlada are home favs
4pm - Plzen v Opava - 1.2 home - Division 1 v Division 3m - faith in the gulf in leagues and home advantage?
Plzen have won 11 of last 12 in top flight, only losing 4-3 in single loss.
Opava have won all of their last 12 matches - both in solid form but one is doing it in the top flight!!
5pm - Bursaspor v Kirikhanspor - 1.15 home - in running - division 1 v division 4 - simple faith in the gulf in the leagues. Home advantage too. Again, with this odds range, asians begin at an optimistic +2.5 goals. Not much analysis I can really do as Division 1 losing form may still be better than Division 4 winning form!! FAith, again, in the market and apparent gulf in class. Always look for enhanced bets - goals and halftime/fulltime market can enhance the match odds.
5pm - Crvena Zvezda v FK Teleoptik - 1.2 home - division 1 v division 2 - rely on Serbian football?
5pm - Shakhtar v Metalurg Z - 1.14 home - in running - Ukrainian Cup, both top flight league sides yet 1.14 Shaktar? Are Metalurg sending a weakened side? +1.5 asians minimum is also suspicious for a game where the market leader is 1.14.
1-1, 2-0, 2-0 in league head to heads last 3 - again a 1-1 draw in 2010 and Shaktar are 1.14?
545pm - PSV v Spakenburg - 1.06 home - away side should change name to Spankenburg, because I suspect that is what will happen here. Screams out for a goals bet if PSV play a first team and "do a Feyenoord" where they scored 10 - in running Top flight v Holland Topklasse - asians at +2.5 to +3 - a pity the over 3.5 and over 4.5 goals markets are illiquid. 1.13 halftime/fulltime is, I think, wrongly priced signalling another illiquid market. Yes, it is 1.25 at Bet365.
1.25 over 2.5 goals has a good chance of coming in ( more liquidity at the bookies like Bet365 offering this market)
630pm - Rapid Vienna v Hartberg - 1.21 home - division 1 v division 2 and I successfully argued yesterday that the leagues are so small that there is not that gulf of class there would be between the leagues in other countries , and , as they say in Dragon's Den, for that reason, I'm out.
7pm - AZ Alkmaar v FC Eindhoven - 1.23 home - division 1 v division 2 - there are far better and more clear cut bets today
7pm - Real Madrid v Murcia - 1.07 home - in running - 0-0 in the away fixture should be repaired with home advantage. 262632 in last 6 the goals scored by Real. Likely we will see a weakened team tonight - the 1.07 indicates 2,3,4 goal win 1.37 over 2.5 goals is tradeable. Team news I think will determine confidence or otherwise here.
7pm - Vitesse v Rijnsburgse Boys - 1.22 home - topflight v Topklasse - again all we can do is trust the odds and hope there is a significant gulf in class.
745pm - Aston Villa v Blackpool - 1.66 home - in running - WWDDD at home this season for Villa - they have only scored 1 in their last 3 home matches . Blackpool are actually above Villa in the table!!
WLWLWL for Blackpool away - not a sniff of a draw - and to be honest they have played Arsenal and Chelsea away ( loss) and beat Liverpool 2-1 away.
If this alternate route continues, today should see a win!.
Will Villa continue to find it difficult to score at home? A difficult game to weigh up for me given the poor goalscoring form of Villa and Brum's ability to shut out Blackpool in their last away match.
745pm - Chelsea v Fulham - 1.25 home - 2 losses on the trot got Chelsea - is that concievable? - in running - 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 in 2009 head to heads includes 2 home wins there and an away win for Chelsea.
Chelsea's only loss at home in recent times came in the League Cup and that was 3-4!!
4,2,2,2,3,4,2,6,1,8,7 goals scored in last 11 home matches for Chelsea. Unable to score against Liverpool away - did Fulham garner anything from this?
DWLLDDD for Fulham in last 7 matches - a very poor run of form. Draws are dominating.
DDDLDL away from home - again look what dominates! 3 score draws and a 0-0 shut out away for Fulham.
They can score away, but will Chelsea score 2 again?
745pm - Rangers v Hibernian - 1.22 home - in running - Scottish Premiership and 1.6 away for Celtic could signal a tough enough evening for them. Rangers have home advantage and the usual odds.3-0, 1-0, 3-0, 4-1 last 4 head to heads compelling enough for Rangers.
LLLWLLDDLL for Hibs in the league - dire straits for them. Includes a 2-1 away defeat at Celtic and this should be a guide as to tonight's final score.
WDWWWW for Rangers in the league in last 6 - the draw was a 1-1 home draw and they did score first.
Rangers beat Hibs 3-0 in August away at Hibs.
They must win tonight to keep that slender 1 point advantage over Celtic.
WLLLLL away for Hibs.
It does look compelling for Rangers tonight. They will seek to banish the slip up ( draw) at home last time out.
8pm - Atl Madrid v Universidad L.P. - 1.3 home - 5-0 on 27th October 2010 head to head - can Atl Madrid replicate this with home advantage - quite clearly miles ahead of this lot, a lot will depend on team news as regards seeing this 1.3 as a steal!!
8pm - Sevilla v Real Union - 1.3 home - 4-0 away win but was 1-0 until Real got a man sent off, but was an easy win inevitable? We shall never know. Again, like Atl Madrid, do Sevilla have to win tonight? I am not sure how the Spanish Cup works - obviously 2 legs but are they tallied up?
8pm - Villarreal v Ejido - 1.3 home - in running 1-1 in October head to head - Villareal scored first. Will they do so again with home advantage and allow a trade?
8 wins on the trot in all competitions at home and I suspect Villareal would like to continue this, as much for psychological reasons as anything else. 2 1-1 draws on the trot v this opposition is a concern and points to a blase attitude in the Cup for Villareal?
8pm - Wolves v Arsenal - 1.67 away - in running - I was so pleased with my research for Arsenal's last match - an apparent difficulty in scoring ( 88th minute winner v West Ham!!) brought to fruition at home at the weekend. 1-0, 4-1 ( home win, away win) for Arsenal in 2 head to heads recently do not look good for Wolves.
DWDLW away from home for Arsenal this season. Only lost the 1!! - -and that was against Chelsea.
WDLDW - a degree of symmetry at home this season for Wolves. Only lost 1 at home!!
This makes tonight's match a bit of a stalemate for me as far as finding any patterns.
9pm - Barcelona v Ceuta - 1.09 home - in running - 2-0 away result in head to heads at end of October. More of the same this evening I suspect and wholesale changes for Barca as well may not produce the 3,4+ goal victory that the 1.09 suggests.
The market thinks +2.5 goals to +3 goals asian handicap which indicates they expect a 3,4 goal victory this evening.
Enhance odds with halftime/fulltime?1.35. Barca will win, this is simply a bet that they can score to no reply in the first half ( they scored 2 in first half in first leg)
Taking our cues from the asian handicap, over 3.5 goals ( again with trading in mind!!) is 1.93
1.12 over 1.5 goals is enticing.
1.37 over 2.5 goals is very tradeable.
1230 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Monsieur Jamie, 5/2 Indian Shuffle, 13/2 Silent Blessing, 12/1 Lady On Top, 16/1 Arrivaderci, 20/1 Verus Decorus, 25/1 Emperorsnewclothes, Georgian Silver, 66/1 Diamond Sunrise, Mujapiste, 100/1 Hannah Cann,
| DIOMED VERDICT: MONSIEUR JAMIE shouldn't be inconvenienced by the drop to 5f and ought to take some pegging back. |
Remember Southwell is a unique surface.
Only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 25/1 here signals that we should focus on front 3 , Silent blessing has Southwell specific experience.
120 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Gibb River, 4/1 Soleil D´Avril, 6/1 Featherbed Lane, 8/1 Eastern Supreme, Robin De Creuse, 14/1 Cluain Alainn, Mick´s Dancer, 20/1 Mayolynn, 25/1 Agapanthus, Strongbows Legend, 33/1 Betty Browneyes, Me Fein, 50/1 Mandalay Prince, Uncle Ant, 100/1 Driving Seat, Jigsaw Financial.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Nicky Henderson has a great strike rate here over hurdles and that tips the scales in favour of GIBB RIVER. |
Newcomer to hurdles but Barry Geraghty onboard and a good price gapper 6/5 - - - - 6/1
215 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rivage D´Or, 2/1 Staying Article, 6/1 Forty Foot Tom, 7/1 Kid Curry, Whatever Jacksays, 14/1 Character Actor, 16/1 Bring Me Back, One Direction, Stoned Immaculate, 25/1 Eddie Zero, 33/1 Fascinating Paddy, Joyfull Angel, Painted Canyon, Sister Steve, 50/1 Barbaric Times, Carrigeen Eile, Clearwater West, Mr Bits And Pieces, Ounaja, Pias Princess, 66/1 Bearsgrove, Bobs Way, Port And Brandy, Postal Code, Silver Doll.
Front 2 should dominate and are very familiar to me , especially Staying article as I remember the 14 length demolition job in a bumper on 14th October.
240 BANGOR ON DEE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Bonfire Knight, 3/1 Dhaafer, 9/2 Marsh Warbler, 6/1 Beneath, 7/1 Royal And Ancient, 10/1 Celtic Intrigue, 12/1 Call To Arms, 33/1 Lamps.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BONFIRE KNIGHT has some of the best Flat form (registered over further than some of these) and shaped well enough on his hurdling debut. |
Here we have 8 runners again, 3 places and only 4 under 16/1 which leaves focus on the front 4, Bonfire knight a good 5th in listed hurdles race last time out a logical starting point to place?
250 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Medermit, 100/30 Harry Tricker, 11/1 Sergeant Pink, 20/1 Hi Tide.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MEDERMIT was in a different league to these over hurdles and, likely to have learnt plenty from last month's winning debut over fences, ought to be very hard to beat, a clear round permitting. |
The eternal conundrum of chase newbies - will they do a Celestial Halo ( fall at the last) or a Royal Charm ( very impressive superb jumping on chase debut yesterday)
Importantly Medermit has had a chase run already in October, a small matter of an 88 length win. So he is proven ( albeit only one run) over the larger obstacles.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Stal Alchevsk v Dinamo Kiev - 1.18 away - I like to see the gulf in leagues and here is one - Dinamo Kiev have been in great recent form and should win with a strong side. As with all shorties today, enhanced bets arise via goals market and halftime/fulltime markets.
3pm - Sigma Olomouc v Pisek - 1.18 home - the fact Sigma were 3-1 up last time out ( albeit it ended 3-3) signals a degree of dominance which should be capitalised on with home advantage.
In running so we can always trade out of there is a good lead for Sigma in order to insure against the possible comeback.
4pm - Plzen v Opava - 1.2 home - Division 1 v Division 3m - 2 teams in superb form but one has the superb form in the top flight, the other in Division 3. Is this enough to side with the home side?
5pm - Bursaspor v Kirikhanspor - 1.15 home - in running - one of the better gulfs in the leagues today - faith in this gulf and the odds despite a less than emphatic recent run of form for the home side ( albeit in the top flight)
545pm - PSV v Spakenburg - 1.06 home - this could be goal carnage. Bet365 gives us better halftime/fulltime odds of 1.25 than an illiquid betfair market. I could speculate at over 4.5 goals today if PSV play their first team.
7pm - Real Madrid v Murcia - 1.07 home - in running - how much do we read into the 0-0 last time out? Remember that Mourinho home record ( albeit league only?) -1.36 over 2.5 goals a possible trade? As expressed earlier, team news will indicate confidence here.
745pm - Chelsea v Fulham - 1.25 home - Fulham have a bad case of Drawitis, not good against a side who are regularly scoring 2 or more at home and have not lost in last 11 at home ( discounting League Cup )
745pm - Rangers v Hibernian - 1.22 home - in running - Hibs have only won 1 in last 10. have already been beaten at home 3-0 by Rangers and away 2-1 by Celtic. This ought to be a home win and there is ample motivation with a 1 point lead over Celtic very precious for Rangers.
They drew last time 1-1 at home, but did score first so those less risk averse can consider getting out if Rangers lead at any stage.
8pm - Atl Madrid v Universidad L.P. - 1.3 home - 5-0 away from home - a case of job done or will Alt Madrid want the home win too? Looks a steal if so at 1.3.
8pm - Sevilla v Real Union - 1.3 home - exactly the same argument for Sevilla
9pm - Barcelona v Ceuta - 1.09 home -easy 2-0 away win - more of the same at home? Enhanced bets - goals perhaps?
Multiple? Normally I like to include far more lays but there are a number of in running matches here so hedging is a choice to lock in a break even bet .
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120 HUNTINGDON - Gibb river is, admittedly, a risk as he has no hurdles form but this is a big price gapper from a big stable with a big jockey ( Barry Geraghty) and 1.35 could look a big price afterwards.
215 NAAS - Rivage D'or and Staying article stand out and are split in the place only market with Rivage D'or at a strong 1.34 and Staying article a less favourable 1.71 to place.
250 HUNTINGDON - Medermit loks standout here and importantly, has that chase run under his belt. 4 runners and 2 places - a clear round will suffice - 1.11 to place and 1.29 to win. Risk the win? One horse is 14/1 and one is 33/1
This opens up the potential of a value placer in Harry Tricker at 1.44 to place as the only other horse under 14/1 in a 4 runner race.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Sigma Olomouc v Pisek - 1.18 home 3-1 and you ****ed it up was the shout from Pisek fans last time, but I see that 3-1 as dominance and 3-3 final score as complacency - priced to put it right and in running.
5pm - Bursaspor v Kirikhanspor - 1.15 home - included only because of the huge gulf in class. Top flight to Division 4.
545pm - PSV v Spakenburg - 1.06 home - depending on the team news, this could be a huge scoreline. Halftime/fulltime at 1.25 with Bet365 is good, but Betfair's markets are highly illiquid. A goals bet in the higher reaches could be speculated perhaps.
7pm - Real Madrid v Murcia - 1.07 home - Mourinho will want the home winning run to continue. Watch for team news to determine if a goals bet is on. Has the motivation of a 0-0 and therefore not won yet Cup round!!
745pm - Rangers v Hibernian - 1.22 home -Rangers cannot afford to drop 2 more points at home and Hibs really are in poor form.
8pm - Atl Madrid v Universidad L.P. - 1.3 home - job done you could argue, making 1.3 dangerous, but the 5-0 away win was compelling enough to suggest perhaps Atl MAdrid can at least win, albeit marginally, at home.
9pm - Barcelona v Ceuta - 1.09 home - again team news will determine the bet.
215 NAAS - how good is this staying article? The market prefers Rivage D'or at 1.31 to place of the 2 principles.
250 HUNTINGDON - Medermit - 1.11 to place or go for the 1.29 win - still a novice chaser mind you but only 4 runners and only 2 under 14/1 - is Harry Tricker the value play here?
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