The day before Cheltenham today and 3 jumps meetings. I guess we won't be seeing any of the big boys out
200 PLUMPTON
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Zemsky is an interesting contender on his debut for Nicky Henderson, who has an impressive strike-rate at this track, and any market confidence would be significant but NEIL HARVEY gets the verdict as his second to decent prospect Aachen at Towcester warrants plenty of respect and he should be suited by this step up in trip.[SB] |
REgular readers will recognise Neil Harvey, a place only selection last time out.
Now with 3rd fav Creagh Bay a non runner, surely this makes life easier for the front 2 1.08 / 1.17 the front 2 to place
Soft ground a niggle as is the extra 5 furlongs that Neil will be encountering today
210 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Silk Hall, 11/10 Pepite De Soleil, 14/1 Criterion, 25/1 Dinarius, 33/1 Bombardier Wells, Idle Words, Samurai Warrior, 50/1 It´s My Day, 66/1 Galley Slave, Running Buck, 100/1 King´s Alchemist.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should develop into a match. Silk Hall was a stayer on the Flat and will get further than this over hurdles judged on how well he saw his race out at Newbury so, around here and back on easier ground (didn't appear to suit at Taunton), he may have to play second fiddle to PEPITE DE SOLEIL.[AWJ] |
So much for the big boys resting - Choc Thornton is on Alan Kings fav here 3rd fav now 10/1 (each way thieves?) -only 3 under 25/1 1.1 and 1.21 to place
220 TAUNTON
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Form pick Red And White hasn't been finishing her races with any great conviction so, returned to soft ground here too, there is a doubt as to whether we will see the best of her. As such, a chance is taken on ROCK EXHIBITION, winner of a heavy-ground Flat maiden in Ireland and who should find this company much easier than when pitched into a useful contest at Newbury for her hurdles debut recently.[MCu] |
Sparkling now 3/1 , Bosamcliff 7/1
300 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 El Dancer, 7/2 Intac, 13/2 Jeczmien, 40/1 Estuary House.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Intac achieving nothing out of the ordinary here on his hurdling debut and Jeczmien's European Flat form being difficult to assess, this looks a good opportunity for EL DANCER, who got to within 1l of Cheltenham-bound Ronaldo Des Mottes at Sandown last time.[SB] |
Obvious contender 1.06 to place
310 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bold Policy, 9/4 Berings Express, 3/1 Celticello, 7/1 Bring It On Home, 14/1 Starstruck Peter, 66/1 Own Up, 100/1 Doubleexcel, Feeling Peckish, Haroum, Pasqualina Mia, Send For Tim.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Just a handful to consider and it will be disappointing should BOLD POLICY not go very close for a yard with a 50% strike-rate at this level during recent seasons.[AWJ] |
AP McCoy on the fav here 1.25 and 1.22 to place the front 2
320 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Thundering Star, 9/2 Soulard, 15/2 Mad Moose, 12/1 Another Display, 14/1 Son Histoire, 16/1 Soft Spoken Guy, Top Ticket, 20/1 Marwan, Sizeable Return, 33/1 Maille Abaa, 50/1 Boomtown Kat, 100/1 Forest Lass, Soviet Cat.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THUNDERING STAR has already been beaten twice at short prices over hurdles and, in first-time blinkers in this sphere, will not be for everyone but this is much easier than the decent Kempton handicap he ran well in last time and he really should be tough to beat. With current form and ground doubts about main form danger Soulard, Mad Moose may be a better alternative for those seeking to oppose the favourite.[MCu] |
PRice gapper. Another display a market mover 7/1 and MArwan slightly inot 16/1 1.13 to place
330 PLUM
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The consistent Russian Flag should be on the premises again, while American World may prove capable of better still over fences. However, the suggestion is SEBASTIANO who couldn't live with a couple of fairly useful novices at level weights here last time but has a much more realistic chance back in handicap company. |
RApid Increase 5/1 in places
400 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cross Kennon, 6/1 Wiesenfurst, 8/1 Wondersobright, 10/1 Silistra, 14/1 Bellassini, Tamrai Dancer, 20/1 Mustamad, Ton-Chee, 25/1 Quiditch D´Ouxy, The Slider.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to think that CROSS KENNON (nap) took too much out of himself when scoring by an easy 22l in a large field at Lingfield on Thursday and a 7lb penalty should not prevent him from following up against largely inconsistent or less-than-convincing types.[SB] |
PRice gapper here with no market movers amongst the others. Soft ground the concern 1.16 to place
410 STRAT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Pascha Bere, 9/2 Mae Cigan, 5/1 Norman The Great, 7/1 Orpen Wide, 10/1 Kingscape, 12/1 Desert Lover, Pagano, 14/1 Evelith Echo, 16/1 L´Eau Du Nil, Rapide Plaisir, 20/1 Starr Flyer, 25/1 Danikhali, Lemon Silk.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to argue a convincing case for any of the runners, but it may be worth persevering with PASCHA BERE. The betting could offer some clues, notably in relation to Kingscape.[FC] |
Whyis Danakhi 8/1 in places and Lemon Silk 14/1 in palces. The non runner was originally 16/1 and should not have adversely affected matters
420 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Green Belt Elite, 9/2 Divvys Dream, 6/1 Ballymorn, Novarra, 10/1 Silver Bank, 12/1 Cat Six, Owlsley, 16/1 Winchester Red, 20/1 You Can Of Course, 25/1 Bollitree Bob, Fortification, 33/1 Anay Turge, Dawn At Sea.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some unexposed types and the betting should be informative, notably in relation to Ballymorn and Owlsley, but it may be advisable to stick with the more concrete claims of DIVVYS DREAM who is a likely improver for his new yard.[FC] |
Winchester Road now 11/2 in places
430 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Man Of The Moment, 5/1 Push The Port, 6/1 Portrait Royale, 8/1 Tomillielou, 10/1 Alderbrook Girl, Zimbabwe, 14/1 The Speaker, Victree, 16/1 Miss Doublet, 20/1 Impress, Napolito, 25/1 Strolling Vagabond, 33/1 Count The Cost, 40/1 Another Club Royal.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Man Of The Moment is relatively unexposed and has to be respected but a tempting each-way alternative is another quirky sort in ZIMBABWE, who has been claimer-ridden for a long time but now gets the services of Daryl Jacob (who has had winners for this yard) and looks competitively treated even on his recent best. |
PRice gapper of sorts and Strolling Vagabond 14/1 in places 1.7 to place
440 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Oopsmylord, 5/1 Thirtytwo Red, 13/2 Bravery Scotch, 8/1 Kingsmill Lake, Mr Goofy, 10/1 Moscow Court, 14/1 Babysitter, 16/1 Doof, Hume Theatre, 20/1 Super Cannes, 25/1 Watchthespace, 33/1 Balloughton, 66/1 Lanicene, Little Rocker.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OOPSMYLORD has been going places in points and it was good to see him translate that progress to this scene at Leicester, showing a level of form in the process that entitles him to the vote in this company. Thirtytwo Red is a solid alternative, while Mr Goofy could be the surprise package on his Rules debut. |
PRice gapper in a 2 mile 7 hunter chase! Bravery Scotch a slight mover here into 4/1
510 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Flanagan, 3/1 Pipe Banner, Quideo De Touzaine, 5/1 Quatzar, 10/1 Ashleys Lad, 14/1 Miss Sassi, 20/1 Our Ashley, 25/1 Simply Wings, 33/1 Canyouseeme, Supreme Platinum, 50/1 Disco Jack, 100/1 Magusta, Midnight Fun, Nishnash, Tram Express, Troop The Colour.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's not hard to pick holes in Pipe Banner's Taunton form (close third starting to look very limited) so preference is for FLANAGAN, who had the rest well beaten when chasing home an unknown quantity at Hereford. Quatzar is best of the rest with experience, while the market should shed some light on what is expected of Quideo De Touzaine.[AWJ] |
Pipe banner has leapfrogged into favouratism at 6/4 ( the McCoy factor?)
AShleys LAd 5/1 in places
CAn you seeme 12/1 in places
SHORTLISTERS
200 PLUMPTON
Neli HArvey looks obvious but 1.07 really is poor for a horse going up in trip on soft ground.
210 STRATFORD - Silk HAll slightly higher but still a poor 1.1 to place. Has the right man on board
300 PLUMPTON - El Dancer is 1.25 to win in a 4 runner race and 1.06 to place ( compare this 1.06 with a 33/1 outsider with Neil Harvey at 1.07 in a bigger field)
400 PLUMPTON - Cross Kennon is a price gapper and at 1.16 is the biggest priced to date
ONE A DAY
NEil HArvey - the concern here is the exposure in staking for target profit per day for a horse who has excelled at 2 milers and whose furthest run in race conditions has been 2 mile 2 furlongs. Will today's extra distance expose any stamina limitation? The price is short because the 3rd fav is a non runner. Zemsky has only had one run under rules over 3 miles 1 furlongs so today's distance should hold no worries and 1.17 bumps the price up .BArry Geraghty on board but a concern over lack of experience under rules
As a price gapper, Cross Kennon's price is a little more palatable at 1.16 and he looks to be the call at the prices today. A winner last time convincingly, this was not in keeping with poor previous form. Is this an anomolous result or has the horse turned a corner? Beaten a total of over 170 lengths in his 3 races prior to his 22 length victory last time out!!
El DAncer - 1.06 to place is again poor but a realistic assessment of a 1/4 shot's chance - With a 33/1 outsider he surely has to 1) not fall and 2) beat one other to place only. Over 2 miles, 1.25 to win is tradeable I suppose
For me, I may actually double up tomorrow. Liverpool v Real MAdrid must surely be a contender for under 2.5 goals or ,safer, under 3.5 goals instead of today's selections , ditto Juventus v Chelsea?
Wednesday will see MAn Utd v Inter Milan in what is sure NOT to be a goalfest. For me, these bets are far safer than any of today's selections
2nd leg matches where goals are worth a hell of a lot of money. Liverpool will shut up shop, and Chelsea only need to score without conceding, or indeed draw
Man Utd cannot afford to concede period.
Today's price for the obvious El DAncer is wholly unappetising but he should beat one at least and place at the poor 1.06.
I would suggest that tomorrow there will be better value place only selections with Cheltenham upon us and a 2nd bet can be taken in the Champions League under 2.5 goals market to compensate for laying low today!
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