230 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bow School, 5/4 Hi Dancer, 20/1 Barneys Lyric, 25/1 Etoile D´Or.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOW SCHOOL and Hi Dancer look well clear of the other two. The Johnson candidate has a chance to resume his improvement with a change back in underfoot conditions and is the more persuasive as a chaser |
Very obvious this one - 2 fancied versus 2 outsiders for 2 places. Will the jollies finish 1 and 2? The only concern will be fallers I would suspect 1.22 the pair to place is enticing as long as we can belive the outsiders will run to their prices and there'll be no fallers
240 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Rebel Duke, 4/1 Cheveton, 11/2 Tournedos, 6/1 Ebraam, Whiskey Creek, 8/1 Tajneed, 16/1 Pawan, 20/1 Foxy Music, Stoneacre Lad.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A well-run race in prospect but it usually pays to race up with the pace over this C&D and REBEL DUKE (nap) looks to have plenty in his favour from the widest stall with the cheekpieces he wore last time when ridden less prominently than usual taken off. David Nicholls fields two interesting runners but it's debateable whether either will be ideally suited by conditions and Cheveton could be the one for the forecast with his yard having been among the winners of late.[GN] |
I like the live market move for Rebel Duke into 7/4 and red across the board ( indicating being backed on the betting site)
Concern? 5 furlong handicap
255 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hi Shinko, 5/2 Aahaygirl, 3/1 The Scorching Wind, 20/1 Miss Pusey Street, Thoosa, 25/1 Fravia, 33/1 Chris´s Jem, Wightgold.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest-looking maiden. Aahaygirl isn't progressing and this should be well within the grasp of HI SHINKO who was unfortunate not to bag a win last year. The Scorching Wind is by far the most interesting of the remainder.[AC] |
8 runners down to 7, more importantly the non runner is the 3rd market leader and one of 3 initially under 20/1
Surely this leaves the front 2 miles clear? If still 3 the place, then they have outsistnding place opportunities
CAution - this is a maiden - fav coming back from a near 5 month layoff 1.13 and 1.21 to place the front 2
330 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Invincible Miss, 7/2 River Rye, 4/1 Special Cuvee, 6/1 Paymaster In Chief, 7/1 Elusive Ronnie, 33/1 Fancy Set, Tallulah´s Secret, 50/1 Incy Wincy, 100/1 Snoozing.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for INVINCIBLE MISS who is markedly down in class after two creditable efforts on Polytrack for her new yard this year and will be suited by the drop back in trip.[AC] |
Fav now out - initially 5 only under 33/1 , now it's 4 and River Rye may be a good place candidate as default favourite? 1.35 to place
405 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Equipe De Nuit, 2/1 Imaam, 14/1 Aahaygran, Avertitop, If Only, 20/1 Fuzzy Cat, Independent James, 25/1 Sams Spirit, 50/1 Love Allowed, My Flame, 66/1 Mr Rev, Stylish Mover, 100/1 Admiral Arry, Straboe.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On all known form this is likely to concern only Imaam and EQUIPE DE NUIT (nap). The Dunlop colt became expensive to follow last year so preference has to be for the latter who could prove a decent acquisition for Stuart Williams.[AC] |
Fav now a non runner -surely leaves David Bowie's missus, Imaam, one of only 2 originally under 14/1 in the ebtting forecast?
Not run since Sept 2008, and turned over twice at 2/5 odds previously BUT basing purely on the market, must have an outstanding place only chance? 1.16 to place
445 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Pairc Na Gcapall, 5/1 Canada Street, 6/1 Manbow, 8/1 Dawn Ride, 20/1 Major Belle.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PAIRC NA GCAPALL is the obvious place to turn after his Huntingdon win nine days ago and that is far from being the only piece of form this season that gives him a fine chance in this small field. Canada Street is feared most.[RA] |
PRice gapper here, but 3 miler and 2 places and a handicap. Should be competitive for the place. Major Belle clear outsider at 33/1 1.34 to place
SHORTLISTERS
230 WETHERBY - Front 2 look to have this race between them barring a faller or a run out, or unseating rider.
TAke your choice really. Bow school pulled up on soft ground last time out - if that is the only reason for the pullin up, then today's ground will suit. Both horses don't stand out as eye popping form wise so we must assume the 2 outsiders are not that good.
1.22 is a great price, difficult to chose which horse, will probably go with market leader in the live market, currently Hi Dancer
255 FOLKSTONE - yes the flat is upon us - maidens galore at Folkstone, and conundrums regarding horses coming back from long layoffs but who showed something last time out.
In a race of 3 under 20/1 in the betting forecast, one of those 3 is a non runner. Hi Shinko appeals to me, having run in a class 2 last time out (hence the 8 in the form) - prior to that, placed very regularly. THe live market is key in all maidens but probability wise, and taking my initial cues from the betting forecaster, Hi Shinko looks primed to place at a reasonable 1.13 (still 3 places)
405 FOLKSTONE - another maiden ,but a nother race where I could take my cues from the betting forecaster. Originally only 2 under 14/1, only one remains now, and that's Imaam, who has placed regularly BUT is coming back after a concerted period off. Still, a price gapper, odds on, and could place at least 1.16
445 WETHERBY
I don't like shorties in handicaps but this one's form looks progressive. Pairc Na Gcapall, 1st last time out, 5 runner field, one clear outsider. Needs to beat 2 horses to place only (2 the place) 1.35 is very appealing but tells us this is a 3 miler+ over obstacles and fav has 7lb penalty
Form of opposition littered with p's and f's which is a contrast to the 54521 progressive profile of the fav.
Might be worth a chance at the prices
ONE A DAY
Tricky today - maidens coming back from a few months layoff - how much of original ability is retained? That's the question.
Hi Shinko is one such horse and 1.16 looks a good price to place if retaining ability. Elsewhere, the jumpers offers better odds, a 2 horse race initially - simply toss a coin and at 1.22 you get a decent shout with either Bow School and Hi Dancer, who simply have to beat the clear outsiders to place
pairc Na Gcapall at 1.35 looks highly progressive and is a big price to place in a 5 horse race with one clear outsider at 33/1 in the live market. The question you must ask is ,will this horse get beaten by 2 other horses and thus not place? A clear price gap indicates maybe not!!
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