Well, my prediction regarded Dishdasha proved founded didn't it. Guess what - an 8 runner race and he finishes 4th!! Hmmmm 4/5 out to 13/8 in the win market. 1.14 to place out to 1.26.
I would have been furious had this been my one a day selection.
Leading Contender -well - nae bother! Job done with ease and another probability bet I hope you recognised
2 winners at 6/1 and the most obvious was Soccerjackpot (20/1 in the betting forecast and 6/1 at the off ) and Chiara
200 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/6 Conflictofinterest, 9/1 Nothing´s Easy, 14/1 Ellen Street, 16/1 Ede´s The Best, Preuty Boy, 40/1 Uncle Arther, 50/1 Abbey Dore.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CONFLICTOFINTEREST left his disappointing hurdles debut run well behind when a good third in a Grade 2 novice over C&D last time, form which is light years in front of anything else on offer. The odds will be very prohibitive but it will be a major surprise if he is beaten. Nothing's Easy may be the best forecast option. |
Now 1/10. Now this place only betting is not about trying to be clever. Look for the "bleedin obvious!" and here is a case in point. May be worth a win only interest but with 7 runners and 2 places, we may get a decent enough place only price. Ellen Street 9/1 (each way thievery) and McCoy on board the obvious each way punt 1.11 to win and 1.06 to place
220 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Magical Destiny, 9/4 Karta, 9/2 Clippity Clop, 11/2 The Bully Wee, 20/1 Elevate Bobbob, Funky Munky, Gingko Lady, 25/1 Lunar Storm, 50/1 Gamegear.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGICAL DESTINY (nap) gets the vote ahead of potential improver Karta in a modest maiden in which few other than Clippity Clop and The Bully Wee make any appeal.[GN] |
Clippety Clop now 3/1 -slight move and 4 under 10/1 but a maiden
230 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Soprano, 7/2 Funny Fellow, 9/2 Shake The Barley, 5/1 The Spieler, 9/1 I´m A Legend, 10/1 Fire And Rain, 11/1 Ballyman, 14/1 Diego Velasquez, 25/1 Taipan´s Promise.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SOPRANO and The Spieler may be the two to concentrate on. Preference is for Soprano, who has always had plenty of ability when on song and looked back in rude health when winning well in a Leicester novice handicap last time for much his best performance over fences so far. If he is in the same form, a 9lb rise may not be enough to stop a follow-up. [MCu] |
Taipans Promise 12/1 with blue square,
240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Quaddick Lake, 5/1 Line Artic, 11/2 Desert Storm, 6/1 The Composer, 8/1 Beat The System, Maximix, 10/1 Freddy´s Star, Local Present, Masjoor, 20/1 Bollitree Bob, Captain Becket.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUADDICK LAKE has been a bitter disappointment given his initial promise but connections are presumably persevering for a reason and the stable is in better form now than when he was last in action. The return to drier ground could be another key issue. Local Present is an interesting alternative.[AWJ] |
CAptain Beckett 14/1
305 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 China Gold, 11/8 King´s Forest, 9/2 Overtly Blue, 12/1 Dundry, 40/1 Inchloch, 50/1 Basis Point.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless Nicky Henderson's Overtly Blue improves significantly for the switch to hurdling, this really should come down to a duel between CHINA GOLD and King's Forest. The latter probably has a marginal edge on what the pair have done so far over hurdles but there is a good chance that China Gold can improve for this step up in trip and that swings the vote in his favour. [MCu] |
I rarrely get let down by Choc 'n' King on the now odds on shot. 2 clear outsiders at 66/1 or bigger and Dundry now 18/1 leaving 3 for 2 places hopefully
Overtly Blue could be the fly in the ointment 1.26 and 1.32 to place the front 2
305 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Tawaagg, 7/2 Bangonform, 5/1 Madman, 10/1 Colbert Station, Numen, 12/1 Senor Bob, Sumkindasuprstar, 14/1 Crowning Moment, Fields Of Glory, Markets Field, Odonimee, 20/1 Rockyaboya, 25/1 Allsettosecond, Koshere King, Mr Goodenough, 33/1 Blackwater Sparkle,
Ruby on Tawaagg who has finished 2nd twice already. Ruby has continued his great Cheltenham form into his Irish races and when onboard a shortie (now 4/9 with the bookies) has not disappointed 1.12 to place
325 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Turtle Time Lucky, 5/1 Lakil House, 6/1 On Your Way, 7/1 Regal Rumpus, 8/1 Pagan Magic, 12/1 Davids Day, Stromstad, 14/1 Another Ambition, Dalian, Swampy Blue, 16/1 Flemross, 20/1 Whistling Gypse, 25/1 Melon Delta, 33/1 Gandalf, Mellow Music, Platium Starlight, 50/1 Quantico, Vinorine.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There may not be any need to look further than TURTLE TIME LUCKY. A decent and consistent sort in good-class handicap hurdles this season, he made a hugely promising debut over fences at Limerick just over six weeks ago when coming from a long way back to get within a length of his better-fancied stable companion Horner Woods. The form of that couldn't have been much better franked by the winner chasing home Cooldine in the RSA Novice Chase at Cheltenham last week. He's capable of winning in better company than this and is certain to improve further.\n |
PRice gapper here with form franked at Cheltenham - Interesting! 1.34 to place in an illiquid market
330 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Elliwan, 11/2 Lady Longcroft, 7/1 That´ll Do Nicely, 10/1 Coral Shores, 14/1 Spares And Repairs, 16/1 Deadline, 20/1 Capistrano, 25/1 Mill Beattie, 33/1 Golden Future, 40/1 Little Rococoa,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ELLIWAN is a confident selection. He joined Mick Easterby with a BHA mark of 80, which is now down to 53 after several runs over unsuitably sharp trips, and is unpenalised for his success here last week, while the booking of Jamie Spencer (4-8 for the yard in recent seasons) adds appeal.[SB] |
Class 6 0-60 handicap and another shortie/price gapper - their performance has been excellent in these races
That boy Spencer onboard and is he going to be "straight" in this race? Again middle distances allow for jockeys to ,ahem, accidentally get trapped at the rail, not find the gap, start slowly etc etc etc. 1.15 to place
350 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Laudamus, 5/1 Peter Pole, 6/1 Royal Hilarity, 13/2 Weather Permitting, 7/1 Baren De Doc, 8/1 Bold Punt, Lancaster Sound, 14/1 Maree Hall, 16/1 Bertie May, 20/1 Atherstone Hill, Justabout, Killing Me Softly, 66/1 Indian Chase.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these are so uninspiring that Peter Pole, a lightly-raced French winner who's having his first start in Britain, may well have been found a good opportunity at the first attempt by his up-and-coming trainer. He must be noted in the betting but on the British evidence ROYAL HILARITY and Laudamus are perhaps the most likely to figure prominently.[RA] |
Justabout is at 8/1
Peter Pole slight move into 3/1
405 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Boscage, 3/1 Faithful Ruler, 9/2 Electric Warrior, 10/1 United Nations, 20/1 Sudden Impact.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOSCAGE looked potentially useful at Lingfield and might have enough improvement in him to overcome his lack of experience on the surface. Electric Warrior is feared most.[GN] |
Faithful Ruler and Electric Warrior are non runners, leaving the original fav against horses originally priced 10/1 and 20/1. Surely an outsidtanding chance , not just to win,m but the place. The price I suspect to place will not be very good 1.05 to place, United Nations 1.23 to place and Sudden Impact 3.25 to place
415 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dominican Monk, 5/1 Huguenot, 11/2 Quillan Hill, 13/2 Green Gamble, 8/1 Ouste, 17/2 Rapid Increase, 10/1 Kerriemuir Lass.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DOMINICAN MONK (nap) won very well at Sandown last time and though that wasn't a strong race for that track, is very much the one to beat off a 7lb higher mark. With last year's winner Green Gamble's current form open to conjecture, Huguenot may be next best. [MCu] |
A price gapper here but Hugeonot now 3/1 - only 7 runners mean only 2 places. Why is Ouste 20/1 in the live market? Over priced (if the betting forecaster was accurate in his initial assessment)?
Whenever you see a betting forecast with 10/1 the "outsider", this tells you this is a potentially competitive handicap 1.54 to place tells you this is, indeed, potentially competitive
425 EXETER
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mr Ed and Lord Of Illusion will be high on the list judged on their former exploits under rules but this may prove an insufficient stamina test for the former, while the latter probably needs to step up on his latest Taunton form. The firmer ground can help in that regard but he may well still be vulnerable to the lightly-raced Shillingstone and to DANCER LIFE, who looks back near his best.[RA] |
450 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Green Belt Elite, 4/1 Shali San, 8/1 Sam Lord, 10/1 Spanish Conquest, 12/1 Major Miller, Maxwil, Smoothly Does It, 14/1 Sumdancer, 16/1 Cockatoo, 20/1 Hatch A Plan.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shali San still looks well handicapped but the worry is that 2m round here could be on the sharp side for her and she might struggle to cope with GREEN BELT ELITE, who has looked a different horse since sent handicapping and is taken to go in again for a stable on cloud nine right now.[AWJ] |
Spanish Conquest now 4/1
510 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Augustus John, 5/2 William´s Way, 11/4 Calculating, 9/2 Victory Quest, 20/1 Spiritonthemount.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A muddling race in prospect which might count against the likes of regular course winners Victory Quest and Calculating. Augustus John could prove to be well handicapped still after his romp last time, but there are grounds for thinking WILLIAM'S WAY is also still on a fair mark still and he could be the best served of these if it turns tactical.[GN] |
Spirit on the mount 14/1 in places
520 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Nippy Des Mottes, 3/1 Jurado Express, 4/1 Nyrche, 8/1 Jubilee George, 10/1 De Luain Gorm, 20/1 Gulabill, 25/1 Oranger, Shareef, Toi Express, 33/1 Cape Verde Sal, Quid Pro Quo, 66/1 Papillon De Iena.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jurado Express should make a bold bid to win this for a second time with his sound jumping such an asset in these races, but a soft lead is highly unlikely with at least two other potential pacemakers in the field and this also looks a stronger renewal. NIPPY DES MOTTES is unlikely to fail through a lack of fitness on his belated return and, still only an 8yo, it's quite feasible that he can come back as well as ever.[AWJ] |
Quid Pro Quo 14/1 in places , Jubilee George 4/1 in places
SHORTLIST
200 KEMPTON - Conflict of interest 1.11 to win and 1.06 to place. To be honest I thought the place only price would be bigger given only 2 places but the opposition must be relatively poor
305 KEMPTON - China Gold 1.26 to place and Kings Forest 1.32 to place .2 clear outsiders at 50/1 or greater should play no part, leaving 4 to fight out 2 places, the remaining horses 8/1 and 14/1 .
Races of this nature very rarely see the 1-2 in the betting finish 1 and 2 at the end, and it is , of course ,difficult to predict which of the market leaders may underperform, and ,indeed, which of the others may overperform.
China Gold is up in trip and has Choc Thornton who knows the horse riding again. He's always someone to have on your side very definitely
305 WEXFORD - Tawaagg has Ruby on board and has been backed into 4/9 - 1.12 to place .Yielding ground teh concern at Wexford but it's sunny over here at the moment
330 SOUTHWELL - I have always relied upon class 6 0-60 handicap price gappers who have not let me down as yet. 1.15 to place, but fresh in my mind is Frankie's ride on Dishdasha yesterday engineering the 4th place in an 8 runner race!
1.15 is a great price but again its a middle distance event. Regular readers of the blog will recognise Elliwan as a market mover (winning) last time out. Concern that that race may have been the race to have got involved with the horse at the far better price.
A difficult choice this one given the performance of my price gapper in lowly handicaps system versus Spencer on board
ONE A DAY
A very difficult choice today.Conflict of Interest should bolt up with ease, and only a fall will prevent that. 1.06 to place means we are sacrificing 0.05 points for having the horse finish in 2 places. Target profit per dayers will be placing a larger stake than usual
I return to Elliwan again simply because he is the price gapper in a 0-60 class 6 handicap and the performance of these price gappers has been extremely consistent. POSITIVES - looked like a horse deliberately campaigned at shorter trips than ideal so as to engineer a falling offical rating and a consequent gamble last time out. Unpenalised for last win and now run at a trip that suits the horse 1.15 bumps up the price from the 1.06 for conflict of interest - will I be cursing Mr Spencer?
All shortlisters look good enough today and anyone fancying a greater price could look to China Gold under Robert Thornton for Alan King, but note my words of caution about these races earlier
Not quite Denman at 3.55 to place but c'est la vie!
Slainte!
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