Back to the humdrum now, and Ruby returns with a bump to Naas.
150 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sadler´s Star, 7/2 Sacrilege, 6/1 Always Bold, 13/2 Santo Stefano, 7/1 Frankie Anson, Roganstown, 10/1 Costa Courta, 20/1 Gofannon, Mr Bond, 33/1 Epidaurian King, Salute The General, The Kealshore Kid, 40/1 Spume, 50/1 Prince Samos, Regional Counsel, 100/1 Mardood, Mysterious World,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Always Bold is a potential improver while both Sacrilege and Roganstown have shown a fair level of form but bSADLER'S STAR sets the standard the others have to aim at after good placed efforts at Taunton and Sandown. A market move for well-bred newcomer Frankie Anson should not go unheeded.[DH] |
5 under 20/1 would seem to be the horses to concentrate on here and the fav has shortened
BUT maiden hurdles can produce unreadable results
205 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Apatura Dik, 7/2 Just Smudge, 5/1 Dream Garden, 8/1 Andrew Nick, 9/1 Bundle Of Fun, 10/1 Kate´s Gift, 12/1 It´s In The Stars, Nicto De Beauchene, 16/1 Silly Wupple.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Just Smudge looks the pick of the six who failed to give their true running last time but could have his work cut out to get to grips with front-running APATURA DIK (nap) who drops back to a more appropriate trip.[FC] |
The fav, under McCoy has hardened in the betting to 2/1 in places. 3 miles+ and soft ground not the ideal 1.48 to place
210 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sports Line, 11/4 Corskeagh Royale, 7/2 Jaffonnien, 6/1 Beckett Rock, 7/1 Sam Adams, 10/1 Who´s Deal, 16/1 Awkward Moment, 33/1 Scenic Rush.
3rd fav a non runner should make life easier for Ruby's mount Sports Line to place? The straight 8 reduced to 7, will Betfair still pay out 3 places? 1.12 to place and, yes, 3 to place
215 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Thumbs Up, 9/4 Sir Tantallus Hawk, 7/1 Legion D´Honneur, 12/1 Alderbridge, World Of Choice, 16/1 Leo´s Quest, 20/1 For A Dancer, 25/1 Authentic Act, 28/1 Apartman, 50/1 What A Cliche, 66/1 Solway Blue, 150/1 Ravensbill, Recoil.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Legion D'Honneur is an interesting recruit from the Flat worth a precautionary market check but he will need to be useful to pose serious opposition to THUMBS UP (nap) and Sir Tantallus Hawk, both of whom already have decent hurdles form to their name and can be expected to dominate. The big weight concession earns Thumbs Up preference. [MCu] |
Fav a non runner and Sir Tantallus is a horse I have place backed previously. 16/1 system redundant in this race with an evens non runner 1.15 to place
Has a conditional jockey onboard today
220 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Youngstown, 11/2 Pheidias, 7/1 Knockavilla, 8/1 Aldiruos, Gold Thread, Mud Monkey, Rio De Janeiro, Terenzium, 12/1 Imtihan, Solent, 16/1 Greenbelt, 25/1 Doris´s Gift, 33/1 Currahee.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Even though he's not raced on ground this quick before YOUNGSTOWN is the selection, as he's very much on the upgrade. He's progressed since finishing behind Pheidias here on Boxing Day and may have more to fear from Aldirous, who has reasonable each-way prospects.[DH] |
Doris Gift now 14/1
235 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Victorias Groom, 13/2 Sangfroid, 7/1 Heraldry, 8/1 Award Winner, Bulwark, The Shoe, 9/1 South O´The Border, 10/1 Another Brother, Maktu, 12/1 Leac An Scail, 16/1 Boomerang, Snake Charmer, 20/1 King´s Revenge, 25/1 Gold Gun, Mumbles Head.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BULWARK does have a health warning but he took a big prize on the Flat last year and last month's handicap debut as a hurdler, in a hot Pertemps qualifier, was promising. He is almost certainly capable of better than this mark. Fellow novices Award Winner, The Shoe and Sangfroid may be the most potent dangers among the rest.[RA |
Kings Revenge 14/1 in places
240 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Joncol, 9/2 The Fonze, 5/1 Top Of The Rock, 6/1 Travino, 7/1 Earth Magic, 12/1 An Peinteir, Raven´s Run.
Price gapper but only 2 places. Note the "outsiders" at 12/1 showing this is a tight race 1.12 to place
300 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Flying Lady, 7/2 Hold The Bucks, 7/1 Crown Affair, Destinationunknown, Fantastic Fred, 10/1 Daily Double, Whotsit, 14/1 General Sam, 33/1 Northern Champ, Primera Rossa, 66/1 Come On Toby.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Flying Lady is the pick of the weights but she's yet to win and, for that reason, she is taken on with HOLD THE BUCKS, who does know how to score and is an ultra-consistent sort who looks nailed on to give his running. [RY] |
Fantastic Fred 9/2 but this is a claimer
325 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Moscow Catch, 4/1 Presenting Forever, 8/1 Option Money, 12/1 Easby Park, 16/1 King Lok, 25/1 O´Sogood, 50/1 Ballysimon, Pan Pan.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOSCOW CATCH, who caught a tartar in Tarablaze at Haydock last time, meets nothing of that calibre here and he'll take the world of beating provided he stays the extra distance. Presenting Forever and Option Money look best of the opposition.[DH] |
The straight 8 reduced to 7 -hopefully still 3 the place. Fav battered into 1/3 and the makings of a good probability bet with 2 at 100/1 and 1 at 20/1 which we can hopefully discount. Key to this is if Betfair still does 3 the place 1.06 to place - would you prefer this or under 4.5 goals Man utd v Liverpool at 1.09??
330 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Gaily Noble, 7/2 Badge Of Honour, 5/1 Dubai Storming, 11/2 High Cross, 6/1 Tinshu, 10/1 Blue Tango, 16/1 Wilbury Star, 20/1 Orsippus.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have made the running in their recent races, so a front-running battle wouldn't do any of them much good, but as things stand GAILY NOBLE is the selection in an open-looking affair starting life off in handicaps from a decent mark and still open to plenty more improvement. A good test would suit the progressive Dubai Storming given that he has form at longer trips.[GN] |
Wilbury Star 7/1
350 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Grand Theatre, 6/1 Lie Forrit, 13/2 Magical Legend, 15/2 Gunner Jack, 9/1 Sheriff Hutton, Star Beat, 10/1 Mortimers Cross, Singhalongtasveer, 11/1 Solway Minstrel, The Hollinwell, 12/1 Smugglers Bay, 16/1 Raining Horse, 20/1 Mr Woods, 25/1 Arctic Echo, 40/1 Kelami, Risk Runner, 50/1 Dan Buoy, 66/1 Classic Act.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fair few to consider. MAGICAL LEGEND has a touch of class and, with a decent claimer helping negate a penalty for Sunday's win in a fair race at Market Rasen, may be the answer. Progressive and lightly raced novices Grand Theatre and Lie Forrit appeal most of the remainder. [MCu] |
The Hollinwell and Raining horse the movers (now 9/2 and 7/1)
400 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Shining Gale, 5/2 Striking Article, 9/2 Mill Side, 100/1 Linlithgow Lad.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only Linlithgow Lad can be ruled out with total conviction but SHINING GALE has a bit in hand of his two main rivals Striking Article and Mill Side on the ratings and he should be hard to beat.[DH] |
Another probability race with a 100/1 outsider meaning 3 are vying for 2 places (barring a fall of course) Shining Gale looks the obvious contender here, but it's simply a matter of making a choice and hoping your horse finishes 1st or 2nd. 1.23 to place is a big price but does give the impression that all 3 have chances of placing.
405 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Bee Stinger, Marmooq, 11/2 Murrin, 6/1 Lopinot, 13/2 Ghufa, 9/1 Forbidden, 10/1 Royal Envoy, Sew´N´So Character, 12/1 Grey Boy, 25/1 Kabeer, Sotik Star, 33/1 Flying Applause.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Something of a tactical affair on the cards, but that scenario didn't stop LOPINOT last time and, even after his latest rise, he remains on a fair mark. Murrin, Marmooq and Bee Stinger should all go well, while Sew'N'So Character is another to consider.[GN] |
Sotik Star 14/1 - check out its betting forecast price
410 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Acordeon, 11/4 Ogee, 9/2 Quiver Hill, 5/1 Our Hero, 11/2 Bormo, 25/1 Radmores Revenge, 40/1 Pugilist, Shooters Wood, 100/1 Chief Lady Olwyn, Vasodilator.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ogee sets the standard but may just be vulnerable again, with Our Hero, Quiver Hill and, in particular, ACORDEON, all open to significant improvement.[RA] |
4 horses are 50/1 or bigger and Radmore is a non runner, leaving 5 most likely to fight out for 3 places.
The excellent Barry Geraghty is on the fav - Choc is on Bormo, and this may be a race where there's too many good jockeys onboard the 5 most likely for me to make a firm decision on who will place 1.29 to place
430 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 In Vino, 3/1 Gilsland, 7/1 Double Parked, 8/1 Dancing Dik, 12/1 Amir Pasha, Whispering Death, 16/1 King Raven, 20/1 Hightori, Tally Ho Back, 25/1 Roman Cruise, Waterdale, 33/1 Lord Samposin, 50/1 Galapagos Islands, Monkerty Tunkerty, 66/1 Toby Mac, 100/1 Snurgecal.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Proven stamina gives Dancing Dik some appeal each-way, but there is likely to be better to come from GILSLAND who, as a half-brother to an Irish National winner, should appreciate the step up in distance. |
Will the 2nds fav's absence open up the race for the King horse as favourite
440 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Volito, 7/2 Robin The Till, 5/1 Twenty Score, 11/2 Christmascametwice, 8/1 Chasca, 12/1 Tallulah Sunrise, 20/1 True Decision, 33/1 Chenin, Geese A Laying, Wicklewood.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VOLITO made a pleasing debut behind a couple rated in the mid 70s on his debut and ought to improve with the drop in trip expected to be no inconvenience. Robin The Till looks to have something to find on his turf form, but merits every consideration in a race which lacks strength in depth.[GN] |
A regular sight now on the all weather. Spencer rides a market leader whose price contracts to 11/8. A rare foray for Jonjo O'Neill to the all weather 1.3 to place
Another dilemma horse (or Dimella as Jade Goody's Mum would say) -only had the one run - how do we know that 1) the horse is still not green 2) the horse can replicate that one and only run again?
455 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Houston Dynimo, 7/2 Edas, 6/1 Black Beauty, Hazeldene, 10/1 Folk Tune, 14/1 Border Tale, Burnt Oak, 20/1 Dontpaytheferryman, King Daniel, Little Bob, Well Disguised.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The most interesting runner by some way in a fair handicap is HOUSTON DYNAMO, who has shown steadily progressive form in three starts over hurdles. This useful Flat performer is open to plenty of improvement and is taken to get the better of Edas, who remains unexposed over hurdles. [RY] |
Quite a move for Black Beauty into 9/4 fav. Well Disguised now 14/1 too
505 WETH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Kealshore Lass, 11/2 Ballybriggan, Mr Syntax, 6/1 Sir Mulberry Hawk, 8/1 Stopped Out, 10/1 Catapult King, Stronghaven, 14/1 Johnny Rocket, Knight In Purple, National Heritage, 20/1 Don´t Be So Sakhee, 25/1 Plum Mac, 33/1 Thornton George, 50/1 Quelbal, 100/1 Lindengrove.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Course winners Stopped Out and Kealshore Lass are entitled to respect but in what is probably just an average bumper it may be worth siding with West country challenger BALLYBRIGGAN, particularly if the betting gives the right signals.[FC] |
Like Black Beauty, Sir Mulberry Hawk has been catapulted to head the market at 11/4
SHORTLIST
210 NAAS - SPorts line -3rd fav non runner - Ruby on board - 3 places - 1.12
325 WETH - Moscow Catch - battered into 1/3 - 1.06 now - 3 places
400 WETH - Shining Gale - 100/1 outsider - 3 vying for 2 places - 66% chance of success - 1.24 is a big price with this in mind
Man Utd v Liverpool - 1.09 under 4.5 goals
ONE A DAY
I'll go in time order today and hope Ruby is not suffering from a hangover. Before this bet, Man Utd v Liverpool under 4.5 goals at 1.09 will be my target profit per day bet in the hope I can nail it before the racing starts
No comments:
Post a Comment