230 Stratford
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Raincoat, 11/2 Dip In The Med, 13/2 Riddleofthesands, 7/1 Castellina, 12/1 Blessed Forever, Izita Star, 16/1 Maille Abaa, 20/1 Samurai Warrior, 33/1 Always Cruising, Surprise Act, 66/1 Street Warrior, 100/1 Elevate Jack, Just Designs, 150/1 Awe.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although it was disappointing smart Flat recruit RAINCOAT couldn't beat the likes of sprint handicapper Geojimali on his hurdle debut at Musselburgh he still has a lot to offer even on that form in a minor event like this.[EMW] |
First price gapper of the day Izita star now 4/1 -important move? 1.23 to place and Izita 1.69 to place
Samuri Warrior 12/1 too
240 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Louphole, 3/1 Jessica Wigmo, 9/2 Prince Of Delphi, Radiator Rooney, 7/1 Rabbit Fighter, 16/1 Brunelleschi.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All of these are usually held up so tactics look sure to play a part. Louphole ran well on his debut for his new connections here last week but he is invariably played late so this may not play to his strengths and it may be worth chancing RABBIT FIGHTER who is ideally suited by this trip on Polytrack, is potentially well treated and hails from a yard in good form. |
2 non runners and the outsider still remains -can we discount it? Leaves 3 then vying for 2 places. I have noticed with these races that even when the probability is on your side, strange results do happen 1.36 , 1.63 , 2.12 (prince) to place BIG prices indicate this is far from straightforward even with 2 non runners
300 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ready To Crown, 7/2 Greyt Big Stuff, 4/1 Boo, 11/2 Sam Whiskey, 13/2 Risk, 20/1 Deep Squeeze, Look Up, 25/1 Formedable, 50/1 Apache Indian, Dr Light, Mtoto´s Prince, 100/1 Bitesize, Peas ´n Beans, Wotavadun.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: READY TO CROWN sets the standard, has found a bit of improvement in blinkers on the Flat recently and looks the one to side with. Boo looks the main form threat but Greyt Big Stuff, who makes his hurdle debut after a long absence, Sam Whiskey who should improve for his initial experience, and Risk who cost six-figures and was useful on the Flat in France in his youth all need considering |
5 sub 20/1 in the betting forecast but another maiden hurdle and these races can be difficult to read. Risk a slight mover into 2nd favouratism
350 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 North Parade, 3/1 New Star, 6/1 Watson´s Bay, 8/1 Dragon Slayer, Motivated Choice, Prince Noel, 12/1 Kildare Sun, 20/1 King Of The Beers.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: North Parade should run well again kept to this company but NEW STAR goes very well at this track and his win over C&D on his penultimate start looks strong in the context of this race. |
It doesn't get any easier here with this claimer - interesting market mover in New Star into 7/4
Positives - 3 the place in an 8 runner race 1.34 to place
400 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Transvestite, 11/2 Archie Gunn, Farmers Cross, Milan Deux Mille, 10/1 Blazing Desert, Mollys Garden, 16/1 Bring It On Home, Inchloch, Istron Bay, 20/1 Haldibari, Petrus De Sormain, Prince Des Marais, 25/1 Santarctique, Zelos, 33/1 Katalak.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Transvestite looked in decent form when winning on the AW for his new yard and may be capable of better back over hurdles, albeit off 6lb higher than his latest failure in October. FARMERS CROSS is an interesting newcomer to handicaps given his decent point form and he also has plenty going for him. |
Haldibari move into 10/1
410 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Onemix, 13/8 Boscage, 7/2 Pyrus Time, 50/1 Aegean Rose, 100/1 Tightrope.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the debut of Onemix at Kempton in December but, like Pyrus Time, she is going to be suited by middle distances and the costly BOSCAGE, who is much more speedily bred, is an interesting rival.[AC] |
5 runner race - 2 places - 2 horses at 40/1 and 100/1 redcing the field to 3. Boscage odds on but a maiden runner debutant 1.23 , 1.3 to place the front 2 ( 2 the place)
430 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Paradise Expected, 3/1 Dew Drop Inn, 11/2 Glenda Hoddle, 17/2 Gone Cloudy, 11/1 Bundle Up, 16/1 Elsie May, 18/1 Present, 20/1 Definitely It, 25/1 Flag Flier, Photogenique, 28/1 Baker´s Girl, 33/1 Evening Class, Miss Merenda, 40/1 Captivate.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PARADISE EXPECTED (nap) got back near her best under today's rider on her comeback for new connections last time and looks the one to beat off just 1lb higher here. The main dangers are Dew Drop Inn and Glenda Hoddle.[DM] |
4 under 10/1 but conditional jockeys 1.63 to place is very big for a price gapper
450 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Blue Tomato, Imprimis Tagula, 6/1 Savile´s Delight, 8/1 Lethal, 10/1 Hart Of Gold, Peter´s Storm, 12/1 Geoffdaw, 16/1 Brazilian Brush, 20/1 Trinculo.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Blue Tomato keeps finding one too good in this grade and today could be the turn of IMPRIMIS TAGULA to lower his colours. Back to form in the face of good support at Southwell last time, he is effective on Polytrack and has more to recommend him than most |
Class 6 claimer over 5 furlongs - another tricky race. Blue Tomato has come 2nd last 4 times ,not beaten by much. Only 2 horses under 10/1. Any reason why Blue Tomato should not be competitive in this race given his consistency in the place only market? 1.34 / 1.46 to place the front 2
500 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Mighty Moose, 5/1 Great Tsar, 11/2 Strident, 6/1 Humid Climate, 15/2 Michigan D´Isop, 8/1 Rash Moment, 9/1 Silver Adonis, 10/1 Noble Bily, 14/1 Najca De Thaix, 18/1 Day Du Roy, 20/1 Milton Des Bieffes, 25/1 Craven, Tom Fontenailles.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIGHTY MOOSE is back below his last winning mark, has won when fresh in the past and could be poised to strike with conditions in his favour after an 88 day-break. Strident and Silver Adonis are feared most of the rest, while it would be no surprise if the unpredictable Michigan D'Isop bounced back to form.[ |
Rash Moment the mover here into 4/1
530 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Frascati Park, 11/2 Red Rouble, 7/1 Books Review, Stratford Stroller, 8/1 Little Lord West, 10/1 Divy, 12/1 Paddy The Pirate, 33/1 Beau Signor, The Giant Bolster, 50/1 Rioroy, Shadow Wood, 66/1 Barlin Bay, Devon Native, Phare Isle.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRASCATI PARK has shown useful form in three bumper runs, sets a clear standard and should be able to shrug off a double penalty if near his best after five months off. Books Review could threaten if finding some improvement while Red Rouble, Divy and Stratford Stroller need a market check |
PRice gapper BUT 11 of the 14 are newcomers and fav is 5 months off and carrying a double penalty 1.22 to place
ONE A DAY
The kind of poor quality fare you would expect pre Cheltenham, and it's claimers, conditional jockey events, maidens, maiden hurdles - all very unappetising.
First race of interest must be the 410 LINGFIELD - why? Well 2 clearly priced outsiders in this 5 runner race (40/1 and 100/1 in places)
Of those remaining, the Johnston/Fanning Boscage is odds on and backed BUT is a debutant with Onemix having just the one run being a near market leader.
Dare we take the chance with this debutant beating at least one of Onemix or Pyrus Time to place - if so 1.3 to place may be a risk worth taking
450 WOLVES - Blue Tomato is a consistent placer , finishing 2nd 4 times on the trot - only him and Imprimus are under 10/1 BUT will Blue Tomato place again or bomb out in another claimer? Will Blue and Imprimus both be placed? 1.34 to place shows again that this is no gimme
And that's it today in a day where I feel very uneasy getting involved at all.
ALTERNATIVES - Shaktar are 1/5 away from home to Illichevets - 1.25 on Betfair -again I am going purely by price - away from home and 1/5 - must have an outstanding chance of winning
I may actually opt for Shaktar at 1.25. I know nothing about the teams save they were recent opponents of Spurs. Home team are 10/1 to win!! We will most likely be facing this lack of quality racing up to Festival time
If there is an opportunity in the live market in the horse racing prior to 5pm kick off, then I will attempt to get my target profit.
410 LING must be the better probability wise surely and we must have faith that the money behind a newcomer to 1) racing 2) the all weather is warranted and the $475,000 can at least beat one of the likely rivals as the outsiders run as outsiders
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