200 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Prince Sabaah, 3/1 Prince Geeno, St Killian´s Run, 12/1 Beat The System, 14/1 Never Lost, 16/1 Ben Ami, Petito, Something Stupid, 25/1 Bite The Boss, 33/1 The Accordionist, 50/1 Ajzal, Quondor Noire, 66/1 Hot Choc, How´s Things, Princess Teddy, 100/1 Cnidos, Well Done You.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak race. Prince Sabaah is something of an underachiever and, although St Killian's Run can be expected to do better, it may pay to side with PRINCE GEENO, who should be able to win a race like this if fulfilling the promise he showed in bumpers last season.[FC] |
Why is Adjal 50/1 in the betting forecast and 8/1 in the live market? Ditto Something stupid at 6/1
220 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Enfant De Lune, 7/2 Okafranca, 9/2 Allfortara, 5/1 Have You Seen Me, 13/2 Super Directa, 20/1 Sir Ian, 25/1 Knight Woodsman, 33/1 Bee Sting, Sizeable Return, 50/1 Giollacca, Pugilist, Sleeping.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these have shown enough to win a race over hurdles, notably Allfortara, while bumper winner Have You Seen Me is also of strong interest. However, preference is still for the field's only previous hurdles winner ENFANT DE LUNE, who saw off quite a decent sort at Doncaster in December and may well have further progress in him for his top yard. [MCu] |
3rd fav non runner - Market leader now odds on - 4 under 20/1 - SUper Directa the mover into 3/1 1.16
230 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Sashenka, 15/2 Burgess Hill, Ruby Crown, 8/1 Thursday´s Knight, 12/1 Anchor Bridge, 16/1 Inn For The Dancer, Saphire Night, 20/1 Free To Air, Worbarrow Bay, 25/1 Daarth.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SASHENKA comes here at the top of her game and a reproduction of the form she showed to win at Ludlow last week will make her very hard to beat. Ruby Crown may give her most to do |
Saphire Night now 6/1
A "hard to beat" market leader and a price gapper 1.43 to place a big price for a hard to beat price gapper
315 CARL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Jaunty Flight, 11/2 Minster Abbi, 8/1 Cute N You Know It, 10/1 Back To Bills.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JAUNTY FLIGHT, rated 145 over hurdles and setting a clear standard even on the form she's shown in two starts over fences, should take plenty of beating.[SB] |
1/3 into 1/6 - heavy ground the concern 1.12
325 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bearneen Boy, 5/2 Babe Heffron, 4/1 Anna Panna, 10/1 Narlen, 12/1 King Diamond, 14/1 The Iron Giant, Wishes Or Watches, 20/1 Lord Gunnerslake.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bearneen Boy got the job done when backed at Folkestone last week but he's no good thing to confirm the form with ANNA PANNA, who jumped really well considering it was her first run over fences. Babe Heffron should also be thereabouts if avoiding the dreaded 'bounce' factor on his second run back after an absence.[AWJ] |
King Diamond 8/1
335 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Suntini, 7/2 Oiseau De Nuit, 4/1 Simply Blue, 8/1 Benetwood, 12/1 Abstract Art, Master Mahogany, 33/1 Baby Car.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting race in which lightly raced SUNTINI (nap) is open to further improvement back at this sort of trip and looks the answer, possibly at the main expense of Simply Blue.[FC] |
Baby car 16/1
345 CARL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Mitchel Henry, 4/1 Its A Classic, 6/1 Supreme´s Legacy, 7/1 Manoubi, Super Road Train, 9/1 Carry Duff, 10/1 Mage D´Estruval, 12/1 Ballygalley Bob, Paddy´s Tern, 33/1 Hever Road.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MITCHEL HENRY, who hasn't had many chances in handicap company or at this sort of trip, is taken to follow up last month's course success over Its A Classic. 2008 winner Super Road Train, who is 2-3 over C&D and 1-2 under this rider, is next on the list.[SB] |
PAddys turn 13/2
405 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Quickbeam, 11/10 Sound Accord, 25/1 Cold Mountain, Monzon.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should revolve around QUICKBEAM and Sound Accord. Both have been novicey but Quickbeam is the one going forwards and will be hard to overhaul with a clear round.[FC] |
4 horse race down to 3 adn still a 20/1 outsider 1.13 and 1.17 to place with only Cold Mountain to beat to place
430 LING
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these are particularly convincing on recent evidence. Tacinja and, in particular, Killard Point are of definite interest but preference is for MAGOT DE GRUGY, who ran his best race for a while at Taunton last time and is two from three at Lingfield. [MCu] |
Spirit of Mn 3/1 and Safari 10/1
530 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Aohna, 3/1 Riverboat Gambler, 11/2 Coup D´Oeil, 13/2 Peachey Moment, 15/2 Yes Minister, 9/1 Badster, 11/1 Sir Mark, 20/1 Chaser´s War, Dawn Till Dusk, Stradocaster, 25/1 Suzis Gift, 33/1 Rock Of Dubai, 66/1 Tiny Dynamo.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those that have run, the most interesting of whom are Aohna and Peachey Moment, offer only modest form so the door is ajar for one of the two newcomers to make a big impact. Token preference is for nicely bred COUP D'OEIL, whose stable's two winners this jumps season have been in bumpers, ahead of Gary Moore's Riverboat Gambler. [MCu] |
Rock of Dubai 16/1
ONE A DAY
Soft ground at 2 jumps venues and heavy at Carlisle make the day a difficult one
Checking www.racingpost.com - Wincanton is soft ,heavy in the odd place
Lingfield Chase coursesoft, heavy in places and hurdles course is heavy
Carlisle is heavy
We have seen in the past what heavy can do to apparent sure things!
That said, Jaunty Flight has won on heavy ground, the 1/3 is now 1/6 signifying confidence and the horse has 2 to beat to place, one of which is 20/1
405 WINCANTON must be the other race - 3 involced and an outsider at 20/1 I would go with Quickbeam here.
What a contrast to yesterday's plentiful opportunities! 1.12 for JAunty Flight is not bad for a 1/6 shot in the win market. It would not surprise if heavy scuppered this bet somehow but the horse is proven in the ground and is not an original selection. So there is risk involved with this bet today.
If you wanted to play it a little safer, it would seem Quickbeam only has to put in a clear round and beat a 20/1 shot in the win market to place. This is a far better probability race and at 1.13 is a reasonable bet
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