24/3

Back in business today

210 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Peter Pole, 9/2 Dancer´s Serenade, 15/2 Tarabaloo, 17/2 Paradise Regained, 12/1 Schinken Otto, 33/1 Art Virginia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It wasn't much of a race that PETER POLE won at Exeter last week but he could hardly have been more impressive and a repeat performance here under his 7lb penalty ought to see him follow up with something to spare. He had the race won a long way out at Exeter and today's shorter trip is most unlikely to be a problem. Tarabaloo may be next best, ahead of Dancer's Serenade. [MCu]

I did mention here to watch out for Peter Pole, and he is turned out again, albeit as a strong favourite
A significant 17 length winner last time out, he went in a few people's note books. Dropped in trip today by 4 furlongs and the booking of McCoy means the owners want another victory
1.13 to place and only 2 places alas, but looks a good start

220 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Flying Lady, 4/1 Barcode, Dead Cat Bounce, 5/1 Why Nee Amy, 10/1 Hassadin, 12/1 Herecomesbella, Sweet Virginia, 14/1 Calling Birds, 33/1 Chantilly Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Flying Lady becoming expensive to follow, DEAD CAT BOUNCE looks the one to be with today on his first try in selling company since his encouraging debut for Jamie Osborne back in November.[AC]

A seller, the fav looks strong at 7/4. It's always a confident sign when you look at http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk/ and see the prices for him in red - indicates being backed. BUT this is a poor seller. Market mover is Chantilly Dancer 16/1 and 20/1 generally

230 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Presque Perdre, 7/2 Barashi, 10/1 Just Posh, Trans Sonic, 20/1 Not Talking, 33/1 Mick Flavin, Miss Tarantella, Roman Cruise, Waterdale, 66/1 Blue Dove, Desert Maze, 100/1 Silveretta.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With doubts about this trip for Barashi, this could be a straightforward task for PRESQUE PERDRE, who did remarkably well to finish so close in handicap company after a series of bad mistakes over this trip on quick ground at Newcastle last time. He should be hard to beat if able to brush up his jumping. [RY]

2 under 10/1 in the ebtting forecast , Not talking a non runner. Just Posh is now 5/1 and of interest if remaining 5/1 or under for my market movers (37.5% strike rate with these 5/1and under as you'll read next newsletter) 1.15
Only 4 horses under 20/1 and the fav remains odds on

250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Muraweg, 5/2 Bagber, Carbon Hoofprint, 8/1 Fantastical, 16/1 Sumani, 50/1 Forced Opinion.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: John Gosden made a decent start to the year last week and MURAWEG can continue the good work at the expense of Bagber and Carbon Hoofprint.[AC]

Fav now 4/9 and all rate at the betting site (see earlier comment) .Interestingly Bagber is 7/1 from 5/2 betting forecast - has the betting forecast got it right? If he has 7/1 is the value bet.No market movers but a fav who has not had a run out since June 2008 which is a slight niggle

310 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Proud Andees, 4/1 Lawyer Des Ormeaux, Van Ness, 11/2 Howard Howard, 8/1 The Bandit, The Local, 12/1 Twenty Degrees, 16/1 Gabor, Kausse De Thaix, 40/1 Good Man Again.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It could be worth chancing LAWYER DES ORMEAUX, whose latest fourth off a mark of 115 in an Exeter handicap lasts May reads well in this context. Proud Andees may be next best. [MCu]

Hunter Chase -fav now 15/8 in places and 2nd fav 11/4 in places

320 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Moon Crystal, 5/2 Melt, 7/2 Smokey Rye, 8/1 Tallulah Sunrise, 10/1 Too Grand, 16/1 Little Knickers, 20/1 Poppy Dean, 50/1 She´s Our Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Five of these clashed in a steadily run similar 1m handicap 11 days ago and MELT, who got up to pip Moon Crystal despite that rival getting first run on her, can come out on top again.[AC] Little Knickers now 12/1 in places 330 SEDG BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Beherayn, Professor Higgins, 9/4 Master Nimbus, 14/1 Whatadifference, 33/1 Braddock Island, Lindseyfield Lodge, 66/1 Billsgrey, Fortune´s Fool. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Beherayn faces a much easier task than he did on his first two starts over fences but he still has something to learn in the jumping department and could be worth taking on with main market rivals PROFESSOR HIGGINS and Master Nimbus. Slight preference is for the former, who turned in an improved effort over this trip at Catterick last time and a reproduction of that should ensure he goes close. [RY] One of these races I always like. The straight 8 means 3 the place. Master Nimbus a non runner along with Braddock Island. Master Nimbus's absence surely leaves the front 2 a mile clear of the rest.Indeed in the reformed market What a difference remains at 14/1. Should be a 2 horse race - just need to make sure Betfair pay out on 3 places On the face of it Prof Higgins , who has 3 2nds and a 3rd looks the most likely to place again with a clear round 340 STHL BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sparrow Hills, 9/4 Dais Return, 15/2 Prince Des Marais, 9/1 Flaco, 11/1 Quentin D´Ex, 12/1 Ballybart, 16/1 High Gliding, Val Du Ciron, 20/1 Dip In The Med. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPARROW HILLS (nap) and Dais Return have an edge over the others on hurdles form so far and may well be able to dominate. The form of Sparrow Hills looks a touch stronger, so he is taken to supplement his bumper win here in the autumn. [MCu] I talk about leapfrog bets in the next newsletter. Here Dais Return has leapfrogged Sparrow Hills into favouratism at 6/4 350 LING BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Green Velvet, 4/1 Elusive Dreams, 13/2 Bollin Franny, 7/1 Scholars Lass, 10/1 Easy Wonder, 12/1 Fly In Johnny, 16/1 Bateleur, 20/1 Diminuto, Seductive Witch, 25/1 Scruffy Skip, 33/1 Metropolitan Chief, Pat Will. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GREEN VELVET (nap) is on a roll right now and can defy the penalty in a race in which many can't be fancied. Bollin Franny, Scholars Lass and Easy Wonder can fight it out for the places.[GN] You know the drill by now - price gapper in a 0-55 class 6 handicap - they always run very well and often win, but do place regularly. Live market is interesting. Elusive dreams cuts the price gap to 3/1 with Bataleur a big mover into 5/1 400 SEDG BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Sycho Fred, 5/1 Longdale, 13/2 I´m Your Man, Naval Attache, 10/1 Arctic Ghost, Nicozetto, Physical Force, Pistol Basc, Sands Rising, 14/1 Of Course, 25/1 Malt De Vergy, Spivitus, Sybellius D´Artaix, 66/1 Princess Stephanie. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several to consider but this could go to I'M YOUR MAN (nap), who has yet to run poorly over this C&D and will be suited by the drop in trip after failing to get home over 3m1f last time. His usual cheekpieces are refitted and he's taken to beat Longdale. [RY]

Physical Force and Artic Ghosrt (both 7/1) may be market movers - the latter, though, is 9/1 with some bookies

410 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bring It On Home, 2/1 Valiant Shadow, 17/2 Dan Buoy, 9/1 Badly Bruised, 12/1 Equilibria, Major Catch, 16/1 Esturgeon Du Ranch, Flaming Cheek, 33/1 Peas ´n Beans.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may be between VALIANT SHADOW and Bring It On Home. The fact that the latter is the one runner in good form coming into this counts for a great deal but preference is still for Valiant Shadow, who has 15lb in hand of his rival on these terms according to the handicapper and who just might have been perked up by a change of scenery. [MCu]

Slight Move for Dan Buoy into 4/1

420 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Bajan Tryst, 5/1 Trade Price, 6/1 Lenny Bee, 8/1 Dream Catch Me, 10/1 Fatal Attraction, Vamos, 100/1 By The Wind, Thumberlina.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop to the minimum trip is expected to prove ideal for BAJAN TRYST and he sets a decent standard for the newcomers Lenny Bee, Trade Price and Fatal Attraction to surpass.[AC]

You're going to see a lot of these races as the flat season kicks off. A maiden race with 3 debutants - 2nd - 3rd - 4th in the betting and a price gapper who has 3 placed efforts but has not had a run out since October 2008.
A messy race really - why the price gap? he's not run for 5 months.
How good are the 3 debutants?

430 SEDG

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ten Carat, 4/1 Hasanpour, 5/1 Matmata De Tendron, Michaels Dream, 10/1 Ajay, Classic Act, Karathaena, 12/1 Remainder, 33/1 Borouj.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to be confident about many of these but this trip on quick ground should be ideal for HASANPOUR, who has run well fresh before and is taken to beat course specialist Matmata De Tendron. [RY]

Remainder a market mover into 8/1 in places

440 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Prophete De Guye, 4/1 Oscar Owen, 8/1 Shergill, Well Saved, 9/1 Ticket To Ride, 12/1 Smart Tom, 14/1 Cortesia, Simple Glory, 16/1 Fast Fred, Pure Magic, 20/1 Pressman, The Fabricator, 25/1 Custers Last Stand, Magic Of The Isles, 40/1 Where´s Trigger, 50/1 The Client.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Prophete De Guye is well treated assuming he can translate his recent improvement over fences back to hurdles but the verdict goes to OSCAR OWEN, who scored in a slightly higher grade on his handicap debut at Newbury and may be able to build on that.[SB]

Magic Des Isles and Pressman - both 16/1 and market movers

450 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Prince Charlemagne, 9/2 Bavarica, 8/1 Inquisitress, Kings Topic, 10/1 Sri Kuantan, 20/1 Encore Belle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRINCE CHARLEMAGNE is hard to oppose. Kings Topic could leave his last two efforts behind if things pan out as well from the front as they did in a similarly small field here on his reappearance, but if not either of Bavarica and Inquisitress should follow him home.[GN]

At first glance a price gapper, but then we learn it's a middle distance apprentice handicap. I'm sure Jemma Marshall is a nice lass but she's not George Baker who has won on the fav before.
Encore BElle 16/1 and Sri Kuantan 13/2.
Middle distance races are hard enough for jockeys to get right, let alone apprentices. I like the "hard to oppose" but would prefer a recogniseable jockey on board

500 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Nouveau Maire, 7/2 Smart Cavalier, 6/1 Belem Ranger, 10/1 Jimmys Duky, Jupiter´s Fancy, Oaklands Luis, 14/1 Benwell, Caraman, Stroom Bank, 20/1 High Moor, Willywont He, 33/1 Ben Nelly, River Line, 66/1 Billslegacy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a strong race. NOUVEAU MARIE created a good impression on his first run in a hunter chase when successful over C&D last time and is preferred to Smart Cavalier, who may appreciate the drop back to this trip on better ground. [RY]

Willhewonthe 14/1 in places.
Fav 7/4 in places

510 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Gilded Youth, 9/2 No Supper, 13/2 Latin Scholar, 7/1 Amwell Brave, 8/1 Fujin Dancer, Gainsborough´s Art, 11/1 What´s Up Doc, 12/1 Blast The Past, Weststern, 14/1 King Kasyapa, Nothingbutthetruth, 25/1 Theflyingscottie, Won More Night, 40/1 Hum The Tune.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of interest, the 4yos Fujin Dancer and handicap debutant Latin Scholar, prominent among them. The one to appeal most though is GILDED YOUTH, whose latest improved second to a well-weighted winner off this mark in a C&D handicap last week entitles him to have a big say in this. [MCu]

No supper leapfrogged into 11/4 fav BUT is this the McCoy factor?

SHORTLIST
210 STHL - Peter Pole, IF he replicates last run, will be very hard to beat, and consequently place of course. Right jockey on board, BUT drop in trip by 4 furlongs and only 2 places. Still 1.14 is good.

230 SEDG - Presque Perdre at 1.15 - only 4 under 20/1 which is why this is of interest.

330 SEDG - yes it's still 3 the place and 1.1 for both hot favourites to place - Professor Higgins and Beherayn

ONE A DAY
Must be Peter Pole for me today. I just hope he replicates his 17 length demolition.
Best probability bet of the day is Professor Higgins at 1.1 I think in a 3 the place race where the 3rd fav (closely matched in the live market) was a non runner