Did you notice another multiple handicap winner losing and thus ending a winning sequence of 4! It's a great system for laying these fancies, as I did yesterday
I try to do this an hour before first race because I can then account for market movers proper, and non runners. Bit early today - 1230pm
200 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Nordwind, 11/4 Palmerin, 5/1 Pilgrims Lane, 66/1 Blue Tweed, Ron In Ernest, 100/1 All Fun And Games, Little Rococoa.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Palmerin hails from a stable in fine form but has always been a tricky ride and much will depend on how he relishes the switch to hurdling. NORDWIND is not easy either but, assuming he shows the same enthusiasm as he did at Fakenham, he ought to win again.[JN] |
Fav now 3/10 and it's no surprise, look at the letters in the form column for the majority of the field!
7 length winner LTO
210 TOWCESTER
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Flat-bred Maraafeq must prove his aptitude for fences on his chase debut and it is worth giving DURANTE the benefit of the doubt back in trip after a Warwick disappointment last time. Irish Guard is preferred of the others.[EMW] |
Maraafeq leadpfrogged into fav, but tight head of market. Blue Hills potential mover into 14/1
3 ar 55/1 or bigger - the straight 8 but will Blue Hills play a part and potentially push one of the likely 3 market leaders out of the places?
220 STHL
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although neither JEREMIAH nor True Decision have run on this surface they set a clear standard and can fight out the finish. Preference is for the former, by a sire whose progeny seem at home on Fibresand and who has Neil Callan booked.[AC] |
Only 2 under double figure odds - debutants to the surface
Class 6 maiden
225 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Garleton, 4/1 Cornerback, 9/2 Indy Mood, Its A Classic, 10/1 Chorizo, Easby Mandarin, Toy Gun, 14/1 Beau Saddler, 16/1 Airhill Lady, 33/1 Supremely Gifted, 40/1 Chernik.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few to be interested in, among them Cornerback, Garleton, CHORIZO and Indy Mood. The handicapper may have cause to regret not having given Indy Mood more credit for an apparently improved display last time but Chorizo is also potentially well in and will be expected to leave his recent efforts well behind granted better ground.[FC] |
Supremely gifted 12/1 in places
235 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Amron Hill, Prairie Spirit, 3/1 Beat The System, 6/1 Dashing Romeo, 10/1 Nick´s Choice, 16/1 Pharaon De Touzaine, 20/1 Gallant Hero, 25/1 Monsieur, 33/1 Dawn At Sea, 40/1 Stage Right, 50/1 April Attraction, 66/1 Cartoonist.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two or three of these are quite interesting, especially Prairie Spirit, who will surely go close if much of his old Flat ability is still intact. However, in the hope that he can dominate, AMRON HILL earns the vote. |
Conditional jockeys race. Beat the system leapfrogs into fav. Pharaon 10/1 in places and Dawn at Sea 20/1 in places
245 TOWC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Super Sensation, 9/2 Manly Money, 5/1 Chunky Lad, Doctor Robert, 12/1 Watch Out, 14/1 Anabaa´s Secret, Mickey Pearce, 16/1 Mac Don, Petite Pistolet, 20/1 Ben Bacchus, 25/1 Fortune Point, Ricci De Mare, 40/1 Johns Legacy, Tooka.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Manly Money and Super Sensation warrant respect on paper but the verdict goes to DOCTOR ROBERT, who will find this less competitive than the handicaps he's been contesting and is from a yard that's 2-7 in claiming/selling company in recent seasons.[SB] |
Ben Bacchus 14/1 in places
255 STHL
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest seller in which Swiss Art, Amazing Blue Sky and CAUSE FOR APPLAUSE who filled three of the first four places in a similar C&D event 15 days ago look the main protagonists. Bryan Smart's filly, who would have finished closer if she had not been hampered by the winner, may be able to come out on top today. |
Swiss art evens now
Poor seller now
310 HEREFORD
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Master Wells will be tough to beat if in the same mood as at Exeter last week but this easy course may be just what STARSTRUCK PETER needs to allow him to gain a first success over hurdles. |
Beau Troubadour 12/1 in places
325 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ocean Cowboy, 7/2 Erritt Lake, 9/2 Clarkey, 5/1 Alexander Seaview, 10/1 Dukes Mutiny, Quivvy Bridge, Sir Ejay, 12/1 Coole West Ruby, Gerbera, Red Seven, 14/1 Moonlight Lady, Outback Bob, 20/1 Cayo Levantado, Katie´s Jem, 25/1 Energiser, Ma Arnai, 33/1 Tough As Leather, 50/1 Mythsandlegends,
Erritt Lake 7/4
335 CARLISLE
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pamak D'Airy can do better now back on a right-handed track but CHECKERBOARD is another who didn't do himself justice last time and may have the edge this time. Cash Man should also be in the mix. |
Checkerboard 11/10 in places goes fav in live market
355 TOWC
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Painter Man, 6/1 Theatrical Moment, 7/1 Dance Island, Hello Moscow, 9/1 Hammer Time, 14/1 Coda Agency, Evelith Forrest, Menelaus, Pheidias, 16/1 Caipiroska, Dancing Mist, Hot ´N´ Holy, Paddy´s Tern, 20/1 Macmar, Quiqui De L´Isle, 25/1 Clyffe Hanger, Doctor Kilbride, Snow Patrol.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several interesting contenders here, not least THEATRICAL MOMENT, who did better than he's ever done over this trip at Ascot last time. Hammer Time is an interesting newcomer to handicaps back from a break.[EMW] |
Quiqui De L'isles 12/1 in places ,
400 THURLES
Our Local Scan now 7/2 fav and the reasoning may be the booking of Barry Geraghty
405 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 You Avin A Laugh, 100/30 Dispol Grand, 9/2 Where´s Reiley, 11/2 Taurus Twins, 7/1 Chimbonda, 12/1 Bold Rose, Meydan Style, 25/1 Captain Carey.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight DISPOL GRAND (nap) made a highly encouraging return here last month in a race that is working out well. Arguably that bare form does not do him justice and he is preferred to You Avin A Laugh who has to prove the suitability of this surface.[AC]. |
Bold Rose n/R -capt carey now 12/1
430 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Pterodactyl, 11/4 Ruthenoise, 11/2 Similar Fashion, 13/2 Foresight, 8/1 Benedict Spirit, 14/1 Mansonn Leda, Riddleofthesands, 16/1 Purely By Chance, 25/1 Barathea Blazer, 33/1 Epidaurian King, On Yer Own, Vandenberghe, 66/1 Doonigan.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pterodactyl looks pretty solid and should be right on the premises again but preference is for the less exposed RUTHENOISE (nap), who was rather tilting at windmills behind Mikael D'Haguenet and company at Cheltenham on only her second British start but is evidently held in some regard and should prove capable of better yet. |
Messy market - 2 market leaders 7/4 -both movers and Riddle of sands 7/1 - too many movers really BUT may get involved level stakes the front 2?
440 STHL
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The step up to 2m will suit Supsonic who has less on his plate than when third in 0-85 company here last time, but he has stumbled on a potential Prescott improver in ROUGH SKETCH, who looks all about stamina and whose trainer has an impressive strike-rate here so easing doubts about the new surface. |
At last a potential place only race Original 8 runner race down to 6 runners - still 3 the place on BETFAIR? 2nd and 5th favs now non runners should lessen the competitiveness for fav. Fav now odds on. Outsiders in betting forecast are still in the live market.
What I don't like is this is a 2 miler. BUT the fav only has 3 to beat to place, 2 of which were originally outsiders in the 8 runner field
445 CARL
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Poor fare and question marks against most of the runners. MITCHEL HENRY should go well if on a going day and Jballingall has possibilities at bigger odds.[FC] |
Jballingall 7/1 in places and BEnbeoch 14/1 in palces
520 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Bamby, Cote D´Argent, 9/2 Norminster, 6/1 Oso Magic, 7/1 Lerida, 14/1 Bog Oak, 16/1 Duke Of Malfi, Hollows Mill, 25/1 Rossin Gold, 33/1 Dream On Dreamers, Lofty Leader, Uptown Lad.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cote d'Argent is clearly well handicapped but it will be some effort to see off seasoned campaigners on his chasing debut and he'll be short enough. Norminster and Bamby have solid claims but the latter's trainer has another live chance in OSO MAGIC, who really should have a race like this in him off his current mark |
Lerida possible mover into 9/2 with some bookies. If off at 5/1 SP, then I'm on.
Bog Oak 10/1 , Hollows Mill 8/1 other market movers
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Desert Hawk, 11/2 Dobravany, Noah Jameel, 13/2 Hunt The Bottle, 9/1 Art Value, 10/1 Kirstys Lad, Moyoko, Singora Lady, The Graig, 12/1 John Potts, 16/1 Al Azy, Bespoke Boy, 25/1 Dancing Wizard.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NOAH JAMEEL is better known for his Kempton exploits but he ran well his only start here in December and has plenty going for him again. Hunt The Bottle is preferred of the others.[EMW] |
It's difficult to know how to approach races which are in 6+ hours time, but at time of writing., Noah Jameel is 2/1 in places - quite a mover and not really a reacition to 10/1 Kirsty Lad's absence
720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Khan Tengri, 11/4 Stagecoach Jade, 7/2 Rose Cheval, 8/1 Magnifico, 12/1 Den Maschine, 16/1 Troubletimestwo, 20/1 Rebel Prince, 50/1 Enlist, 66/1 Sugar State, 100/1 Amber Ridge,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rose Cheval was only a neck in front of a 35-rated rival on her reappearance and needs to prove she is worth her official mark. Preference is for KHAN TENGRI (nap) whose juvenile form looks solid enough. Newcomer Stagecoach Jade hails from a top stable in good form and is respected. |
Fav now odds on
820 WOLVES
| Long Handicap: Reprieved 8-4, Jonquille 8-3 |
| |
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Carlton Scroop has solid claims back up in trip under a penalty. The course specialist Little Richard is respected, while a market move for the handicap debutante Romantic Retreat would be interesting. But it may be worth siding with SNOWBERRY HILL who should appreciate the switch back to Polytrack and would have a decent chance if recapturing his best form. [DM] |
Fav now 9/4 in places
850 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Epic Odyssey, 3/1 Blue Tomato, 7/1 Qadar, 15/2 Legal Eagle, 50/1 Kenai.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EPIC ODYSSEY was fairly impressive when dominating a five-runner claimer at Kempton last month and should be able to confirm that form with Blue Tomato on his debut for a new yard. [DM] |
Blue Tomato 7/4 the mover
SHORTLISTERS
200 HEREFORD - Nordwind now 3/10 - hell of a move. Only 2 places though 1.1 to place. No kauto Star this one. The opposition have so many letters in their form figures we could make a
Countdown Conundrum with them. A 3 horse race if the 66/1+ horses can be discounted. Only one therefore to beat. Faces a Nicholls horse in opposition and the original 2nd fav in betting forecast now 7/1 ( over inflated in reaction to Nordwind shortening?)
2 places is not ideal but to reiterate, 4 of the 7 runners are now 66/1 or bigger
440 STHL - 8 runners now down to 6 runners - 3rd and 5th favs non runners - outsiders remain in new field, and if they run as their prices indicate, this should allow Rough sketch to place well.
Still 3 places on Betfair, and 1.19 to place, what I don't like is the 2 miles. Allows for an element of jockey interference for any seeking to land a back or lay gamble. Quite easy to "accidentally" get left in the stalls or "misjudge" pace and fade at the end.
If Rough sketch runs as his odds on status indicates, he has 3 to beat to place, 2 of which were original outsiders.
ONE A DAY
Yes, plenty of market movers today, and top heavy markets, but the above are the only 2 that jumped out. Palmerin the potential fly in the ointment
I'll go in time order today and monitor Nordwind in running at a poor price.
Rough Sketch 1.19 is a much better price for those considering better odds and lower stakes from a target profit per day perspective. Concern with the latter is 2 miles.
Both not rock solid at all
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