I don't know what I was worried about yesterday with all shortlisters placing again - perhaps I'm too cautious. El Dancer scraped through by some 15 lengths I think
125 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Dazzling Begum, 11/2 Valentine Blue, 6/1 Cragganmore Creek, Elliwan, 15/2 Casablanca Minx, 9/1 Spume, 12/1 No Rules, Pick Of The Day, 16/1 Dark Planet, Flame Creek, 20/1 Starcross Maid, 33/1 Bond Casino, 40/1 Adversane,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elliwan is worth bearing in mind with Frederik Tylicki having his first ride since November, but it can pay to give DAZZLING BEGUM a chance to make amends for her below-par display last time.[FC] |
Elliwan has been catapulted into favouratism 13/8
This is an apprentice race and I cannot see any reason for such a big move 1.57 to place
130 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Cousin Vinny, 9/2 Torphichen, 10/1 Go Native, Kempes, 12/1 Micheal Flips, 14/1 Ainama, Medermit, Red Moloney, 16/1 Aachen, Copper Bleu, 25/1 Golan Way, Kangaroo Court, 40/1 Shoreacres, Somersby, 66/1 Leo´s Lucky Star, Shamari, 100/1 Alarazi, Leamington Lad, 150/1 Gloucester, 500/1 Bee Sting, Intensifier.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: His jumping could be more assured and the news of his travelling badly is a late worry but an in-form COUSIN VINNY is a class act and would be very hard to beat if avoiding mishaps. If it has rained significantly overnight, the softer ground will slow them down a bit and it should help his jumping. Plenty of the rest have a lot of potential and are largely unknown quantities but stablemate Kempes may be one of his most serious dangers, along with Torphichen, Red Moloney, Micheal Flips and Copper Bleu.[RA] |
Spotlight has picked up on the rumour. They speak of Cousin Vinny over here as the IRish banker of the Festival, and 3/1 is a massive price is that is correct!!
21 runners, softer ground, extremely competitive.
10 runners under 25/1
Willie Mullins is one of the strongest of the Irish contingent, and Kempes is the apparent 2nd string with Ruby on board.
No price gapper here and it would be interesting to see Cousin Vinny's price, but if this race was anywhere else other than Cheltenham I would ignore it Cousin VInny 1.97 to place and only 3 to place
145 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Pokanoket, 11/4 Elzahann, 3/1 Smarties Party, 5/1 Molly Rodgers, 10/1 Lets Go Girls, 12/1 Go On Be A Lady, 20/1 Stormy Waters, 33/1 Saluscraggie, 100/1 Ashgrove Diamond, Born To Frill, Elevate Jack, Kafamber.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POKANOKET, a half-sister to the stable's good hurdler Issaquah, should benefit from today's longer trip and looks sure to be involved at the finish. Elzahann could be the one she has to beat.[AWJ] |
Smarties PArty has leapfrogged into favouratism 9/4 1.38 to place
220 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Easby Mandarin, 13/8 Quincy Des Pictons, 6/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 25/1 Naval Attache, Scuzme, 33/1 Presenting Edward, 50/1 Cuccinello, Turbulent Flight.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quincy Des Pictons showed enough in France to be of interest at this lowly level but EASBY MANDARIN is the solid option having been performing creditably of late in handicaps and, with his edge in chasing experience, he'll get few better openings to shed his maiden status.[AWJ] |
8 runner race - Naval Attache now 14/1 making it a 4 horse race for place only purposes. 1.14 / 1.27 the front 2 to place
255 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Karmadice, 4/1 March Mate, 6/1 Bob´s Dream, 8/1 Shanahan, 10/1 Pearson Glen, Sendali, 12/1 Habanero, 14/1 Oscar´s Emerald, Trafalgar Man, 16/1 Follow On, 20/1 Bulas Boy, Prioryjo.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A run-of-the-mill handicap and KARMADICE is one of the more interesting options with his potential for improvement. March Mate is feared most.[AWJ] |
Sendali now 11/2, Bulas Boy now 14/1 market movers
A 10/1 winner yesterday and a couple of placers too
305 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Indian Diva, 9/2 Obe Royal, 8/1 Dancing Deano, Mudhish, 12/1 Boss Hog, Cap St Jean, 14/1 Hamaasy, 16/1 Thabaat, 33/1 Ed´s Pride, Only A Game, 50/1 Glan Lady, 100/1 Domada, 200/1 I´m Agenius, Ronnies Girl.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Taking a steep drop in grade and back on a surface on which she has won her only start, INDIAN DIVA is clearly the one to beat. Obe Royal and Dancing Deano can follow her home.[AC] |
CAp St JEan the mover here into 7/1 and a potential price gapper here as well in Indian Diva but this is a seller 1.41 to place
320 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Binocular, 8/1 Celestial Halo, 10/1 Osana, 14/1 Crack Away Jack, Katchit, 16/1 Whiteoak, 20/1 Ashkazar, Sublimity, 25/1 Brave Inca, Punjabi, Sentry Duty, 33/1 Harchibald, Jered, Won In The Dark, 40/1 Muirhead, Snap Tie, 66/1 Ebaziyan, 100/1 Blue Bajan, Hardy Eustace, River Liane, 150/1 Othermix, 500/1 Alph, Cybergenic,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There will be no hiding place for BINOCULAR (nap) as his rivals will be desperate to take the sting out of him but the manner in which he has twice cut down Celestial Halo makes him look the one horse in the line-up with the potential to achieve iconic status as a hurdler and his trainer seems unperturbed about the prospect of the ground softening. Celestial Halo, essentially a stayer and so well served by this track when winning last year's Triumph, is an obvious each-way alternative, while Katchit will scrap away all day round here and Whiteoak, Jered and Sentry Duty all have a squeak at bigger prices.[PJ] |
Huge price gap here - amazing to see Hady Eustace, Brave Inca and Harchibald in the field!1.57 to place is very appealing
400 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 L´Ami, 3/1 Garde Champetre, 7/1 Dix Villez, 10/1 Wonderkid, 12/1 Drombeag, 14/1 A New Story, 16/1 Heads Onthe Ground, 20/1 Pass Me By, 25/1 Puntal, 33/1 Florida Dream, 40/1 Ivoire De Beaulieu, Jaspers Dream, 50/1 Benefit Night, Crystal D´Ainay, Dreux, He´s The Gaffer.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enda Bolger continues to hold a strong grip in the cross-country field and has obvious prospects of winning this race for the fourth time in five runnings with Garde Champetre and L'AMI his main hopes. The latter, who has been very solid at the head of the ante-post market, has got better with each run for his new yard and could still be very well in. Drombeag and A New Story may be best of the others.[FC] |
Only one place to look here - Enda Bolger's charges who both coincidentally head the market, but which to chose for place only purposes.? 1.46 and 1.69 to place the front 2. Nice big prices
440 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Quevega, 4/1 United, 13/2 Chomba Womba, 10/1 Give It Time, Oscar Rebel, 14/1 Carole´s Legacy, 20/1 Dansimar, Gaspara, 25/1 Over Sixty, Sweetheart, 33/1 Amber Brook, Aura About You, Megans Joy, 50/1 Helens Vision, Issaquah, Pagan Starprincess, 100/1 How´s Business, Shenanigan, Wychwoods Legend, 150/1 Gallileo Figaro, 200/1 Purely By Chance.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Chomba Womba was found wanting behind a progressive 5yo in this race last year and, although she's going to be held up a bit longer to help her up the hill, there could be a similar tale to tell this time with the improving and well-regarded QUEVEGA looking set to build on last month's stylish return to action. United is nailed on to be in the shake-up, while Aura About You looks one to consider at big odds.[PJ] |
In interviews over here, Willie Mullins has signaled that Quevega is his idea of his best chance of a winner at the whole festival 1.82 to place for Willie Mullins "best chance" at the Festival
455 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Windy Hills, 5/1 Yann´s, 11/2 Incas, 7/1 Paradise Bay, 8/1 Benny Boy, 10/1 Hasper, 14/1 Emerald Destiny, Jupiter´s Fancy, 16/1 Simply Smashing, 20/1 Nouveau Maire, Witness Run.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This trip looks on the sharp side for a few of these but not INCAS, who won't mind the ground either and gets the vote in the hope that he can get somewhere close to the form he was showng a couple of years ago.[AWJ] |
Witness Run 11/1
505 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Never Lose, 4/1 Aahaygirl, 10/1 Duke Of Urbino, 12/1 Marina Walk, 14/1 Beaux Yeux, 20/1 Dontuwishitwereso, 33/1 Solis, 50/1 Nassau Beach, 100/1 Cool Madam.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth, especially with Aahaygirl having to prove she has trained on, and an obvious opportunity for NEVER LOSE to get off the mark. Although she has yet to run on sand, her trainer has a decent strike-rate on today's surface and all three of his winners here this year were having their first try on Fibresand |
A degree of confidence that Frankie Spencer is booked on the fav whose form looks good (last run excepted - running in class 2 - 1.1 to place
Possible flys in the ointment - Duke of Urbino at 6/1 and Marina walk at 7/1
Solis 14/1 with bet 365 only - do they know something?
Fav a price gapper placed well in this type of maiden and with Frankie up, should be very competitive again -slight niggle - not run since Sept 2008
525 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Southern Waters, 7/2 Just John, 6/1 Gunpoint, 10/1 Grand Zouki, 12/1 Avanos, 14/1 Best Point, 16/1 Threerockmountain, 20/1 Kayaka, Saga De Tercey, 33/1 Blue Dove, Polar Hawk, 50/1 Froggy Lane.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to fancy any of those with experience so this looks best left to SOUTHERN WATERS, the number one hope from a yard with an excellent record in bumpers at this venue (5-18 in recent seasons).[AWJ] |
This is a bumper where market movers can be accurate and expected
SHORTLISTERS
130 CHELTENHAM - Cousin Vinny - we are not going to get 1.97 place only bets very often (at least not 1.97's put up by me!) -the price exposes the competitive nature of the field
320 CHELTENHAM - Binocular - 1.57 to place - only 3 places mind you but another huge price relative to what I'm used to
400 CHELTENHAM - difficult choice between L'ami and Garde Champetre over who I will single out to place. The market says L'ami but I am aware of Nina Carberry on Garde Champetre
440 CHELTENHAM - Quevega - 1.82 for the mare Mullins has put up as his Festival favourite - to be honest I've listened to trainers before and they would make crap tipsters so do with this what you will. If he fancies this horse above Cousin Vinny, then it must have a chance of placing at least!
ELSEWHERE
220 SEDGEFIELD - the fact this is an 8 runner race is the reason it is of interest to me. It is amaiden chase which is the kind of race usually to put at the bottom of the shortlist. 4 horses 25/1 or bigger can hopefully be avoided, leaving 4 contenders for 3 places and Naval Attache an interesting market move from 25/1 into 12/1! As things stand, it is the favourite who would interest me for place only betting.
505 SOUTHWELL - Another maiden race - MArina Walk a late non runner so Never Lose looks even more solid at the head of the market and to place
JUVENTUS V CHELSEA
Under 3.5 goals is a whopping 1.2!
LIVERPOOL V REAL MADRID
1.21 for under 3.5 goals for Liverpool in Europe!
Both games surely would be favouring tight nervous affairs,especially the latter which I see as a great bet. 4 goals would have to be scored in a Liverpool match in Europe when they already have the away goal!! This would actually be my one a day selection today
ONE A DAY
Liverpool v Real Madrid under 3.5 goals at 1.21 looks like my one strong selection of the day. I am still going to do the horse racing, and with live pictures at Cheltenham ,I will get involved in all shortlisters in one way or another
My strongest horse bet today I would see as Never Lose.
Cheltenham by its very nature is highly competitive hence the big place only prices and as I say, I will follow my shortlisters and look to trade
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