Saturday, 28 March 2009

28/3

Again simply a matter of making the right choice yesterday with Tasheba winning and Indefensible unseating rider at the very start of the race.
Just place only today as market movers on a Saturday are not that good

215 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Desert Party, 10/1 Naval Officer, 12/1 Jose Adan, 16/1 Redding Colliery, Regal Ransom, Soy Libriano, 20/1 So Shiny, 25/1 Balcarce Nov, Lelah Dorak, Ra Junior, 66/1 Paso De Gloria, 100/1 I Am The Best, 200/1 Muy Ponderado.

Prior to this race there are a couple of jumps races with 2 standouts at the head of the market. As we've seen in the last few days, these types of races, with 2 real short favs, rarely finish with them both placing so I will leave alone

Here we have Frankie Dettori and Said Bin Suroor on a very short priced hot pot - going purely by the price gap, looks one to shortlist, although being a group 2, the opposition are strong 1.17 quite a decent price

230 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Pistol Flash, 3/1 Earth Mother, 5/1 Moonlight Sapphire, 6/1 Tally Em Up, 7/1 No Stopping Sarah, 8/1 Never A Secret, Pay The Ferryman, 10/1 End Of The Affair, Sinfonietta, 12/1 College Daisy, 14/1 Eventide, Highheelsnhandbags, Polka Dot, 16/1 Bincas Beauty, Hepburn Bell, 20/1 Bravada, Glin View Princess, Loughaderra Dame, Soprani Supreme, 25/1 Friendsofmine, 33/1 Damaconi, Josie James, Maolisa, 50/1 Ballynafagh Lady, Finn Og, Gans Pride, Run For Fun, Tulipa Negra, What´s Up Bett, Zaffy Pidgeon.

Flagged up last time under Ruby, Earth Mother has come 2nd 4 times, BUT as with Indefensible yesterday, a 30 runner field may allow for some unavoidable collisions and hampering which can't be foreseen. 1.27 in an illiquid market

250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Eradicate, 100/30 Enfant De Lune, 15/2 Stage Acclaim, 17/2 Valento, 10/1 Zarrafakt, 12/1 Coin Of The Realm, Super Directa, 20/1 Costa Courta, Dr Brass, 33/1 Sotik Star, 40/1 Katalak, Tewkesbury, 50/1 Tecktal, 66/1 Basis Point, 100/1 Our George.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ERADICATE was turned over at 1-3 last time but even that form makes this formerly useful Flat-racer a leading player and, if back to the level shown winning well on his hurdles debut at Taunton in January, he will be tough to beat. Enfant de Lune and Stage Acclaim look his most dangerous rivals. [MCu]


Place only selection last time, again under Barry Geraghty 1.26 to place

300 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Cape Express, 7/1 Whitcombe Minister, 10/1 Stand Guard, 12/1 Swiss Act, 14/1 Brouhaha, Greylami, Opera Prince, 16/1 Albaqaa, Grand Passion, King Olav, Robby Bobby, 20/1 Bazergan, Big Robert, Sweet Lightning, 33/1 Baylini, 50/1 Tamimi´s History.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cape Express will be popular as he bids to emulate stablemate Philatelist 12 months ago and he remains open to plenty of improvement after just three starts. Whitcombe Minister looks well handicapped still and were it not for an awkward draw he would make lots of appeal, but the vote goes to SWEET LIGHTNING, who looks well treated on the pick of last season's efforts and should appreciate a strong pace at this trip.[PSm]


Price gapper looks solid in the live market but 16 runners and middle distance means he could get trapped in, misjudge the pace etc 1.37 to place

345 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Predateur, 7/4 Sandhurst, 11/2 Personal Column, 12/1 Ortega, 50/1 Smiling Applause,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be a fabulous opportunity for Predateur but he gives off too many off-putting signals for any great confidence in him converting. With Personal Column out of sorts of late, this may therefore be destined for SANDHURST despite doubts over the suitability of this shorter trip.[RA]

Interesting. Only 3 remains - the 2 favs and Ortega. So, they both only need to beat original 12/1 shot Ortega to place! 1.11 and 1.24

400 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lodge Lane, 11/4 Fair Point, 9/2 Backbord, 11/2 Quickbeam, 7/1 Russian Around, 12/1 King Jack, 40/1 Coffee Morning, 50/1 Knockarron.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A peak-form Lodge Lane would have strong claims but he comes with definite risks attached after his two latest efforts and he is now tried in first-time blinkers. Preference is for FAIR POINT, who might well have found a big field upped to 4m round Cheltenham too much last time but whose earlier two efforts over fences established him as a decent novice. [MCu]


The straight 8, 2 clear outsiders and Fair Point leapfrogged into favouriatism 1.34 to place fair point

SHORTLIST
To include the footy today which should be reliable given it's internationals and NOT friendlys
Argentina v Venezuala 1.19 late this evening
Germany are 1.02 to beat Liechtenstein and the arrival of the Correct score 2 market on Betfair signals the expectation of Germany scoring more than 4 goals
Germany to win both halves is 1.15. Half time full time is a massive 1.13 (considering it's 1.01 to back Germany in the match odds market)
Over 2.5 goals is 1.15
England are 1.29 to beat Slovakia
Speaking as someone living in IReland, I expect tonight's clash to beat as tight as a gnat's chuff, to quote Viz. The Republic are without Duff who has been great for them, and may find goal scoring dificult tonight

215 NAD A L SHEEBA
Desert Party ,at 1.17, looks primed under Frankie. BUT this is a highly competitive race and the horse is up in trip, albeit by one mile, BUT very short odds horses in group 2's with big price gaps rarely run out of the places

345 UTTOXETER - 3 horse race - 2 market leaders and an originally 12/1 outsider remain. Still 2 places - Predateur - the fav at 1.11 and Sandhurst 1.24

ONE A DAY
As this is purely about ONE A DAY betting ,regardless of the arena, 1.13 for Germany to win at halftime/fulltime is irresistible - 1.01 in the win market - the Correct score 2 market is up - goals are expected. One goal before half time to no reply and the bet is in.

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