A red letter day for the market movers has me scratching my head. Suddenly, Spin n Span wins 8/1, Cote Dargent wins 7/1, Dispol Diva wins 7/2, Quarl Ego wins 4/1, This ones for Eddy wins 4/1 with Ballycroy Boy 2nd at 13/2 in the same race .
This can't be coincidence surely? How can we make use of these taking into account the fact that other days the market movers run like stinkers?
PRICE GAPPERS
210 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Michel Le Bon, 9/2 All About Trigger, 6/1 Kilvergan Boy, 8/1 Run For Moor, 25/1 The Wedding Horse, 66/1 Coffee Morning.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All About Trigger put up a striking show last time but that was back at the start of November. MICHEL LE BON has better form, was seen out only three weeks ago and left little doubt on that occasion that a crack at this sort of trip was in order.[RA] |
Ruby takes a trip across the water for Mr Nicholls on board the market leader. 2 at 25/1 or bigger make his job easier. 1.14 to place
220 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gilsland, 9/4 Dove Hill, 6/1 On Spec, Sirkeel, 7/1 Stormin Exit, 8/1 Big Burrows, 33/1 Prioryjo, 50/1 Tantobie, 66/1 Bad Lashes, 100/1 Angus´s Antics, 150/1 Rich Girl, 200/1 Dukesfield.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Promising Irish point winner Dove Hill won't have to be out of the top drawer to win this and could be the answer if the market makes the right noises, but GILSLAND has just about the best form as things stand and, given he's a half-brother to an Irish National winner, it's reasonable to expect improvement from him for this step up in distance.[PJ] |
2nd fav a non runner should make life easier for Gilsland? Big Burrows now 10/3 the main recipient of the non runner 1.44 to place
240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fiftyonefiftyone, 7/4 Fistral Beach, 7/1 Mr Gardner, 10/1 Penharold, Shaking Hands, 14/1 Alaghiraar, 16/1 Buffalo Stampede, 50/1 Allonby Bay, 100/1 One And All.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fistral Beach did not see out his handicap debut last time over 2m6f on testing ground and may well be seen to better effect today, but FIFTYONEFIFTYONE shaped well enough over C&D three weeks ago to suggest that the Nicholls horse will again have to settle for minor honours.[RA] |
2 price gappers in the one race - but which to chose? The first 3 in the betting have Barry Geraghty, Ruby Walsh and AP McCoy so we cannot discount or favour by jockey!
These are the only 3 under 20/1 1.26 fro the front 2 to place
The fav's form ties in with Michel Le Bon who runs earlier. A good run from him will add some positivity to 5151 as the selection
305 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Northern Empire, 9/4 Russian Symphony, 6/1 Gold Rock, 33/1 Fly In Johnny.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks between Northern Empire and RUSSIAN SYMPHONY. While the latter's long losing run is a worry, he may be less inconveninced by a potentially muddling race over this trip than Kevin Ryan's sprinter and he gets the nod for that reason.[RY] |
Significant move for fav into 1/2 - one clear outsider all adds up to a good probabvility race with Gold Rock the fly in the ointment 1.11 to place
420 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Hotel Hilamar, 4/1 Spring The Que, 5/1 Prince Erik, 7/1 Decoy Daddy, 10/1 Strylea, 12/1 Orge D´Ete, 14/1 Doc Reason, 16/1 Charming Hills, 20/1 Shan´t Complain, 50/1 Blayney James, 66/1 Battlehill, 100/1 Carrickshock.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This look a good opportunity for HOTEL HILAMAR, who looks more than good enough to win a beginners chase. He was good enough to split Made In Taipan and Northern Alliance in a Grade 2 novice chase over this trip at Navan last month, but wasn't as effective when upped in trip here last month when third to Benalma and Captain Conflict. Back at this trip he looks the one to beat.\n |
Price gapper here whose form ties in with Captain Conflict who would have won very easily yesterday were it not for jockey error which eventually proved fatal for the Capt. This should strengthen confidence in this price gapper? 1.26 to place
425 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dante´s Storm, 4/1 Herecomestanley, 5/1 Merchants Friend, 7/1 Kaldouas, 8/1 Hautclan, 16/1 Give It Holly, Lindsay, 20/1 Brer Bear, 40/1 Caislean Na Deirge.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DANTE'S STORM is the only one going forward and gets the vote despite the apparent better form claims of the former handicappers, of whom the most dangerous today may be Herecomestanley.[RA] |
Now odds on in this hunter chase. A consistent winner , but note Spotlight's comments 1.26 to place
510 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Thumbs Up, 4/1 Best Lover, First Stream, 5/1 Legion D´Honneur, 11/2 Casual Affair, 7/1 Buchanty Spout, 16/1 Arctic Rock, 20/1 Go On Be A Lady, 66/1 Arch, Tommy Tobougg, 100/1 Copper´s Gold, 150/1 Beverley Beck, Shambery, Yarrow Valley, 200/1 Hathamore, Whatevertheweather.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THUMBS UP is the form choice if his debut running against last week's Fred Winter runner-up Ski Sunday is taken at face value and hopefully he'll settle better and the ground won't dry up too much for him. First Stream possessed greater Flat ability than the selection and could be a threat if his hurdling debut tumble hasn't knocked his confidence, while Best Lover is better than he showed last time and Legion D'Honneur is open to plenty of improvement after last week's hurdling bow.[PJ] |
Only 5 under 25/1 with the fav now 5/4 in places. Can we just concentrate on these 5? 1.33 to place - all others are over evens
750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Laurel Creek, 11/2 Mission Control, 7/1 Merrion Tiger, 8/1 Miss Serena, Mr Aitch, 9/1 Zuwaar, 10/1 Phoenix Flight, River Ardeche, 16/1 Monaadi, 33/1 Fort Churchill.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This promises to develop into a thorough test of stamina and that could find a couple of them out. There are no such worries with regards to LAUREL CREEK (nap), however, and he could still prove to be well handicapped despite his latest hike in the weights, so well did he win last time. Mr Aitch and Miss Serena should make a good fist of the places.[GN] |
PRice gapper shortened in the live market - 2 miles on the flat not the ideal race type for me. 1.36 to place
POTENTIAL MARKET MOVERS
Superb performance yesterday with all prices, ie not just sub 5/1
200 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sills Vincero, 9/2 Iachimo, 7/1 Ruby Tallulah, You Avin A Laugh, 10/1 Brown Lentic, Chimbonda, Cindy Incidentally, Rapanui Belle, 12/1 Perfect Honour, 14/1 Miss Thippawan.
You avin a laugh at 5/2 in places
Brown Lentic 5/1 in places
230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Keep Ringing, Simplification, 4/1 Queen Martha, 5/1 Deraaya, 6/1 Kaabari, 10/1 Lady Micklegate, 14/1 Thefillyfromepsom, 33/1 Cross Reef.
Queen MArtha leapfrogged into fav at 7/4
250 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Razor Royale, 7/2 Sa Suffit, 9/2 Chief Dan George, 15/2 Role On, 10/1 Camden George, 12/1 Mill Side, Reel Charmer, 14/1 Doc Row, 200/1 Waterski.
Camden 6/1 in places
315 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Oh Braga, 3/1 Very Cool, 9/2 Picts Hill, 13/2 Hill Forts Timmy, 7/1 Treasury Counsel, 9/1 Apollo Creed, 14/1 Fantastic Arts.
Fav hardened to 7/4 and Fantastic Arts now 10/1
350 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Massini Moon, 5/1 Monn Royal, 11/2 Burnswood, 6/1 Apocal, Darstardly Dick, Speedy Directa, 8/1 Arturo Uno, 10/1 Pourdel, 16/1 Tenor De Balme, 40/1 Midnight Spirit, 100/1 Katie Kingfisher.
Pourdel 6/1 in places and Tenor a tentative 12/1 with some bookies but remains 16/1 with others
420 NEWB
Brer Bear 16/1 - 14/1 and 12/1 with some bookies (1130am)
500 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Indian Blood, 4/1 Secret Tune, 6/1 Olympian, 13/2 Red Admiral, 8/1 Wingman, 11/1 Polyfast, 14/1 Light Yield, 16/1 Cnoc Moy, 20/1 Chivalry, Serhaaphim.
Light Yield 9/1 in places
520 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Green Velvet, 9/2 Ishibee, 5/1 Admirals Way, 6/1 Meikle Barfil, 7/1 Affirmatively, 10/1 Titus Gent, 14/1 Magic Glade, 20/1 Head To Head, Rightcar Lewis, 33/1 Bahamarama.
Head to Head 7/1 in places
550 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Nawaaff, 4/1 Babel, 5/1 Rann Na Cille, Triskaidekaphobia, 8/1 Sir Loin, 10/1 Sofinella, 12/1 North South Divide, One Way Ticket, 16/1 Stoneacre Pat, 20/1 Mujma.
One way ticket 7/1 Mujam 12/1
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Formidable Guest, 4/1 Snow Dancer, 9/2 Quick Off The Mark, 11/2 Ridgeway Jazz, 8/1 Garra Molly, Giddywell, 10/1 Keisha Kayleigh, 12/1 Amber Moon, 33/1 Millagros.
Giddywell 4/1 in places
720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 King Of Legend, 9/2 Waldorf, 11/2 Ergo, 7/1 Alfredtheordinary, 8/1 Sixth Zak, 12/1 Ike Quebec, Rigat, 16/1 Al Azy, Ardent Prince, Maybe I Wont, My Mate Mal, 25/1 Stark Contrast, Whaston.
Stark contrast 11/1 in places
820 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Private Passion, 5/1 Villaruz, 11/2 Dalepak Flyer, Josiah Bartlett, 8/1 Hint Of Honey, Praise Of Folly, 9/1 Order Order, 12/1 Salgrev, 14/1 Location, 16/1 Weet In Nerja, 20/1 Jaq´s Sister, 25/1 Key To Love.
Jaqs sister 14/1
850 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Bahamian Lad, 7/2 Incomparable, 11/2 Silvanus, 8/1 Princess Valerina, 9/1 Came Back, 12/1 Northern Dare, Soopacal, 14/1 Luscivious, Thoughtsofstardom, 16/1 Rothesay Dancer, 20/1 Bookiesindex Boy, Kelamon.
Kelamon 10/1 Soopacal 8/1
Would be interesting to see how these market movers perform.
Dundalk sees the start(ish) of the Irish Flat season and I'll be experimenting with backing jockeys Wayne Lordan, Pat Smullen, and Jonny Murtagh on preferably each way horses ( 4/1 , even down to 10/3 and bigger) as well as trainers Dermot Weld, Aiden O'Brien and David Wachman.
630 - Fly by Magic and Patricks well
700 - Ma Ani , Delek
730 - Signal Fire ( but 11/8) , Imco Spirit , High Magic
800 - Deal Clincher , The ride aint free
830 - Hujaylea , Countes Petrushka , Mad Existence
900 - Green Tabasco, Bobs Pride, Cochlear
925 - Street legal and Ransomed Bride both 2/1 favs
SHORTLISTERS
210 NEWBURY - sees Michel Le Bon battered in to 1/3 favouratism. The question remains now after Cheltenham "is this the Ruby factor?" Are all Walsh/Nicholls charges going to be priced unnaturally short? 1.14 is certainly enticing given there are 3 runners at 16/1 or bigger. Step up in trip today on good ground.
240 NEWBURY - Superb jockeys on the first 3 in the market. 5151 and Fistral Beach are the clear favourites here with Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty good jocks to have on your side.
1.26 the pair but who to chose? As mentioned before in these types of markets, rarely do we get a 1-2-3 finish with the 1-2-3 in the betting market. 5151 was 40/1 last time out - was this run an anomoly or a true reflection of potential? That's the niggle.
A 9 runner race ( 3 places) outsider at 200/1, one at 50/1 and one at 25/1 should reduce the potential rivals to 6 vying for those 3 places. A 50/50 chance then for the remainder to fill the first 3 places
5151 as a choice will be swayed by Michel Le Bon's run earlier as he beat Michel last time out. Fistral BEach - not encouraging the fact he was a beaten fav (3rd of 7 and hence unplaced) last time out but has shown consistent placed form
On the assumption that Michel Le Bon performs earlier in the card, 5151 could be the place only choice here
305 LING - A 4 horse race (2 places) and a 50/1 outsider should leave 3 for 2 places. Gold Rock now 7/1 and Northern Empire clear at the head of the market at 1/2 1.11 to place is reasonable given he has only one to beat to place. This is a claimer though so not the ideal race type, but from a probability perspective, a reasonable bet
ONE A DAY
305 LING - Northern Empire for me today as a purely probability race, but I will be getting involved in earlier races as there are some great dutching opportunities. Michel Le Bon is obvious and hopefully the 1/3 and heavy backing is indicative of the horse's chances and not a reaction to the jockey riding. I will seek to trade this one in the place market and hope to green out earlier . Hopefully I'll get my target before the 305 LING -it's just this race is a claimer and very poor.
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