This is a 7 runner race for 2 places and there are 4 horses only under 20/1. This looks to concern, primarily, Beethoven and Gito Hernando.
Elsewhere, Admira Wacker just keep spanking Hartberg, and I mean spanking. These are no tight victories. Austrian Division 2 is a concern as I am no expert, as is the fact this is not in running ( so I cannot trade or manage my position)
I am going to risk Admira Wacker, realising the above 2 niggles. If you want to wait until 830 Dundalk, I am hopeful there that Fallon's sole run will at least place.
530pm - Hartberg v Admira Wacker - back Admira Wacker in the match odds at 1.4 www.bet365 offers a liquid 1.4
I hope I do not rue the fact this is not in running
Palermo did it eventually. I'll take 1-0 all the time. Must have been a weakened Palermo side.
2pm - Czech Republic U19 v FYR Macedonia U19 - 1.3 home. LDWDLW last 6 for Czech's is a mixed bag. Games characterised by goals - 3,2,4,6,2,5.
WDLLLDW for Macedonia again recently characterised by goals. 5,2,4,3,6,6 in total in their last 6 matches.
Goals could be a safer option here.1.4 over 2.5 goals tells you all you need to know!!!
5pm - Metalurg Z v Dnipro - 1.52 away - Ukrainian Division 1. 2010 and 2009 LEAGUE head to heads are 3 wins to Dnipro.
LWLLLLLDLLDL for Metalurg. - Poor form.
WLLLLD at home - win is the last match at home 1-0 win.
DLWLDDLLWWW for Dnipro hardly screams out to back them.
530pm - Hartberg v Admira Wacker - 1.4 away - Austrian 2nd Division - 5-1, 4-2, 4-0 , 3-0, 1-0 ( to Hartberg) in head to heads signal clear bias towards Wacker.
WWDWWW for Admira in the league in their last 6 ( latest first)
DLLLLW for Hartberg in the League.
This looks a good bet for Admira if we can trust Austrian Division 2 - and remember I am no Austrian Division 2 expert.
7pm - Den Bosch v Emmen - 1.55 home
6,5,7,4,3,4 total goals in Den Bosch's last 6 matches
2,4,4,4,2,5 total goals in Emmen's last 6 matches.
Last head to head was 4-4
Goals anyone? But caution as previous to that 4-4, head to heads were 0-0 and 1-0 in 2009.
7pm - Helmond Sport v Almere - 1.43 home - they used to be called Omniworld but since changing to Almere they are finding life difficult . A draw last time out, but prior to that , it was LLLLLLW - win came on first game of season.
DDWDLWWW - Helmond have only lost 1 to Go Ahead eagles.
7pm - Wisla Krakow v Slask Wroclaw - 1.46 home - Wisla's last few matches have seen 2 draws and 4 games won by a single goal. Too close for me to wade in.
745pm - Bohemians v Bray - 1.29 home - Irish league comes with usual wealth warnings.
3-0 ( cup 17/9/10) , 2-0, 3-0, 2-0 for Bohs - comprehensive wins in head to heads in 2010 and 2009.
DWLDWWWLLWLL for Bray - no pushovers but they seem to find Bohs a step too far.
In running and +1.5 asian handicap.
745pm - Vitesse v Willem II - 1.4 home - 7 losses and a draw for Willem II in their last 8 matches the reason why Vitesse are warm favourites with home advantage.
WDLLLL for Vitesse - a case of backing the team against a team with slightly worse form?
Goals perhaps? 1.19 over 1.5 goals and in running.
THAILAND OPEN
1pm - Nadal v Kukushkin - 1.03 but again 2-0 sets may be worth investigating for Nadal - 1.16 now - managed it with ease yesterday.
210 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Totoman, 4/1 Liberty Seeker, 6/1 Hawksbury Heights, Holiday Cocktail, 7/1 Yossi, 10/1 Inner Voice, Not Til Monday, 20/1 Maree Prince, 25/1 Media Stars, 50/1 Bulas Boy, Devilfishpoker Com, Its Bobkat.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TOTOMAN, the highest-rated of these and with winning form on soft ground, is the most likely winner. 2nd fav a non runner. Only 6 runners under 20/1. A selling hurdle though and nemisis McCoy on Totoman ( whenever he's been one a day, he fails) 240 HEXHAM BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Cape Tribulation, 5/1 Ballyvesey, Magical Legend, 10/1 Risk Runner, 14/1 Flying Doctor, 16/1 Luso´s Lad, 20/1 Call Me Mulligan, 100/1 Dougall.
Ahh, a novice chase - they don't make it easy !! Cape tribulation ran over hurdles in class 1 company - this is class 3. 305 NEWMARKET BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dream Ahead, 3/1 Strong Suit, Temple Meads, 10/1 Approve, 12/1 Irish Field, 16/1 Samuel Morse, 20/1 Al Aasifh, 100/1 Foghorn Leghorn.
How soft is the soft ground at Newmarket today? At any rate, this Dream ahead is like Harris Tweed yesterday ( who won) - strong market fancy, all red ( signalling support through the morning) and 5/4 ( 11/10 in places) There are only 3 horses under 12/1 here and this is an 8 runner race for 3 places. Question of course over soft ground. |
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Honoured, 6/1 Lovely Eyes, 8/1 Voysey, 10/1 Dongola, 12/1 Beat Route, Larkrise Star, Nom De La Rosa, Oak Leaves, 25/1 Half Sister, 100/1 Hannah Hawk,
| DIOMED VERDICT: HONOURED was a good second at Brighton last time and although he has to prove his stamina for this trip, he looks the safest option by some way |
Price gapper but, guess what?, another maiden. This maiden has run 2 handicaps where he has come 2nd ( one was a head 2nd). This is a class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper and they are generally reliable for placing.
10 furlongs up to 12 furlongs today.
830 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Gitano Hernando, 9/4 Beethoven, 5/1 Dansant, 6/1 Wade Giles, 16/1 Northgate, 20/1 Swing Pattern, 25/1 Mid Mon Lady.
Fallon in IReland? A hint on its own? His only ride of the night at the Irish all weather venue. Should involve 4 horses for 2 places.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Czech Republic U19 v FYR Macedonia U19 - 1.3 home - these not-in-running matches can be exasperating if only 2 goals have been scored and the clock ticks.
1.4 for over 2.5 goals is very enticing given these 2 teams' propensity for goal laden matches.
530pm - Hartberg v Admira Wacker - 1.4 away - another match that is not in running, but the singular dominance of Admira over Hartberg in head to heads ( and we are talking 5-1, 4-2, 4-0, 3-0 in their last 4 head to heads) , the 5 wins and a draw for Admira as against the draw, 4 losses and win for Hartberg simply points to a back of Admira based on the form and research.
Note of caution - my personal knowledge of Austrian Division 2 is rather limited.
7pm - Helmond Sport v Almere - 1.43 home - Almere look out of their depth here and should find it difficult in another away match. Again, not in running.
THAILAND OPEN
1pm - Nadal v Kukushkin - 1.03 but again 2-0 sets may be worth investigating for Nadal - 1.16 now - managed it with ease yesterday. Up from 1.1 yesterday where his opponent battled in the 2nd set, can we rely on world Number 1 to do the business today and win by 2 sets to 0? Eminently tradeable if Nadal wins the first set.
240 HEXHAM - Cape Tribulation is odds on here for Chase Debut. A solid hurdles horse, this is a differrent ball game and it is all about betting on " potential" rather than proven chase form.
Interesting alternative in BAllyvessey perhaps who already has 3 2nd places over chase fences?
1.28 Cape and 1.59 Ballyvessey.
8 runners and 3 places - quite simply a clear round from the Cape and he should place at least.
305 NEWMARKET - just as Harris Tweed stood out in the betting market yesterday, so does Dream Ahead in this Group 1
5/4 and 11/10 in places and 2 breathing down his neck at 7/2 ( only 3 under 12/1, only 5 under 25/1)
Winner on good and good to soft but not on soft. 1.25 to place.
Dare we trust soft ground and Dream Ahead's ability to handle it? He is the only horse shortening in this 8 runner field.
830 DUNDALK - Keiren Fallon comes over on a Friday night for one ride only on Gito Fernando. Surely this is a tip in itself?
Importantly Gito Hernando has raced on the all weather surface.
Beethoven breathing down his neck for Aiden O'Brien and should put it up to the favourite.
7 runners means 2 places only, and this is a 4 horse race for 2 places . Surely Fallon has not come over to Dundalk for one run just for the hell of it.
This applies to Dream Ahead and Gito Hernando - I hope you have seen ample proof that all horses are contenders in these group races -on their day they could surprise.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
2pm - Czech Republic U19 v FYR Macedonia U19 - 1.3 home - 1.4 over 2.5 goals. Probably will not be a one a day as it is not in running. I would prefer to trade that 2.5 goals rather than straight bet and hope for 3 goals .
530pm - Hartberg v Admira Wacker - 1.4 away - what am I missing here? ( apart from this match being in running) Admira look wholly dominant over this opposition in recent history.
240 HEXHAM - 8 runners and 3 places makes this interesting. Cape tribulation is quite simply a bet based on potential and not proven chase form. Place your bet only in the knowledge that Cape might make mistakes over these larger obstacles. A risky bet.
830 DUNDALK - Gito Hernando is Keiren Fallon's only ride at Dundalk and I see this as a tip in itself. Market needs looking at nearer the off.
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