back-lay-trade-horses-football: 25/10

Best horse bet for me today would be 455 Leopardstown and Famous Name to place. But I think the safest bet ( well the one more likely to come in), involves Porto this evening.

*****ONE A DAY - 815pm - Porto v Leiria - Back Porto in the win only market at 1.18.*****

Enhance odds with over 2.5 goals bet to trade given home scorelines this season and head to heads.

Wales also should be Borat's Boys this afternoon, and FAmous Name should be very competitive at Leopardstown.

Good win for AZ.

Good to look at the football still as we have horses returning from lengthy layoffs, a number of novice hurdle events ( L plates on) and hurdlers starting chasing for the first time ( ask Celestial Halo why these are difficult races to weigh up)

130pm - Hungary U19 v Moldova U19 - 1.44 home - 3 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses for Moldova in their last 12 matches. Interestingly in 2009 beat Poland 1-0 which is standout.Other wins cam against LUxembourg ( expected?) and Belarus, where 2 days later they lost 3-1 to the same team!
LWLWLDWD in Hungary's last 8 matches. Inconsistent or just playing better sides? Last 4 losses have all been 1 goal margins and against the likes of Portugal, Russia and latest Israel who only went down 1-0 to Spain.
Clearly those who defeat Hungary are better than Moldova.
5pm - Wales U19 v Kazakhstan U19 - 1.25 home - 2007 head to head 2-1 win for Borat's Boys at home. I mentioned the Kazaks against Turkey who won 5-1. That was a strong bet, if you'll remember.
AS mentioned before, a sole win against Andorra 2-1 ( when Andorra scored first!) is hardly compelling for the Kazaks.
WDW last 3 for Wales includes 3-3 against said Turks (albeit 2 93rd and 95th minute goals for Wales)
Lots of collateral form where teams spank the Kazaks and lose to Wales. Should be a home win.
6pm - Brann v Kongsvinger - 1.41 home - Norwegian top flight. Brann have only won 3 of their last 12. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and this looks a case of the best of a bad bunch here , as Kongs have only won 1 of their last 12 and lost 3 of their last 4. A game to avoid I suspect.
630pm - Steaua Bucharest v Pandurii - 1.34 home - 3 1-0's, 2 0-0's and a sole 2-0 in last 6 head to heads mirrors Shaktar's recent head to heads when similarly priced and ended up 1-0.
Could Pandurii just be a bogey team?
Last league win for Steaua was 12 matches ago. They seem to have been affected by Europa League. This seems a match wherer the 1.34 is layable as the upside is infinite and the downside de minimis.
815pm - Porto v Leiria - 1.18 home - one of the most in form teams in Europe currently must surely be backed while in such rude health?
Won 11 and drawn 1 of their last 12 in all competitions includes the Europa league. Leira have an interesting list of away scorelines - 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss and 0-0 so far. BUT they have not played Braga, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica or, of course, Porto so we cannot offer these tight away scorelines as a projection of what might happen tonight.
12/12 at home for Porto.
3,3,2 scored so far at home for Porto, and like Chelsea they have yet to concede. Leira are yet to score away from home so the inference is that if Porto score first, they should win.
1.18 indicates this is likely to mirror their other scorelines at home, 2-0, or 3-0.

Now, we must remember sequences always end. A huge winning sequence at home for Porto will end at some time. It must. They simply will not keep winning at home. But today? at 1.18? Against a team yet to score away? I think we might be safe for another day.
4 and 3 goals scored by Porto in 2010 head to heads backs up the odds. Looks a good one a day.

Heavy ground at Leicester today should be avoided unless it throws up a probability race.

220 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Top Care, 7/4 Suddenly Susan, 4/1 Little Miss Take, 12/1 Munro´s Dragon, 20/1 Warrant, 25/1 X Rated, 33/1 Devon Delight, Pinotage, Voovoo.

DIOMED VERDICT: The surface is an unknown quantity for all of these, and there are also question marks about the stamina of TOP CARE. However, his form is better than that of fillies Little Miss Take and Suddenly Susan, and his stable has always done well with its juveniles here.

FAnning/Johnston favs always interest me but this is a 2 year old nursery seeing 2 year olds on the unique Southwell surface for the first time.

225 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dubai Prince, 4/1 Warning Flag, 7/1 Park Avenue, 10/1 Ruling, 14/1 Oor Jock, Petronius Maximus, 20/1 Obligada, 50/1 Catalpa Sail.

Effectively Weld (3 horses) v O'Brien ( 3 horses) , and intriguingly, J Murtagh, O'Brien number 1, is riding for Wachman on Warning Flag.
An intriguing race!.
From a betting perspective, only 3 under 14/1 here should be the ones to focus on for the places , that is, Dubai Prince ( 1/2 in places), Warning flag (Murtagh onboard) and Ruling (slight move for Aiden O'Brien and Jamie Heffernan.
This is one of those races where an O'Brien big priced horse might surprise?

1.16 for Dubai Price to place
240 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Zain Shamardal, 9/2 Splash Point, 5/1 Jaridh, 6/1 Laajooj, 8/1 Dysios, 9/1 Deny, 10/1 Sultah, 14/1 Failasoof, 16/1 Ebtihaj, 20/1 Distinguish, 25/1 Archelao, Rockerfellow.

DIOMED VERDICT: Zain Shamardal has claims if back near debut form but SPLASH POINT is narrowly preferred to another Godolphin runner Jaridh.

Market mover in Laajooj, a debutant into all red 5/4. Obviously fancied on debut - take it or leave it as we have no form to work with.

300 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Peligroso, 5/1 Via Galilei, 15/2 Dakiyah, 20/1 Nodforms Violet.

DIOMED VERDICT: PELIGROSO sets a clear standard and should be able to provide his yard with a third success in this race in the last four years

Heavy ground and a Godolphin short priced favourite who has never run on heavy ground.

305 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Apt Manor, 4/1 Revelling, 6/1 Style Of Campile, 10/1 Newmarket Story, Strike An Ark, 12/1 Frutti Tutti, Three Monkeys, 16/1 Elles Bessy, Thats Our Luck, 20/1 Golden What, Notdisbutdat, Whatdouthink, 33/1 Andrea´s Answer, Gilheany, Home By The Brook, Labasheeda.

Bank holiday in Ireland hence races at Galway. You will remember Apt Manor mentioned last 3 times he has run. In this maiden hurdle, Ruby is onboard again and he is a strong market leader.

2212 in bumpers and 2nd in sole maiden hurdle race augurs well for today ( 2nd of 20 that time and another big field this time)

410 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Willow Dancer, 9/2 Duplicity, 5/1 Edgewater, 6/1 Charlie Smirke, 8/1 Mustakmil, 10/1 Prince Of Thebes, 12/1 Gallantry, Mishrif, 14/1 Lisahane Bog, 20/1 Dinner Date.

DIOMED VERDICT: WILLOW DANCER deserves a break after three solid efforts on the spin and his draw is useful for one who likes to be up there.

Duplicity is all red and 3/1

455 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Famous Name, 7/1 Priomhbhean, 8/1 You´ll Be Mine, 10/1 Barring Decree, Riynaaz, 12/1 Choose Me, Ezalli, 14/1 Devoted To You, 16/1 Icon Dream, Rain Forest, 25/1 Harriers Call, 50/1 Celtic Soprano, 66/1 Good Time Sue, 100/1 Silver Tide.

Huge price gapper today , this Famous Name. Do not be put off by the 6 and 7 last 2 races as he was tackling Group 1 company

510 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Jovial, 11/2 Belle Boleyn, 15/2 Captain Cool, 8/1 Wasara, 10/1 Empress Leizu, Miss Whippy, 14/1 Belle Zorro, Lalika, Motirani, 16/1 Jewellery, 20/1 Eurasian, 25/1 Charpoy Cobra, 33/1 Pictures, 66/1 Bonamassa.

DIOMED VERDICT: JOVIAL escapes a penalty for his 5l Lingfield win and should be very hard to beat.