*****ONE A DAY - 805pm - Man City v Lech Poznan - back Man City in the match odds at 1.24*****
I hope that, despite no collateral form, there are no suprises - a strong team should ensure a victory.
Not a moment's worry for Barcelona apart from the 2 stonewall goals missed by Santon, and the crossbar shot. The defensive Barca are a sad sight and their scorelines reflect a stifling play, but we got the result.
4pm - San Marino U17 v Ukraine U17 - 1.04 away - 1130am sees the Spanish under 17's at 1.04 and that should be an easy goal laden win too but is out of the time bracket for this message. San Marino have lost their last 12, conceding 4,4,10,3,3,3,3,4,6,4,6,6 and have scored only 1 goal.
Ukraine are unbeaten in their last 8 matches, 4 wins and 4 draws.
MArkets highly illiquid at Betfair at time of writing and hopefully will get better as we near 4pm
Enhanced bets? halftime/fulltime and over 3.5 goals to trade. Minimum conceded by San Marino has been 3 in their last 12 games - long enough sequence to be reliable.
6pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Hajduk Split - 1.27 home - difficult to get a comparitor here so we would have to have faith in the market here and in Russian league being stronger than the Croatian.Zenit have won 7 and drawn 1 of their last 8 matches.
730pm - Netherlands U17 v Latvia U17 - 1.22 home - Dutch have scored 3 goals twice in 2 head to heads in 2007/2008 -under 17 so of course the team differs yearly. Good form lines with Ukraine and Georgia who Latvia lost to, and Netherlands beat.
805pm -Atl Madrid v Rosenborg - 1.37 home - La Liga v Norwegian league top flight. Logic dictates that La Liga offers the greater competition. Home advantage too for Atl Madrid but again difficult to quantify.
805pm - Man City v Lech Poznan - 1.24 home - team news important as the Premiership is on Saturday and City have a good shot at it this year thanks to United's blunders. Should dispatch a Polish opposition at home but I would look at team news - a good team = more confidence.
805pm - Villarreal v PAOK - 1.35 home - Again La Liga v Greece league. Typical Greeks. Their last 7 games have featured 4 1-0's on the trot, 2 1-1's and a 0-0.
( they lost 3 of the 1-0's)
6 wins, draw and loss for Villareal in last 8 matches. In good form and scoring regularly.
315 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 National Trust, 7/2 Armenian Boy, 8/1 Prestbury Knight, 10/1 Nothing´s Easy, Pocket Too, Tibetan Dragon, 16/1 Bachley Gale, 20/1 John Sixteen, Petrosian, Tighe Caster, 25/1 Tayman, 66/1 Jug Of Punch, Penny King.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ARMENIAN BOY, runner-up here last time in a handicap, is just preferred to National Trust. |
A selling hurdle pretty much sums up a poor day's worth of racing. Armenian Boy is now 2/1, all red and backed but in a seller for a reason?
350 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Silverhand, 11/8 Aitmatov, 8/1 Killyglen, 12/1 Elysian Rock, 33/1 Bruach Na Mara, 100/1 Lady Of Synone,
No wonder that Silverhand is now 1/3 , Aitmatov is a non runner. A clear round should suffice for this Carberry/Meade combo horse. Interestingly Aitmatov was a Meade runner as well.
440 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Catbells, 9/2 Baoli, 5/1 Timocracy, 8/1 Little Meadow, Quality Mover, Santa Margherita, 9/1 Merrymadcap, 10/1 Mayfair´s Future, 12/1 Prince Valentine, 20/1 Rezwaan.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A chance is taken that MERRYMADCAP returns to form on his first run back with Matthew Salaman. |
Catbells runs of the same mark as close up run last time out and his chances have been reflected in the betting 2/1 and all red in this class 6 handicap.
520 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Zakatal, 6/4 Natureofthebeast, 13/2 Eternal City, 66/1 Youandme.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ZAKATAL could be too quick for Natureofthebeast in what could develop into a straight match. |
Novices hurdle and should involve 2 for 2 places. Will they both complete this 2 mile 5 furlong novices hurdle?
640 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Bakongo, 6/1 Destiny Blue, 7/1 Tamtara, 8/1 Goodlukin Lucy, Snow Magic, 10/1 Abhar, Alubari, Dhan Dhana, 12/1 Elmfield Giant, Scorn, 14/1 Streets Of War, 16/1 Think Its All Over, 20/1 Onyx Of Arabia, 33/1 Thundering Home.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The best is still to come from ALUBARI and he is taken to make a winning start to life in handicaps. |
Any coincidence that the Diomed mention is now 9/4 and favourite?
810 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Modun, 5/1 Alfonso The Wise, 7/1 Spensley, 10/1 Argaum, Rowan Tiger, 20/1 Ethics Girl, Straits Of Hormuz, 25/1 Archie Rice, Oxford City, Tricky Situation, 33/1 Pippa Greene.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to get away from the very well-bred MODUN, who was well on top at the finish in an ordinary Folkestone maiden and who could prove to be a good deal better than his opening mark of 79. |
Spensley backed into 11/4 ( note the race time) and Fallon booked for this course and distance winner. Follow the apparent early money?
SHORTLIST
4pm - San Marino U17 v Ukraine U17 - 1.04 away - minimum of 3 expected by Ukraine this afternoon. Problem is liquidity as I write but over 2.5 goals would be of interest if the market was liquid, as would halftime/fulltime.
805pm - Man City v Lech Poznan - 1.24 home - I would expect a home win, although of course there can always be surprises when 2 teams meet for the first time. ( one team's tactics may simply not suit the other side)
350 THURLES - do we take it as a given that Noel Meade Fancies Silverhand today, given he has take Aitmatov out (stable mate and near joint fav initially) Highly illiquid market at present but should be 1.1 or bigger to place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
To me Ukraine v San Marino is the best bet of the day, but the market is illiquid at present so it may be difficult for all to get a bet on. MArkets of interest?
Halftime/fulltime
Correct score -3-0 ( to trade) - San Marino have only scored once in last 12 ( could be a lot more but my research website only goes as far back as 12 matches
Over 2.5 goals ( 1.15 currently but tuppence on at that price) - San Marino have lost by a minimum of 3 goals in all of their last 12 matches
A real pity there is no liquidity
350 THURLES - as ever, a clear round is required but the sole remaining Meade runner should win with ease and thus place
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
No comments:
Post a Comment