back-lay-trade-horses-football: 9/10

***** ONE A DAY 220 Chepstow is the BETFAIR.COM/PAULNICHOLLS JUVENILE HURDLE (CLASS 4) so I will take the hint and back the Nicholls/Walsh Domtaline to place only - 1.1 at present*****

Uruguay won, and an enchanced bet thrown in for good measure. They consented to go a goal down so were backable at 1.4!! Nice.
Other enhanced bets? Spain at 1-1, Ukraine 2-0 down to ,erm, Canada .
Serbia let the multiple down but did score first so I could have hedged out of my lay of Estonia to cover my multiple stake, and was not concentrating. It would have cost me £4-£5 insurance!!

1pm - Banik Sokolov v Sparta Prague - 1.35 away - Czech Cup match - in running but likely to be highly illiquid. Lowest asian handicap is +1.5 goals so expecting an away win.
Division 2 v Division 1 - last met in Cup in 2007 when Sparta won 5-1
Sparta have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 8, that loss was in the Europa League.In good form.
Banik have won their last 3 but I have no idea of the relative merits of the opposition.
A nice price for Sparta if they can replicate earlier head to head.

2pm - Luxembourg U19 v Serbia U19 - 1.06 away - we saw yesterday that these prices equal goals. Only match odds and 2.5 goals available and highly illiquid.

2pm - Netherlands U19 v Malta U19 - 1.07 home - again only match odds and 2.5 goals.

2pm - OFI v Diagoras Rodou - 1.22 home - Greek 2nd division, not in running. Diagoras have won the last 2 head to heads so why are OFI 1.22?

3pm - Southampton v Tranmere - 1.46 home head to heads shared with tranmere winning at home and Soton winning at home
In running. WDWDLLLWLD for Southampton and I cannot see immediately why they are 1.46 to win this match. Form is poor.
They have only won 1 at home, drawing 2 and losing 1.
As to goals, apart from scoring 2 in their last match, the previous matches saw 1,1,0,0,0,04,1,0
Apart from the anomolous 4 goals away , they have struggled to score.
4 draws, 4 losses and 2 wins for Tranmere this season. They are more likely , therefore, to be successful lays as 80% of their results are losses or draws.
Tranmere have scored a goal in each of their last 6 matches. DDLLW away from home.

7pm - Waterford v Finn Harps - 1.36 home - asians start at +1 for this Irish league match. In running. Waterford won last 2 head to heads at home and drew away twice . So they are favoured today by home advantage.
Over 1.5 goals looks likely here, although Finn HArps have not scored at Waterford in their last 2 visits.

Waterford have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 7 matches in the league.
3 score draws in their last 4 matches shows Finn harps can score.
Have only beaten whipping boys Mervue and Salthill Devon in their last 12.

830pm - Spain U21 v Croatia U21 - 1.44 home - in running. At first glance, Croatia's games are full of goals. 4,5,2,4,3,3,4,4,2,2,3,2 in their last 12 is a decent average.
Spain have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 9 so are in good health
Croatia won 6 on the trot away from home before losing to France and drawing with Serbia. I would opt, I think, for neutral goals bet here given the apparent goal threat that Croatia may have. 1.26 over 1.5 goals.

10pm - Guatemala v Belize - 1.31 home - 2 poor sides meet in this friendly and it is not in running. WLWLWLD for Guatemala recently and it's DDLLLLDWLLLL - the win was against St Kitts and Nevis.

Guatemala are bad, but Belize must be shocking if Guatemala are priced at 1.31!!

A very difficult day with few clear cut betting or trading football matches.

155 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Big Issue, 100/30 Tazahum, 11/2 Memen, 6/1 Catalyze, Dubawi Gold.

DIOMED VERDICT: Just a doubt whether BIG ISSUE is as far ahead of his rivals as BHA ratings suggest but, having run creditably in higher grade, he is likely to prove equal to the task anyway. Tazahum is the dark horse of the race but Memen, having shown he can handle give underfoot, may be the one for the forecast.

WInner of a head to head last time out and thought capable still at 10/11. But a sign yesterday I hope when Dettori's mount failed to place in a 2 the place race. We have to get these spot on as there is no margin for error.

210 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Galianna, 5/1 Style Of Campile, 8/1 Haste Ye Bach, 10/1 My Cool Lady, Tovaria, 12/1 Career Move, Credit Box, Milbig Lass, Patseysister, 14/1 Cappadrinagh, Sunset Susie, 16/1 Chapter Eleven, Some Gem, 33/1 Cloda´s Choice, Moon Over Moscow, 50/1 Burton Girl,

2nd fav is out and McManus colours on the favourite makes him interesting to me.

220 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Domtaline, 4/1 Fine Lace, 10/1 Groove Master, 14/1 Whiepa Snappa, 16/1 Highland Cadett, Moonbalej, 25/1 Fochabers, 33/1 Naseby, 50/1 Kingspark Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: This can go to DOMTALINE.

Nicholls/Walsh and a short priced favourite. Who'd have thunk it!!

Now 1/3 and all debutants in this hurdle so can we rely on the market and reputation? This is the Betfair/Paul Nicholls sponsored race so I expect he has chosen this horse to win.

225 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Drill Sergeant, 5/2 There´s No Panic, 100/30 Get It On, 6/1 Kilcrea Kim, 10/1 Three Chords, 25/1 What An Oscar.

DIOMED VERDICT: DRILL SERGEANT is a potentially good recruit to hurdling and made a pleasing start at Worcester.

2nd fav is a non runner so can we rely on Drill Sergeant? McCoy onboard and when I choose him for one a day, he suddenly becomes a lady apprentice claiming jockey with a blindfold on and hands tied behind his back!!

240 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Not For Converting, 5/1 Gala Dancer, 7/1 Fairwood Massini, 8/1 Father Shine, Grangeclare Rhythm, Soldier Bay, 10/1 First Morning, 12/1 Kings County Star, Moscow Storm, 14/1 Imperial Breeze, Margie´s Man, 20/1 Fantastic Gold, Harps Counsel, Jack Apple, 33/1 Chinook Run, Gemstone Star,

Gala dancer a significant market mover into 7/4 here

325 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Watamu Bay, 7/2 Aberdale, Balthazar King, 6/1 The Shoe, 20/1 Clyffe Hanger.

DIOMED VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has won the last four runnings of this contest and WATAMU BAY, who progressed to a mark of 140 after just four starts over hurdles for Charlie Mann, may be able to enhance that record.

All red and 6/4 but nowhere near the odds on the betting forecaster expected.

Should be 4 horses and 2 places and another Nicholls/Walsh combo.

405 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Silviniaco Conti, 4/1 My Brother Sylvest, 10/1 Barrie Burn, Pie At Midnight, 12/1 Malindi Bay, 14/1 Roper, 20/1 Grafite, 33/1 Our Flora, 50/1 Kayfton Pete, Roxane Bruere.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks good for French import SILVINIACO CONTI, who could easily be above average.

My brother Sylvest is interesting now into 5/2 and all red.

515 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tara Royal, 11/4 Robinson Collonges, 3/1 Otage De Brion, 9/2 Pouvoir, 10/1 Wessex King, 20/1 Marley Roca, 66/1 That´s The Deal.

DIOMED VERDICT: Robinson Collonges is an interesting chasing debutant but a few of these already have form in the book over fences and TARA ROYAL gets the verdict.

Robinson Collonges 9/4 and all red for Nicholls but we can't help but wonder whether these shortenings in price are down to the Nicholls partnership with Betfair?

530 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Lady Counsellor, 7/2 Dunowen Point, 4/1 River Dragon, 16/1 Gun And More, 20/1 Cool Vic, Katie´s Prince, 25/1 Adin Abroad, 33/1 Phar Beyond, 50/1 Highland Cathedral.

DIOMED VERDICT: It might pay to give another chance to the impeccably bred LADY COUNSELLOR now that she is switched to turf.

Another market mover in Dunowen Point into 6/4, all red, for this conditional's bumper ( no obstacles) I like McCain Jr yard so this is interesting. ( Look too at the betting forecast - 3 only under 16/1!!)

545CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Merehead, 100/30 Kartanian, 8/1 Golden Chieftain, Royal Scoundrel, 10/1 Don Pooleoni, 12/1 Blues And Twos, 16/1 Hawkaller, Smart Catch, 25/1 A Splash Of Green, Pentopyn Harry, 28/1 Mocambo, 50/1 Logan Rock, Silver Peninsula, 66/1 Double Fun, El Pescadero, 100/1 Sans Un Souci.

DIOMED VERDICT: MEREHEAD sets a decent standard on his debut second at Newbury in March and can give Paul Nicholls a fourth win in this since 2002.

Nicholls/Walsh again in this bumper.

640 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Jaridh, 11/4 Oversteer, 5/1 Irons On Fire, 10/1 Ajeeb, Plattsburgh, Tmaam, 12/1 Coastal Bequest, 33/1 Diamond City, Swift Blade, 100/1 Steel Rain, Xenophon,

DIOMED VERDICT: JARIDH gets the vote on the strength of his encouraging debut here three weeks back.

What is eyecatching here is Richard Hughes riding for Godolphin. Nose 2nd on debut at this venue.

840 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Praesepe, 4/1 Nadinska, 9/2 Sparking, 5/1 Bushwhacker, 15/2 Doc Hay, 8/1 Mottley Crewe, 10/1 Luisa Tetrazzini, 16/1 Captain Bluebird, 20/1 Spring Leap, 50/1 True Red, 100/1 One Cat Diesel, Riggs, Shesasnip.

DIOMED VERDICT: PRAESEPE deserves another chance after an excusable failure last time and is well drawn.