back-lay-trade-horses-football: 7 Oct

Ireland look strong today, Brazil is tempting and the bumpers are the races I would choose given so many hurdlers/chasers are coming back off absences.

***** ONE A DAY - Republic of Ireland v Luxembourg under 19 match - back Republic of Ireland in the match odds at 1.16 currently"*****

I will actually personally be getting involved in Brazil today knowing full well it is a friendly and I am likely to be filling the swear jar at an erroneous result. It is in running which is good.

I just want to show you that although I may say no bet day, there are still opportunities for those willing to look

Tennis > Nadal v Raonic : Set Betting

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection	Odds	Stake(€)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(€)
Nadal 2 - 0	1.16	200.00	Back	07-Oct-10 06:47	32.62
*Average odds: On Off				Back subtotal:	32.62
				Lay subtotal:	0.00
				Market subtotal:	32.62
				Commission @ 4.69%:	1.53
				Net Market Total:	31.09

2-0 set betting for Nadal this morning. 1.16 -great odds.

Darts > Taylor v A Smith : Correct Score

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection	Odds	Stake(€)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(€)
Taylor 3 - 0	1.26	200.00	Back	06-Oct-10 20:17	52.00
Taylor 3 - 0	1.08	233.33	Lay	06-Oct-10 20:49	-18.67
*Average odds: On Off				Back subtotal:	52.00
				Lay subtotal:	-18.67
				Market subtotal:	33.33
				Commission @ 4.71%:	1.57
				Net Market Total:	31.76

Darts - 3-0 sets to Phil Taylor , traded out at 1.08. Taylor was 1.03 in the match odds , and like the tennis, we can enhance the bet with a set betting scenario. I only noticed this as I was flicking through Sky Sports and there was a piece about Taylor.

Soccer > Mladost Apatin v Partizan Belgrade : Match Odds

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection	Odds	Stake(€)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(€)
Partizan Belgrade	1.15	200.00	Back	06-Oct-10 13:51	29.16
*Average odds: On Off				Back subtotal:	29.16
				Lay subtotal:	0.00
				Market subtotal:	29.16
				Commission @ 4.7%:	1.37
				Net Market Total:	27.79

I managed 1.15 for Partizan Belgrade. Note the time. I was not cheating by placing the bet and then giving you the message. I found there was enough liquidity -the market would collapse if I gave it out as a one a day for all.

Tennis > Wozniacki v Errani : Match Odds

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection	Odds	Stake(€)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(€)
Caroline Wozniacki	1.12	200.00	Back	05-Oct-10 22:13	24.00
*Average odds: On Off				Back subtotal:	24.00
				Lay subtotal:	0.00
				Market subtotal:	24.00
				Commission @ 4.71%:	1.13
				Net Market Total:	22.87

Another blog mention here and a backed in the match odds at 1.12

Just showing you that I follow my own advice and do trade where I can ( Woz's match was early morning so I couldn't)

In fact, of the market movers mentioned yesterday over jumps, we have a winner and 2nd place ( i.e. both horses placed)

FOOTBALL
12pm -Croatia U19 v Faroe Islands U19 - 1.06 match odds - 1.25 over 2.5 goals.
Faroes have lost 10 and drawn 2 of last 12. One of draws was in last match ( 0-0) away .

2pm - Rep of Ireland U19 v Luxembourg U19 - 1.15 - in running - +2.5 asian handicap.Luxembourg same record as Faroes.
Ireland have only lost 3 of last 12 , but last 6 matches have seen 5 single goal games and a solitary 0-0. Problems scoring? or an opportunity to fill yer boots today?

2pm - Slovakia U19 v Malta U19 - 1.18 home - again Malta record in last 12 exactly same as Faroes and Lux.
Slovakia in poor form those - lost last 4 and lost 7 of last 9.

6pm - Iran v Brazil - 1.3 away - yes a meaningless friendly but a new manager to impress for the Brazilians - is that enough motivation to back at a juicy 1.3?

This is all I could find.
"

Brazil are without a number of players, with Alex (thigh) missing out through injury.

The likes of Ronaldinho, Neymar, Lucio, Maicon, Felipe Melo and Diego have all been left out of the squad for tonight's game.

Nilmar has been included in the squad but may have to settle for a place on the bench, with the South Americans possibly starting with an attacking trio of Alexandre Pato, Philippe Coutinho and Robinho.

Pato has been passed fit after recently struggling with a muscle problem and said ahead of tonight's game: "I am at 100 per cent. I was able to play a little at the weekend with Milan and all the pains have passed. I am feeling very comfortable."

Taking place in Abu Dhabi. In running and a tight asians market to start.
Iran have only lost 1 of their last 11 matches but opposition like Thailand, Oman, Singapore are hardly going to give Brazil sleepless nights.

200 WORCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Qroktou, 7/2 Stormyisland Ahead, 7/1 Hadron Collider, 10/1 Bob Casey, Kasban, 14/1 Tullyraine, 16/1 Lady Karinga, 20/1 Landenstown Star, Shared Secret, 33/1 Harry Oscar, Man Of Leisure, 50/1 Commanche Dream, Inishrush, Nishnash, 100/1 It´s Molly, Native Cherry.

DIOMED VERDICT: QROKTOU has produced enough as a hurdler to suggest he can take this.

Big field but only 3 under 14/1 and 7 are 66/1 or bigger. Novices hurdles event and Qroktou is 8/11 but not run since April 2010.

225 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dunraven Storm, 15/8 Remember Now, 7/1 Dean´s Grange, 12/1 Molanna View, 14/1 Bally Legend, 16/1 Ask The Oracle, 25/1 Benny The Swinger, 33/1 Canyouseeme, Chase Gate, 40/1 Prickles, 50/1 Cruise In Style, Gallimaufry, 66/1 Blakeneys Pet, 100/1 Tracy Road.

DIOMED VERDICT: DUNRAVEN STORM's proven stamina might win the day.

Course and distance winner albeit in bumpers - hurdles debut

235 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Owen Glendower, 5/2 Dynaste, 3/1 Gurtacrue, 9/1 Royale´s Charter, 14/1 Sablazo, 33/1 Jumpjack Flint, Prince Paolo, Track Star, 50/1 Jay J, Sheezatreasure.

DIOMED VERDICT: DYNASTE produced a good level as a hurdler in France and can make a winning debut for David Pipe.

Clear rounds pending, this should involve the 4 horses under 25/1 in the live betting market/

530 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Cap Elorn, 11/4 Youralltalk, 7/2 Otis Tarda, 13/2 Hes Our Lad, 8/1 Laveroque, 16/1 Driving Onwards, Withy Mills, 25/1 Avon Gale, 33/1 Spring A Suprise, 40/1 Koralsdarling, Samtheman.

DIOMED VERDICT: Youralltalk just about sets the standard on his second at Newton Abbot but this could well prove a stronger race and newcomers CAP ELORN, Otis Tarda and Hes Our Lad have sound credentials.

A race for market consultation.

535 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mister Music Man, 4/1 Roszas Girl, 11/2 Montagnard, 10/1 Definite Class, Lady Olwyn, Mighty Snazy, 25/1 Seancill Oir, 33/1 Stowaway Susie.

No coincidence that Nina Carberry is on favourite and Katy Walsh on 2nd fav.

600 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Eastlake, 5/2 Shan Blue, 5/1 Flora King, 8/1 Boosha, 12/1 Brannoc, 16/1 Lord Kennedy, Subtle Approach, 20/1 Fairwood Dante, Just Unique, Kidajo, 66/1 Mi Man Sam.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHAN BLUE is the most expensive purchase in the field, having been picked up for £58,000 after winning his only start between the flags in Ireland, and represents a trainer who is 1-1 in bumpers here in recent seasons.

Bumper so market consultation but Eastlake is all red, and Shan Blue another of interest given Diomed's info.

710 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mon Visage, 4/1 Jahanara, 6/1 Khaleeji, 10/1 Blowing Bubbles, My Delirium, 33/1 Act Of Faith, Alluring Star, Illmindu, 66/1 Lady Mango, Ladydolly, Primo Muscovado.

DIOMED VERDICT: BLOWING BUBBLES was well held on her recent debut but it doesn't tell the whole story and she represents a stable whose juveniles usually come on a good deal for their initial experience.