I hope the ground remains good to soft and the betting market does not harbour any dark horses.
Easy enough for Belgium u19 in the end.
Thanks to the non runners, there were a large number of 4 and 5 horse races still paying out for 3 places and in situations like these, it pays to be flexible and take a chance that the favourite, say, in this new market, will not get beaten by 3 horses in a 4 horse race!!
I suspect we will see this a lot as the winter takes hold.
4pm - Portugal U19 v Azerbaijan U19 - 1.14 home - asian handicaps begin at +2 to +2.5 goals.
In running. Portugal are WDLL for their last 4 matches and have played Belgium twice in those matches, drawing 1 and winning one. The losses came against Croatia and Spain, the former a 5-0 home defeat.
LDLL for Azerbaijan for their last 4. Their wins in their last 12 matches have come against Poland, Israel, Lithuania and San Marino.
I don't know what to make of Azerbaijan because I would have thought that Poland was a good enough yardstick?
They have lost their 2 2010 away matches.
Portugeuse have lost 4 of their last 7 home matches, drawn 1 and won 2.
The market signals a comfortable afternoon.
5pm - Giannina v Pierikos - 1.25 home - 0-0 in their last 2 head to heads. Giannina's last match was 0-0 and Pierikos's last 2 matches have been 1-0's.
745pm - Brazil v Ukraine - 1.49 home - superb in the last friendly, the Brazilians did the business albeit against Iran, and played some first team European performers.
Ukraine were 2-0 down to the might of Canada before drawing 2-2.
In running, and it goes without saying that this is a friendly.
745pm - Salthill Devon v Monaghan Utd - 1.28 away - Monaghan have scored 9 in these 2's head to heads in 2010.
Salthill have not won any of their last 12.LDLDLWD at home for Salthill so can throw in the odd game without losing.
LWLL for Monaghan last 4 matches includes 2 league cup losses to the same team, Sligo.
Prior to that it was WWWWWW .
230 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Jacobs Son, 11/2 September Draw, 13/2 Blue Dazzler, Mountain Range, 7/1 Bowermaster, My Little Star, 8/1 Ihavenotime, Silver Shine, 14/1 Rafella, Swaninstockwell, 33/1 Will Barrow.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There is a decent case to be made for Jacobs Son but several of these have the potential to improve a good deal now they are sent into nursery company and the tentative suggestion is MOUNTAIN RANGE. |
Big market move for Swaninstockwell into 5/1 all red 2nd favourite and likely to shorten.
420 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Secrecy, 11/4 Carnaby Street, 9/2 Balducci, 8/1 Prince Of Dance, 10/1 Oratory, 12/1 Nasri, 20/1 Layline.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Secrecy commands plenty of respect but preference is for CARNABY STREET who is very much at home on a soft surface and is a Group 3 winner without a penalty (gets a 5lb punishment for this season's success only). |
Interesting race in that it is now 6 runners for 2 places and 3 runners only under 14/1. Will Secrecy and Carnaby dominate?
440 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Launchpad, 5/2 Waabel, 5/1 Loyaliste, 6/1 Gift Of Love, 20/1 Fair Breeze, 25/1 Supatov, 28/1 Mackenzie Spiers, Spacecraft, 50/1 Deo Valente, The Brown Bomber, 66/1 Madj´s Baby.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LAUNCHPAD is readily preferred. |
Only 4 horses here under 25/1 and Launchpad has the assistance of a revitalised Fallon. If this is a 4 horse race, then Launchpad has an outstanding chance of placing.
SHORTLIST
4pm - Portugal U19 v Azerbaijan U19 - 1.14 home - a comfortable afternoon envisioned for the Portugeuse here if the betting market is to be believed. What are we to make of the Azerbaijan win over Poland? San Marino - my gran could beat them! Ditto Lithuania. But Israel and Poland look decent opposition for a country such as Azerbaijan to beat. In running.
745pm - Brazil v Ukraine - 1.49 home - Ukraine have enjoyed their friendlies since the World Cup qualifiers, WWWDDWD (latest last). Brazil have won 10 drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 12.
I would expect them to breach Ukraine, but to hold on , given Ukraine propensity to draw?
Possible trade therefore?
745pm - Salthill Devon v Monaghan Utd - 1.28 away - 9 goals in 2 head to heads should seal an away victory surely? But this is Ireland and Salthill tend to draw alternate games at home. They have also scored 1 in all of their last 4 matches so perhaps over 1.5 goals ?( scuppered by the fact this is not in running, nor is there any 1.5 goal market on Betfair)
440 WINDSOR - we are heading back into the territory of the maiden , but these are 3 year olds and I hope a little more street smart and reliable.
The betting market points to 4 horses here to focus on , but Supatov is 16/1 with Bet365 singularly and may be a market mover developing throughout the day.
From a probability perspective, at time of writing, Launchpad has a great chance of placing with Fallon up, and progressive form. Ground is good to soft at present and we would have to place our faith in the Racing Post ( any softer and I would not want to be betting ) 1.12 to place ( illiquid at time of writing - may go up, or may go down)
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm - Portugal U19 v Azerbaijan U19 - 1.14 home - follow the betting market here and the assumption that this is an easy afternoon? +2 start in the asian handicap market signals this.
745pm - Brazil v Ukraine - 1.49 home - they were 2-0 down to the mighty Canada in their last friendly ( Celine Dion and Alanis Morissette getting the goals), Ukraine face a Brazil side who easily dispatched of Iran.
BUT that game was in Abu Dhabi. Any changes likely? This is a friendly so we have plenty of opportunity to check the strength or otherwise of the Brazilian team.
440 WINDSOR - I would prefer to decide on maidens nearer race time, but as I write Launchpad looks ideally placed to , erm, place. Fallon on for Cumani.
Concerns? The ground may not be the good to soft advertised in the Racing Post. If it becomes soft, then maidens become a lot more difficult to predict.
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