The 310 Pontefract looks the best race of the day. We must have faith that the soft ground described in the Racing Post is not on the heavier side of soft.
THe probability that Sand Skier will place rather than not place is higher. 5 horses and 3 places and a short head 2nd last time out in soft ground.
*****ONE A DAY - 310 Pontefract - Sand Skier to place only. I would not go any lower than 1.10*****
I actually tried to back PSV at half time as well at 1.47 yesterday but Betfair had the market suspended for some reason. They won easily.
2pm - Panthrakikos v Kallithea - 1.49 home - Greek division 2 and Kallithea won last head to head ( cup game) 1-0 and Panthrakikos have lost 4 of their last 6, drawing 1 and winning 1. No thanks at that price!
2pm - Sliven v Levski Sofia - 1.35 away - Bulgarian top flight.WLWW for head to heads to Levski. Lost 1-0 away at Sliven in 2009. There have been 2 1-0's in their last 3 head to heads ( last match was 2-0 home win for Levski Sofia.)
Levski has won 8 and lost 1 ( last match 5-0 away to Sporting Lisbon) so are in great form.
LWDLLWLLL for Sliven
3 losses and a win so far for Sliven at home. A couple of 1-0 losses.
Asian handicaps point to +1.5 and +2 goals handicap so comfortable away win expected.. This game is in running so is obvious interest.
715pm - H Berlin v Aachen - 1.5 home - weren't Hertha Berlin in the top flight last season?
WWDWWWW for Hertha so far 3,3,4 scored so far at home for Hertha. Quite obviously they are loving this easier division. ( Division 2)
2,2,2 so far for Aachen ( win, lose, draw)
LDW away from home. On a 2 game winning streak ( win away and win home)
This is in running. Over 1.5 goals is 1.23 which is interesting given Hertha's goal scoring capabilities at home.
915pm - Guimaraes v Porto - 1.65 away - Porto have won their last 11 in all competitions. On fire and brimming with confidence at the moment.1,0, 2-0, 2-0 away from home so far this season.
DWW at home for Guimaraes includes the scalp of Benfica ( although the latter are spluttering this season). 0-0, 2-1, 1-0 those scorelines are tight.
Porto have won last 6 head to heads. 3,4,3,2,5,2 the goals scored ( latest first) in those head to heads by Porto.
Their winning sequence will end soon ( and more likely away from home than at home) but against a team they dominate in head to heads, in a month where they have won all 3 away matches?
LOOKS LIKE SOFT GROUND EVERYWHERE TODAY WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR BETTING UNLESS A HORSE IS A CONFIRMED MUDLARK.
210 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ullswater, 11/2 Mahab El Shamaal, 13/2 Hurricane Guest, 9/1 Mojolika, 12/1 She´s Got The Luck, 16/1 Rasam Aldaar, Subramaniam, 28/1 Astromagick, 33/1 Rainbows Son, 50/1 Nay Secret, Silver Writer, Smart Violetta, 66/1 Santorino, 100/1 Pinotage.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ULLSWATER sets a clear standard on his near-miss at Bath last week and should be hard to beat. |
More 2 year olds but this 2 year old represents MArk Johnston and Greg Fairley and is a significant price gapper. Any reason to oppose? (ground, change in trip etc?)
Soft ground at Pontefract and Ullswater has not run on soft yet in his 2 runs.
310 pontefract
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sand Skier, 7/2 Gojeri, 9/2 Beaumont´s Party, 6/1 Raleigh Quay, 9/1 Conciliatory, 12/1 Al Farahidi, Barren Brook, 14/1 Spying, 16/1 She´s A Character.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SAND SKIER gets the marginal vote ahead of Gojeri and Beaumont's Party in an intriguing handicap. |
These are the types of races we can exploit on soft ground days. Here we have 5 survivors including original favourite Sand Skier who is another Johnston horse who was a short head 2nd last time out, in, guess what(?) , SOFT GROUND!!
So 5 horses and 3 places.
340 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Darley Sun, 2/1 Ajaan, 10/1 Baddam, 12/1 Any Given Moment, 25/1 Night Orbit.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Not a race to get involved with considering conditions are unlikely to suit either of the leading contenders, but it will be disappointing if DARLEY SUN cannot make the most of this drop in class. |
4 horses now and 2 places. One clear outsider and one 10/1 shot should leave the front 2 , both of whom have not run on soft ground yet. Dare we take the probability risk?
410 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Indian Valley, 3/1 Mark Twain, 5/1 Our Boy Barrington, 7/1 Mason Hindmarsh, 9/1 Strike A Deal, 10/1 George Benjamin, Mejd, 20/1 Shethoughtshewas.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Mason Hindmarsh will come here on a high after breaking his duck here last time but preference is for MARK TWAIN, who is proven on the ground and will be suited by the return to 1m. |
8 runners down to 4 runners. Indian Valley remains as favourite - like the Uttoxeter race yesterday, this is a 4 horse for 3 places.
Indian Valley has the soft ground form in his last 2 runs , winning one of those.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Sliven v Levski Sofia - 1.35 away - potential to trade this 1.35 if you back Levski given the relative tightness of 2 of the last 3 head to heads. Alternatively, back the 0-0 insurance bet as well as backing Levski Sofia. This match is in running.
715pm - H Berlin v Aachen - 1.5 home - this is a very interesting game as Hertha Berlin are obviously finding Division 2 a breeze thus far, unbeaten so far and scoring a minimum of 3 in home matches.
Hertha are likely to score, and if leading, they can be traded as that 1.5 offers plenty of scope. IN RUNNING.
915pm - Guimaraes v Porto - 1.65 away - won their last 11 have Porto , and clear in the head to heads ( winning comprehensively) This winning sequence will end eventually, but when? Away from home against a team they have beaten easily in last 6 head to heads?
In running and tradeable.
310 PONTEFRACT - 5 horses and 3 places and a market leader proven in soft ground. Sand Skier 1.12 to place ( illiquid market at present) short head 2nd in soft last time ( 3rd really in a dead heat for 1st place) - surely this can enable Sand Skier not to get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race?
410 PONTEFRACT - 4 horses and 3 places and Indian VAlley an obvious choice ( although the market has sniffed this one out already alas, he being 1.07 to place)
Like the Uttoxeter race yesterday, you will be very unlucky if a selection of yours does not place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
715pm - H Berlin v Aachen - 1.5 home - I just get the feeling that Hertha Berlin can lead at some stage in this match and therefore we can trade.
915pm - Guimaraes v Porto - 1.65 away - 11 game winning run will end soon, but against a team who they have comprehensively beaten in last 6 head to heads? Tradeable price if you think Porto will lead at some stage
310 PONTEFRACT - Sand Skier a short head 2nd in soft last time out in a 5 runner race for 3 places.
Now a word of warning. I do not know how "soft" this soft ground is, so have to take the Racing Post's description on faith.
Around 1.11 to place but a market that needs more money.I would take 1.1 but nothing lower. This seems to be the only horse with soft ground form ( and good and recent soft ground form)
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