back-lay-trade-horses-football: 8/10

*****ONE A DAY - 2pm - Indonesia v Uruguay - back Uruguay at 1.2 ( 1.18 now) - yes it is a friendly and I am breaking the cardinal rule again, but Indonesia losing to Thailand and Oman pretty much sums them up.*****

Loads of bets today and I will be getting involved in many football bets ( preference for the in running and tradeable bets)

8 Selections Chosen
1	Indonesia v Uruguay (Backing Uruguay @ 1.14)
2	Andorra v FYR Macedonia (Laying Andorra @ 17.7)
3	Hungary v San Marino (Backing Hungary @ 1.01)
4	Luxembourg v Belarus (Laying Luxembourg @ 17.03)
5	Ukraine v Canada (Laying Canada @ 16.68)
6	Moldova v Netherlands (Laying Moldova @ 24.47)
7	Serbia v Estonia (Laying Estonia @ 25.96)
8	Slovenia v Faroe Islands (Backing Slovenia @ 1.05)

8-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8	1.59	€100.00	€59.00

*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake:	€100.00
Your total potential win:	€59.00

Submit your bet(s) now?

Reasonable chance of success?

No probs with Ireland or Brazil -- 3-0 in the friendly and a nice booster yesterday.

130pm - England U19 v Albania U19 - 1.1 - 3-0 in 2008, this is a meaningful match so deserves attention. Home advantage should tell. 1.1 means goals. IN RUNNING and asian handicaps start at +2.5 so minimum 2 goals for England's nippers. Over 3.5 goals an option, albeit at an illiquid price.1.74 at present ( should be over evens - perhaps back with a bookmaker and trade on Betfair)
England/England halftime/fulltime is another method of increasing the match odds. 1.26 with Betfair , again in an illiquid market. Halftime is the same bet pretty much and that is very illiquid.
At www.bet365.com, halftime/fulltime is 1.30 and over 2.5 goals is 1.30
2pm - Indonesia v Uruguay - 1.2 away - Indonesia have lost 7 and drawn 3 of their last 10, including losses to Thailand, Singapore, Oman. Uruguay surely should spank this lot if the humidity does not affect them. In running. Friendly
230pm - France U19 v San Marino U19 - unbackable , literally! Goals here I think or halftime/fulltime - San Marino have conceded 4,4,5,5,8,6,4,1,5,5,5,5 in their last 12 matches. We should expect 4 goals minimum today. A real pity this is not in running and there is only an illiquid match odds and 2.5 goals market.
5pm - Kazakhstan v Belgium - 1.55 away - 2 sides in poor form. Kazak's have only beaten Oman, Andorra and Estonia in last 12, losing the rest.
Belgians I thought would have been a bit better, but they have lost lost 8 and won 4 ( 3 of which were friendlies) - NO DRAWS at all in 24 games for either side. Lay the draw here or hope this no draw sequence continues?
6pm - Andorra v FYR Macedonia - 1.28 away - this price looks outstanding given the opponents. Am I missing anything? Are Macedonia poor themselves but the best of a bad bunch?
Andorra have lost their last 12.
They have lost their last 12 at home, but one notable match was 1-0 loss to Russia in 2007. Since then, they have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of the following home matches.
Macedonia have lost 2 of their last 12. Recently DLDWWW in last 6. Latest draw came with 95th minute Macedonian equaliser.
Last 6 away matches for Macedonians have seen 2 1-1 draws, 3 1-0's and a 0-0.
Their opposition was not exactly world class - goal scoring may be an issue here even against Andorra. Hence the 1.28 away price?
Asians start at +1.5
6pm - Georgia v Malta - 1.34 home - Malta beat Georgia 2-0 in friendly in 2009 so I will leave this alone.
6pm - Hungary v San Marino - 1.03 home - again look for goals. Hungary have only drawn 1 and won 2 of their last 12, but they have been playing the likes of England, Germany, Holland, Russia, Portugal.
Now they face an easier test. 6,5,3,7,5,7,10,3,3,4,3,2 the amount of goals conceded by San Marino in their last 12.The last goal they scored was in October 2008.
+3.5 asian handicaps start at.
1.2 halftime/fulltime at Betfair ( illiquid market)
1.54 over 3.5 goals is tradeable and liquid
7pm - Ukraine v Canada - 1.31 - Shevchenko v Bryan Adams - friendly - in running. Losses to the likes of Jamaica and Honduras should give us an idea of the level Canada are at.
Dare we trust a first team for Ukraine? Only lost 1 of last 12.
715pm - Luxembourg v Belarus - 1.32 away - 3 1-0's and a 0-0 in 4 of their last 5 show Belarus may be taking on a more defensive style? Luxembourg's only win recently was against a league side.
730pm - Austria v Azerbaijan - 1.3 home
730pm - England U21 v Romania U21 - 1.51 home
730pm - Moldova v Netherlands - 1.24 away - Dutch unbeaten in last 12 and look solid here at another interesting price. Moldova beat Finland and lost to Hungary in qualifiers so far. Asians start at +1.5 goals.
730pm - Serbia v Estonia - 1.22 home - Serbia look tough to beat so if scoring , they should seal the points. Estonia's only win away in last 12 has come against Angola.
745pm - Germany v Turkey - 1.65 home - again the Germans can be speculated here as I did in their last match when even better odds. Turkey have good recent form, only lost 2 in last 12.
745pm - Slovenia v Faroe Islands - 1.08 home - impressive enough in the World Cup. Faroes have lost all Europ qualifiers so far. +2.5 asian handicap starts. In running but unmanaged.
9pm - Spain v Lithuania - 1.11 home - friendly loss last time a case of " heart not in it" for Spain so can be ignored. 0-0 and 1-0 away win to Czechs could mean Lithuania are battlers in the Euro qualifiers? +2.5 goals the asian handicap for this Barcelona, sorry I mean Spanish, side.
1.16 over 1.5 goals is interesting but 2 shut outs so far for Lithuania (Scots and Czechs) a cause for concern? Home advantage for Spanish

220 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Qenaa, 5/1 Conducting, 11/2 In Babylon, 8/1 Icy Blue, Lady Intrigue, 10/1 Sabratha, 16/1 Home Office, 33/1 Gnr Steamtrain, 66/1 Cannon Bolt.

DIOMED VERDICT: QENAA's second at Glorious Goodwood sets a high standard and she should be hard to beat. Conducting may be the pick of her rivals.

I hope I have shown that 2 year olds with good enough recent form can be opposed if there is any significant changes ( trip, ground, turf to all weather)

Here we have Qenaa, a Mark Johnston horse, a short head 2nd last time out.9 runners and only 3 under 14/1.
Up to 7 furlongs today from 5 and 6 recently. Why doesn't Johnston wait for a 6 furlong race? After all, the horse was short head 2nd over 6f last time out ( or am I being too simplistic?)

Good to soft today. If the ground changes to soft, then we have 1) upping in trip and 2) change in ground which will make Qenaa possibly opposable if short enough in the betting.

245 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kirklees, 9/4 Kings Gambit, 7/2 Jet Away, 14/1 Demolition, 16/1 Chock A Block, 20/1 Waseet, 25/1 Mystery Star.

DIOMED VERDICT: The conditions of this race favour KIRKLEES, he should be cherry ripe after his encouraging return when fourth in the Doonside Cup at Ayr and he can reverse form with Kings Gambit on 2lb better terms.