Easy enough yesterday.
1pm - Israel U19 v Spain U19 - 1.31 away
130pm - AZ Alkmaar v Willem II - 1.22 home - AZ have won the last 4, and won 5 of last 6 in head to heads. 3,2,3,5 goals scored in those 4 wins.
4 game winning run for AZ. 9 games played, 3 1-1's and 3 1-0's , 2 losses and a 2-1 win. SLight concern about the relative lack of goals in games.Yes, they have won the last 4, but 3 1-0's do not make them strong backing material as it can be nervy for the punter.
Willem II have won 1 of their last 12, and that was a friendly, they have only drawn 2
WWLDD for AZ at home is poor home form in the league.
DLLLL for Willem II away signals why the odds are 1.22 for AZ.
Slight hint of recovery in last 2 aways , 0-0 draw and 2-1 loss ( scored first), prior to these have lost 2-0 and 3-0 scorelines away.
1.15 over 1.5 goals looks safe as the asian handicaps start at +1.5 goals
130pm - PSV v Feyenoord - 1.36 home - top of the pile, unbeaten this season - 4 wins and a draw at home, the draw they were 1-0 up til the 88th minute. Really they should have won.
4 losses and a draw in Feyenoord's last 5 matches signal an out of form side. Close matches against the big boys, lost 1-0 at home to Twente, and 2-1 at home to Ajax. So, away to another of the big boys, we would expect a tight loss.
2 losses and 2 draws away.
130pm - Stoke v Man Utd - 1.69 away - 2 wins, a draw and a loss at home ( 2-1 Spuds) - Stoke remain tough to beat at home. In all matches bar a 1-0 win, Stoke have conceded first so there may be a trading opportunity here by backing United and hoping they make the breakthrough first as has been the case in 7 of Stoke's 8 matches. 5 draws and 3 wins for United , again hint at trading as 4 of the draws have been score draws.
Over 1.5 goals an option.
130pm - Twente v ADO Den Haag - 1.32 home - 5 wins, 4 draws and unbeaten this season.DWDW at home . 7 match unbeaten run for ADO after starting the campaign with 2 losses.WDDWWDW since then. Loads of goals conceded and scored. 4,4,5,4,4,6,5,0,3 Only one game under 2.5 goals. A massive 7 matches over 3.5 goals. 1.16 over 1.5 goals then would have a great chance of coming in.
0,4,4,6,1 goals in Twente's 5 home matches so 3 to 2 in favour of goals.
5pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Sibenik - 1.2 home - The fact Sibenik won the last head to head means it is too risky for me.
615pm - Sp Lisbon v Rio Ave - 1.35 home - 3 draws , 2 losses, 2 wins and nowhere near where they should be in this league, Sporting are in poor form. WDD at home. Draws included a 0-0 and 1-1. Sporting have scored 0,0,1,1 in last 4 matches so cause for concern.
4 losses and 3 draws for Rio Ave,DLL away from home and last 2 matches have been 1-0, and 0-0. This could be a tight match? -
7pm - Lokomotiv Sofia v Vidima Rakovski - 1.19 homeaway side only won 1 in last 12, lost their last 5.
730pm - Anderlecht v Westerlo - 1.26 home - 6/6 in head to heads
4 wins and a 0-0 draw at home - score plenty usually at home. Westerloo have won their last 2 away matches 2-1 so caution perhaps? Given the amount Anderlecht score at home usually, back them, hope they score first and trade out.
245 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Wishfull Thinking, 4/1 Adams Island, 5/1 Cool Friend, Galaxy Rock.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WISHFULL THINKING, rated 143 over hurdles, has the potential to develop into a smart novice chaser this term and looks the one to beat granted a decent round of jumping. |
What we are seeing at present - newcomers to jumps or newcomers to chases. 4 horses and 2 places.
325 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Green To Gold, 7/1 Flight Control, 8/1 Black Rock Lake, Charger, 9/1 Francis Du Mesnil, 10/1 Fearnwood Girl, 12/1 Gentleman Jim, 16/1 Sainte Kadette, 20/1 A Thousand Men, Emerson Breeze, 25/1 Anuta Island, Blue Belle Polka, Dark Arctic, Stonehatchetmad, Via Mantua, 33/1 Enfield Chase.
Massive price gapper reflected in the live betting as well.Green to Gold has won his last 2 handicap hurdles, one of which was a 25 runner affair.
Slight concern with the change to a 4 lb claimer. AS this is a handicap though, we have the relative luxury of 4 places .
415 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 National Heritage, 11/4 Cloonavery, 9/2 Wild Side Of Life, 6/1 Istron Bay, 10/1 Quintus, 14/1 Humbel Lad, 16/1 Mr Bond, 20/1 Owner Occupier, Poacher´s Dream,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Very little positive to say about this bunch. CLOONAVERY has at least run to form the last twice and has placed chase form off a similar mark so this may finally be his day. A poor race but a big market mover in QUintus, all red into 11/4 - unseated rider last time out so the stable expecting something with a clear round? SHORTLIST 130pm - AZ Alkmaar v Willem II - 1.22 home - poor away side 130pm - Twente v ADO Den Haag - 1.32 home - 1.16 over 1.5 goals. 325 WEXFORD - follow the market here? 4 lb claimer a concern here but 4 places on offer for Green to Gold who has won his last 2 handicap hurdles. - highly illiquid market SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST As above really bar the Wexford race ( would need to look at this nearer the off) |
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