23/10

The horse racing, in the jumps sphere, is open to market moves as the majority of horses make their seasonal returns. We were caught out yesterday in Sean Og's race.

Look like some solid footy alternatives today with Chelsea, Real Madrid, and Luton contenders.

Possible multiple to bump the odds up ( and hedgeble as all matches are in running)

3 Selections Chosen 1 Chelsea v Wolves (Backing Chelsea @ 1.11) 2 Zaragoza v Barcelona (Laying Zaragoza @ 15.1) 3 Real Madrid v Santander (Backing Real Madrid @ 1.13)

Trebles Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2 and 3 1.36 £100.00 £36.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: £100.00 Your total potential win: £36.00 Submit your bet(s) now?

*****ONE A DAY - 3pm - Chelsea v Wolverhampton Wanderers - BAck Chelsea in the Match odds at 1.14*****


Enhance bet with over 2.5 goals to trade?




I thought I would try the horses yesterday despite solid football bets and it didn't come off as Sean Og clattered a fence and lost momentum. Also, the winner was a 16/1 system bet, Sean Og drifted from 1.18 to 1.32 at the off ( and down to 1.18 again in running for traders) and I could not relate that to you alas .
In the meantime , all football mentions I think scored a minimum of 5 goals and cruised to victory, Waalwijk and Turkey the choices.

115pm - Spartak Nalchik v Tomsk - 1.22 home - in running - 4 head to heads over the years have been 1-0's and a single 1-1 and a 3-0 home win for Spartak in 2009. Concern with so many 1-0's ( and Tomsk won 3 of those). Spartak have lost 4 of their last 5 , and Tomsk have lost 3 and drawn 1 of their last 5. Not really a 1.22 I can have any real confidence in. I am wondering why it is 1.22 for Spartak.
Spartak have lost their last 2 home matches, albeit against Zenit St Petersburg and Spartak Moscow and prior to these 2, they won 7 and drew 2 at home.
Tomsk have lost their last 6 away matches, and note the scorelines, 3 2-1's, a 1-0, 2-0 loss to Zenit and 4-2 loss to Spartak Moscow.
Hint that they can keep it tight away from home.
2pm - Shakhtar v Vorskla - 1.23 home - another with 5 1-0's and a 1-1 in head to heads - Shaktar unbeaten in last 8 league matches, winning 7 and drawing 1. Have won their last 11 matches at home. Went through a sticky patch in September with 1-0's which are always precarious scorelines.Since then they have scored 4 and 2 in the league. Vorskla have only won 1 in their last 8 league matches, losing 4 and drawing 3.
Could Vorskla be one of those bogey teams for Shaktar? I would consider covering the 0-0 or even 0-1 to Vorskla.

3pm - Cambridge Utd v Lewes - 1.36 home - conference v conference south in this Cup match. Lewes have lost their last 8 in the conference south.Cambridge have only won 1 in their last 6 so are not in the best of health either.
3pm - Chelsea v Wolves - 1.14 home - in running - Chelsea have won their last 9 league matches at home ( could be more but my records do not go back that long)
6,2,4,2 goals so far for Chelsea at home this season without conceding a goal. So, if they score today, the suggestion is that they will win. Wolves have not won any of their last 9 matches, drawing 5 and losing 4 matches. They have lost 3 and drawn 1 away from home. 1.14 normally signals 2, 3 goal victory.
3pm - Luton v St Albans - 1.22 home - another cup match - conference v conference south. 4 wins in last 5 for Luton in all matches and at home too.St Albans have only won one of their last 12 matches, drawing 6. 6 draws, a win and a loss away from home sounds a slight note of caution. I am unsure how far inferior the conference south is to the Conference.
5pm - Zaragoza v Barcelona - 1.29 away - in running - Barca have won the most recent 4 head to heads, scoring 6 and 4 in the last 2 matches. Zaragoza have not won any of their last 7 league matches, LDLDLLD Zaragoza have only lost 3 of their last 10 league home matches, to Barca, Real Madrid and Malaga ( 3-5) - so it would seem that Barca and Real Madrid are , historically, a step too far.
4 draws in last 6 matches should signal a slight element of caution.
5 wins and a draw for Barca since the debacle of Hercules.In the 1-1 draw, Barca scored first and should have won.
Barca have won their last 5 aways in the league,
7pm - Real Madrid v Santander - 1.16 home - in running - 6/6 in head to heads to Real Madrid include 2 1-0 home wins in 2009 - slight caution? But why, then, the 1.16 odds which signal goals.
Won 10 and drawn 2 of their last 12 matches.
Won 11 and lost 1 of last 12 at home. Loss came against Barcelona in April 2010.
Santander have only won 1 of their last 12 matches.1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 losses away for Santander so far this season against highflying Villareal, Valencia and a draw against Sevilla. Tight away so far this season and the 1-0 Valencia loss could be reflective of today's match. Real look layable at 1.16 until , I expect, the inevitable breakthrough goal.
Back Real Madrid and 0-0 cover?

730pm - San Marino U17 v Netherlands U17 - 1.03 away

225 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Galtymore Lad, 3/1 Signs In The Sand, 9/2 Cape To Rio, 6/1 Sharnberry, 8/1 Earl Of Leitrim, 10/1 Invincible Ridge, 25/1 Night Carnation, 50/1 Belle Bayardo, 66/1 Little Lion Man.

DIOMED VERDICT: Connections seem to have found the key to Signs In The Sand but he may not find it easy to dominate at this level and needs to raise his game if he is to see off GALTYMORE LAD whose sales race seconds to Wootton Bassett have been well advertised.Sharnberry could prove the pick of the others.

There seems to be no grey areas in listed races. Either the horse runs how the odds suggest or he does a Delegator! Here Galtymore Lad is the favourite, all red and shortened this morning.
Racing solely over 6 and 7 furlongs " likely to be very hard to beat" and Fallon on board, we must remember in listed races, none can be readily dismissed and you may get the odd Red Jazz ( 2nd at 16/1 in a recent listed race!)

250 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Hibiki, 7/2 Tri Nations, 8/1 Musashi, Tayarat, War Party, 10/1 Feeling, 16/1 Ladies Best, Lindsay´s Dream, 25/1 Optimaxer, The Lemonpie.

DIOMED VERDICT: TRI NATIONS is not always the hardiest of battlers but has managed to win twice this year and may do so again.

Selling hurdle sees Hibiki strong at the head of the market, all red and evens.

510 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Medermit, 5/2 Rock Noir, 8/1 Wessex King, 100/1 Alaskan Prince.

DIOMED VERDICT: A two-horse race on paper. Rock Noir has a lot to learn about jumping fences judged on his Huntingdon display and MEDERMIT is expected to have his measure barring accidents.

Medermit 4/9 now in an apparent 2 horse race - 2 miles novices chase ." barring accidents " as ever

645 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Buddy Miracle, 5/2 Arowana, 4/1 Kissing Clara, 8/1 Indian Shuffle, War Painter, 16/1 Woop Woop, 20/1 Amore Et Labore, King Bling, 100/1 Hannah Cann.

DIOMED VERDICT: AROWANA is entitled to come on a good deal for her recent reappearance and she gets the vote in a weak maiden. War painter massive mover and debutant here. SHORTLIST 2pm - Shakhtar v Vorskla - 1.23 home - will home form prevail despite ultra tight head to heads? Consideration for an insurance bet on 0-1 to Vorskla or 0-0 as Vorskla could be a bogey team. 3pm - Luton v St Albans - 1.22 home - cup match sees in form conference side versus out of form conference south side. 3pm - Chelsea v Wolves - 1.14 home - Wolves are in very poor form indeed , while Chelsea at home are imperious. Have not failed when this price for some time. 5pm - Zaragoza v Barcelona - 1.29 away - head to heads emphatic. Good home form for Zaragoza until, generally, they meet the big boys. 7pm - Real Madrid v Santander - 1.16 home - I can envision a frustrating night tonight which makes the 1.16 unappealing . I would consider Real in the match odds at a higher price later in the game if the game remains tight for a period. Santander have faced 2 in form sides, losing 1-0 to Valencia ( tight match) and 1-1 v Villareal who have also started the season well. Expect Real to win eventually I would suspect.

225 DONCASTER - Galtymore Lad is the all red in this listed race, and we must remember the inherent competitive nature of listed races mean the horse is always vulnerable.
1.22 to place

510 AINTREE - 2 horse race? But remember in these obstacles, like Sean Og, one mistake and the odds are thrown out of the window. 1.13 and 1.3 for the front 2 but this early season sees horses returning from long lay offs.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

THe in running matches today are likely to be tight ( I am talking about Barca and Real Madrid so their initial odds are unappealing in the face of possible rise in price as the game remains 0-0.

3pm - Chelsea v Wolves - 1.14 home - should be an easy home win against a Wolves side in trouble this season and a home side 4/4

3pm - Luton v St Albans - 1.22 home - hope the away side's very poor form remains. Conference v Conference south

5pm - Zaragoza v Barcelona - 1.29 away - likely to succumb eventually - 2 home draws on the trot for Zaragoza

7pm - Real Madrid v Santander - 1.16 home - spectacular home form and a price likely to rise. Look at Santander's tight away performances against high flyers Valencia/Villareal and we can expect Real to be frustrated until breaking through. Valencia won 3-0 away to Racing. Real could match that.