Arsenal ladies are likely to make home advantage count and goals would be my bet here if the markets become liquid. Over 2.5 goals likely to come in.
A no bet day for me today, despite the strong looking Punchestown shorties. Were I to speculate, well then China Rock in the 445 Punchestown should be at the business end ( this is a chase though so will need to complete)
Job done with a 2nd place in the 740 .
Just something for you to watch out for. Horses like Nicene Creed and Badeel yesterday were hinting at shortening in the morning. How? Well, at http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk/ , their odds were all red.
These 2 horses shortened considerably throughout the day so is something that traders can impliment.
2pm - Arsenal (W) v ZFK Masinac (W) - 1.06 - Women's Champions League here and the Arsenal woman's team may include Manuel Almunia. This is the only match on the Thursday coupon on Betfair as far as I can see!
And that is it with the football. As ever, with a price like this, we should expect goals.ASian handicap starts at +2 . 1.15 over 2.5 goals but very illiquid on betfair. Not caught the punters' imaginations just yet.
220 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Northern Lad, 7/1 Himitas, 8/1 Bollywood, 9/1 Rash Moment, 14/1 Heir To Be, Singapore Harbour, 16/1 Vacario, 20/1 Rapid Return, 33/1 Laureus.
| DIOMED VERDICT: NORTHERN LAD is hard to oppose after last week's success. |
Only 4 under 16/1 here and Northern Lad escapes a penalty for an easy hurdles win last time out. McCoy on today and his record when chosen by me is shocking.
240 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Elas Diamond, 3/1 Madison Square, 9/2 Watercourse, 8/1 Mulaqen, Susan Stroman, 12/1 Lordofthehouse, 25/1 Bobby Dazzler, X Rated, 50/1 Kepler´s Law, 100/1 Hawridge Knight, Rattleyurjewellery.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Market confidence behind Madison Square or Watercourse would be revealing but there was a good deal to like about the Newmarket debut second of ELAS DIAMOND and she can go one better. |
Elas Diamond is now odds on and has Ryan Moore to assist, but this is a one time out 2 year old facing a number of debutants in what looks a tricky punting day.
310 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Fimias, 11/2 Regimental, 8/1 Fastada, Sky Diamond, 10/1 Barista, Marc De Savoie, Plea, 12/1 Mirabile Visu, 14/1 Classic Voice, Ninfea, 16/1 Mark Harbour, 20/1 Beer Flush, Hero From Zero, 25/1 Little Miss Take, Oetzi, 33/1 C P Joe, Mollyow
| DIOMED VERDICT: The step up to 1m is expected to suit FIMIAS and he can open his account at the expense of Regimental and Sky Diamond. |
16 2 year olds - exactly what I need today!
Fimias is all red, 7/4 and has Fallon up who rides well for Cumani. Plea is the other market mover at time of writing.
6644 form - last 3 runs have been on all weather. Stepping up to a mile today.1/2 length, neck and short head 4th last time out makes that 4th look more impressive.
315 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Luska Lad, 4/1 Baron De´L, 10/1 Der Spieler, 12/1 Imperial Shabra, 33/1 Winner Takes Itall.
2 places so really we should be expecting Luska Lad to win. Not run since Punchestown in April.Luska is a group 1 and 2 hurdler.
400 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Gakalina, 3/1 Strictly Lambada, 7/2 Bombadero, Momkinzain, 7/1 Paloma Blanca, 25/1 Precious Spring, 50/1 Blackmore, 66/1 Velvet Nayef, 100/1 Beseech, Princeofthedesert, Sing Of Run.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GAKALINA is at least going the right way and she is taken to reverse previous form with Strictly Lambada. |
5 horses under 33/1 the ones who should place in the first 3 but this is tight.4 horses between 11/4 and 7/2!!
415 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Loosen My Load, 5/1 Darceys Dancer, 8/1 Norther Bay, Strongpoint, 16/1 Seeability.
Last 2 wins have been chase wins under today's jockey for Loosen my Load.
445 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Sizing Europe, 7/4 China Rock, 7/1 Siegemaster, 8/1 Jadanli.
2 horse race if they complete?
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Pearl Ice, 3/1 Blowing Bubbles, Three Sparrows, 8/1 Saskia´s Dream, 66/1 Dust Cloud, Fajer Al Kuwait, Shutupandrive.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PEARL ICE ran a race full of promise at Lingfield earlier in the month and he shouldn't be long in going one better. |
Only 4 under 50/1 for 2 places
SHORTLIST
A difficult day today. We have predominantly 2 year olds and I hope you have seen how unreliable they are generally ( I do acknowledge that some do as expected but they can throw in sudden and unexpected bad runs just when you think they are backable -and I'm talking about the place only market !)
2pm - Arsenal (W) v ZFK Masinac (W) - 1.06 - follow the odds here with the Arsenal ladies at home. I would opt for goals here as the ladies keepers tend to be a bit keystone cops. Illiquid betting market on Betfair as noone seems interested.
310 NOTTINGHAM - Fimias is well backed into 7/4 and is shortlisted really based on the fact he has had 4 runs and has Fallon onboard who is in solid form.
16 runners and 16 2 year olds the concern here.
All of the Punchestown races are 2 the place jumps races so we must presume the horses will complete.
315PUNCHESTOWN - Luskas Lad has a 174 day absence to overcome and concerns over the faster ground ( the weather in Ireland this week has been superb )
415 PUNCHESTOWN - now a 4 horse race for 2 places and Loosen My Load is another ultra shortie.
445 PUNCHESTOWN - Sizing Europe up in trip for his seasonal bow over the chase fences. 4 horses and 2 places. China Rock perhaps the value place only bet if Sizing underperforms. Has the assistance of Ruby Walsh.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
2pm - Arsenal (W) v ZFK Masinac (W) - 1.06 - if the market was liquid enough, over 2.5 goals would be a good bet here. I don't thing the market is likely to be liquid.
Luska lad is 1.09 to place, Loosen my load is 1.1 to place, while Sizing Europe is 1.18 to place ( illiquid market) and China Rock is 1.43 ( illiquid at present)
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