240 NOTTINGHAM I would risk Academy but with trading in mind in running.
Football wise, and my strongest bets would be Twente, Lazio , Anderlecht and PSV with the Greek sides away obvious contenders for enhanced goals bets to me
Anderlecht not in running, and of the 3 left Lazio looks the strongest bet with home advantage. But will they play a first team? Twente looks the next best against a side yet to win this season. PSV look next best against a side who lost 4-1 last twice.
*****ONE A DAY 8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - back Lazio in the match odds at 1.29*****
Horse racing alternative? Fremen to place in a race where only 3 are under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1
87th minute equaliser made a losing bet but a winning trading bet.
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A pity I did not insist upon trading this. I traded out with marginal gain as early as possible. It is just a habit I have. I do hope some did trade out, as there was ample time to do so .
Whenever I mention " in running" in a football match, it is deliberate, because we can manage our positions. Yesterday, 1-0 for a concerted period for a 1.18 shot should have been a worry particularly as they were at home.1.18 shots should win by 2 or 3.
A losing bet all the same and a great frustration.
230pm - Varde v AGF - 1.36 away - just mention AGF as I have been incidentally following them,Denmark 2 Division west v Denmark 1 Division. AGF are flying in the latter division. IN RUNNING - I do not know whether a weakened side will be played etc so we are really betting blind and putting faith in the odds.
3pm - Kozani v Panathinaikos - 1.12 away - IN RUNNING - Greek Ethniki C v top flight and 1.12 indicates goals. But Pana have only scored 2 in their last 3 in the league. Greeks and goals do not generally fit together. That said, the gulf in class could change this?
Asian handicap starts at 2 and over 2.5 goals is a healthy 1.64 ( they know it's the Greeks I suppose) - could be scope to trade this 1.64 as Pana should score at least 2 with a first team
3pm - Partizan Belgrade v FK Proleter - 1.13 home - just match odds available and illiquid betting market.
4pm - Hajduk Split v Istra - 1.24 home - another just match odds and an illiquid market
4pm - Portugal U17 v N Ireland U17 - 1.34 home - 3,2,5,7,2 the number of goals scored in Portugal's last 5 matches. Not in running. Northern Ireland beat Azerbaijan 6-0 -Portugal beat them 2-0 so Northern Ireland could score.
6pm - Ajax v Heerenveen - 1.25 home -LEAGUE MATCH IN RUNNING - Ajax have won the last 2 head to heads, but lost the 2 prior to those in 2009. 4 wins and a loss at home this season for Ajax. Slight concern with 2 of last 3 results - 2-1 home to Utrecht loss and 2-2 draw away at Excelsior ( with the latter were 2-0 down and a man down too)
Priced to win tonight. DDLL away for Heerenveen this season. 0-0 draw away to Twente signals potential to shut Ajax out, but then lost 3-1 to PSV at home, and the odds suggest the latter scoreline is the more expected.
Are Ajax faltering with a loss and draw in their last 3? They were superb last season.
6pm - Ilioupolis v Olympiakos - 1.13 away - Greek Cup IN RUNNING - +2.5 goals asian handicap start. Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 ( illiquid market) again scope for trading if we can trust the odds, the asian quote, and Oly putting out a strong side.
630pm - Gent v Tienen - 1.22 home - Belgian Cup not in running.Both teams in poor recent form.
7pm - FC Copenhagen v AC Horsens - 1.28 home - not in running. Danish Cup match - Copenhagen have won the last 4 head to heads. 2 division 1 sides -can we trust team selection?
7pm - UD Logrones v Valencia - 1.49 away - a big price if Valencia take this with a semblance of interest. Segunda B Grupo 2 v leading lights in La Liga. Markets envision a tight match, and that can only mean Valencia will be fielding a weakened side. IN RUNNING.
7pm - Willem II v Twente - 1.33 away - home side have lost 9 and drawn 1 this season in the league. IN RUNNING - Have lost all 4 at home. 3,8,3,3,2,6,3,0,6,3 the number of goals in each of Willem's matches this season. Only once none, and only twice under 3.
DWWDW for Twente away from home. Unbeaten all season. 2 0-0's and a 1-0 away from home might signal a problem with goal scoring but 3-0 and 2-1 away in 2 other matches prove they can when they want to. Tempting odds given Willem II have been woeful and Twente would want to continue this unbeaten run this season.Along with PSV, they are the only unbeaten side this season.
730pm - URS du Centre v Anderlecht - 1.2 away - not in running- reputation should signal an easy away win in this Belgian Cup.
745pm - Standard v Antwerp - 1.2 home - Belgian Cup again.
8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - 1.29 home - won 6 and drawn 1 of last 7 against Seria B side who have lost 4 of last 5 - in running and good chance if Cup is of interest for Lazio.
8pm - Vitesse v PSV - 1.42 away - WLDDL for Vitesse at home - lost 4-1 in last 2 matches ( home and away) and should be within reach of PSV. Unbeaten this season with 7 wins and 3 draws.
WDDW away from home for PSV. Coming off the back of a 10-0 mauling of Feyenoord last time out.
PSV have scored 10-4-3 in their last 3 matches. A bad time for Vitesse to meet them and the 1.42 tempting with trading in mind.
200 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Parlour Games, 7/2 Ittirad, 5/1 Sea Soldier, 11/2 Conjuror´s Bluff, 10/1 Spifer, 14/1 Lordofthehouse, Romeo Montague, 16/1 Albert Bridge, Benidorm, Szabo´s Destiny, 40/1 Emerald Royal, Ishikawa.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PARLOUR GAMES was a major flop last time but conditions were extremely testing. On his previous debut second in a Yarmouth maiden, he sets a clear standard. |
Sea Soldier is 9/4, all red, and obviously fancied today.
230 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Academy, 5/1 Midlothian, 13/2 Charles Camoin, 9/1 Wayward Glance, 16/1 High Jinx, 25/1 Secret Edge, 28/1 Bollin Harry, 33/1 Invent, 50/1 Look For Love, 66/1 Newgate Dani, 100/1 Our Folly,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Seemingly a straightforward opportunity for ACADEMY to fulfil the abundant promise of last month's Newmarket debut, though the odds are highly likely to be on the skinny side. |
Always a positive when the odds have collapsed to 1/4. Charles Camoin would be my value place only alternative to the obvious Academy. A 2 year old maiden. Ryan Moore was on a similarly priced 2 year old yesterday and brought him home.
240 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fremen, 7/2 Abbondanza, Opus Maximus, 7/1 Ensnare, 14/1 Kimberley Downs, King Of The Moors, Ra Junior, 33/1 Beverly Hill Billy, Finsbury, Rosbertini, Walleyd, 100/1 Anna´s Boy, Balance On Time.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FREMEN (nap) is a prolific winner in this type of event and can notch his fifth C&D win of the year. |
4th fav a non runner exaggerates the difference between the front 3 and the rest. Only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1. Trust Fremen? Ultra consistent placer.
450 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Colour Scheme, 11/4 Point North, 4/1 Chiefdom Prince, 12/1 Fama Mac, 16/1 Handsome King, Penbryn, 20/1 Yensi, 25/1 Amy Thorpe, Drivemode, 33/1 Great Show, Saremma, 40/1 Rustic Deacon, 66/1 Spacecraft.
| DIOMED VERDICT: POINT NORTH can take this. |
Another maiden and the front 3 cannot be split. All 2/1 Choose the biggest priced in the place market and hope they dominate..
810 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wallis, 5/1 Millden, 6/1 Estonia, Hippique, 10/1 Hidden Destiny, Ruler´s Honour, 16/1 Jubilant Lady, 20/1 Ice Road Trucker, Outshine, 25/1 Cane Cat, 33/1 Dolly Will Do,
| DIOMED VERDICT: MILLDEN is bred to be a useful sprinter and gets the nod in a modest maiden. |
Fallon /Cumani odds on fav in this maiden has Kempton experience.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Kozani v Panathinaikos - 1.12 away
6pm - Ilioupolis v Olympiakos - 1.13 away
7pm - UD Logrones v Valencia - 1.49 away - flying in the league - a strong team will make this price very tempting but I have no team news now.
7pm - Willem II v Twente - 1.33 away
730pm - URS du Centre v Anderlecht - 1.2 away - anything near a first team and free scoring Anderlecht will win easily. NOT IN RUNNING
8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - 1.29 home - in form Seria A at home v out of for Seria B - good odds.
8pm - Vitesse v PSV - 1.42 away - tradeable price given PSV have scored 10-4-3 in last 3 and Vitesse have lost 4-1 in last 2.
230 NOTTINGHAM - Academy would have to be a win only bet at 1.27 with Ryan Moore on board. Charles Camoin at 1.76 to place is very interesting - a market mover too and value place bet.
240 MUSS - can Fremen continue his strong form? 1.2 to place
810 KEMPTON - need a look nearer the off.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Kozani v Panathinaikos - 1.12 away
6pm - Ilioupolis v Olympiakos - 1.13 away
7pm - Willem II v Twente - 1.33 away - Willem II just keep losing and are playing title contenders today.
730pm - URS du Centre v Anderlecht - 1.2 away - although not in running, Anderlecht dominate in Belgium and should win this Cup match.
8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - 1.29 home - looks a great bet this one with a strong Lazio team selected - in form Seria A v out of form Seria B.
8pm - Vitesse v PSV - 1.42 away - conceded 8 in last 2 v scored 17 in last 3 ( 10 in last match)
230 NOTT - Academy to win only - always risky backing 2 year olds but a carbon copy of a horse Ryan Moore booted home yesterday in heavy.
240 MUSS- Fremen and Opus Maximus should dominate ( latter Fanning/Johnston)
1.2 and 1.39 to place
Possible multiple
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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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