back-lay-trade-horses-football: 2/10

Soft ground at Epsom and Newmarket puts me off, as do generally big fields elsewhere.
Celtic I see as the strongest bet of the day. Must win their home matches.

***** ONE A DAY - 3pm - Celtic v Hamilton - back Celtic in match odds at 1.18*****

Admira Wacker won although not as convincingly as I wanted.
Gito Hernando - Fallon is not going all the way to Dundalk for his sole ride there to be a loser.

12pm - Hearts v Rangers - 1.71 away - usually these prices signal a struggle but the Old Firm keep winning at these prices. 5 wins and a draw in head to heads in 2010 and 2009. Have won both away fixtures at Hearts.
Rangers are scoring 2,3,2,2,4,3 so far in the league this season. They will be aware that Celtic are likely to win at home this afternoon, so a win is a must .3 away wins in the league so far for Rangers. I would suspect they are backable at 1.71 to trade should they lead at any stage. I would also look to enhance bet should Hearts take the lead.
2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses for Hearts so far this season. They played Celtic at home and lost 3-0. This should give us an idea of what is expected from Rangers ( although Rangers are not at home)
2 draws and a loss for Hearts at home should give Rangers backers some confidence.
1pm - Offenbach v W Bremen-A - 1.41 home - 3rd tier of German football. Werder only won 2 of last 12. Offenbach emphatic 4-0 last time head to head, but I know little of German Division 3.
2pm - Brabrand v Tjorring - 1.36 home - Danish 3rd tier and Brabrand are hardly in form themselves
2pm - Slavia Sofia v Vidima Rakovski - 1.21 home - Bulgarian top tier. Match odds only on Betfair. 3 draws, 5 losses and a win for Vidima. Last met in head to heads in 2008 which hints that Vidima are newly promoted. 6 game winning streak for Slavia ended by a loss away in last match ( 2-1)
Slavia have won their last 4 at home.
Vidima have LDL for their last 3 league aways, and conceded 6 away in their last match.

230pm - Jagodina v Cukaricki - 1.36 home - remember Cukaricki - this is the team who have not scored this season yet. Like the game where we opposed Cukaricki before, the idea here is that Jagodina score and Cukaricki still find it difficult!
Head to heads a concern though. Cukaricki have won 3 of the last 4 in 2010 and 2009.
3pm - AFC Wimbledon v Forest Green - 1.39 home - 2-0 and 5-2 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads.
LLLLDLD away performance for Forest Green. In 5 of last 6 aways, they have conceded 3 or more.
5 wins and a draw at home for AFC Wimbledon and they have scored a minimum of 2 in each of those matches.

3pm - Betis v Ponferradina - 1.38 home - 4 wins and a loss for Betis so far. Have won both home matches so far this season.Ponf have 2 draws and 4 losses, and have lost both away matches 2-0 this season. No head to heads imply Ponf are newcomers.
3pm - Celtic v Hamilton - 1.18 home - like Rangers, Celtic are 100% so far this season and have scored 3,3,2 so far at home. Closest home match latest was 2-1 win v Hibs.
Hamilton so far have lost 3, drawn 2 and won 1.
Away from home, they have lost 1, drawn 1, won 1.
They played Rangers at home and lost 2-1 so can put up a fight. Asian handicap begins at +2 for Celtic which signals market makers' extreme confidence in an easy home win.
3pm - Fleetwood Town v Histon - 1.32 home - Histon have lost 7 and won 1 of their last 8 matches. Fleetwood are unbeaten in their last 7 matches, winning 5 of them.
3pm - Helsingborgs v GAIS - 1.44 home - have won 11 and drawn 1 at home this season so rock solid. Gais have lost 8 away, won 3 and drawn 1.
Head to heads point to potentially tight fixture - 0-0, 1-0 to Gais ( both away games for Helsingsborg) in 2010 and 2009 but will the home form of Helsingsborg negate this?
3pm - Sunderland v Man Utd - 1.79 away - 3 out of 3 away draws for United so far this season 3-3, 2-2, 3-3.
3,2,3,3,3,2 the number of goals United have scored this season . Very consistent.
Surely this score draw sequence has a chance of ending today?
BUT this is Sunderland who have 3 score draws on the trot, score draws against Arsenal and Liverpool and a home win against Man City.
A very interesting game sequencially. It indicates a draw, but these sequences do end eventually. If we predict a score draw, then over 1.5 goals is obvious at 1.35
315pm - Olympiakos v Olympiakos Volos - 1.22 home LWWW for Olympiakos this season includes 2-0 and 3-0 home wins.
2 wins, a draw and a loss for Volos this season includes tight away matches 1-0 and 1-1.
+ 2 on the asian handicaps signals home dominance.
5pm - Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi - 1.36 home - Fenerbahce have scored 3 in their last 3 home head to heads with Gencler.2 wins and a draw at home so far. Fenerbache drew with Besiktas at home, not altogether unexpected and scored 4 on 2 occasions .
DLL for Gencler away from home , includes 2 games where they conceded 3 ( ties in with head to heads for Fener at home)
7pm - KV Kortrijk v Eupen - 1.46 home - Eupen are struggling - 8 losses and a 0-0 draw this season.
Kortrijk have won 3 and lost 1 at home. 4 losses and a win in their last 5 signals that Kortrijk are not in the best of form but are playing a team who cannot cope with the top flight
9pm - Valencia v Ath Bilbao - 1.71 home - 4 wins and a draw and sitting top of La Liga. Valencia have won last 3 head to heads ( last 2 at home 2-0)
Valencia have scored first in 4 of their 5 matches this season so perhaps back them at 1.71 and hope they score first again.
WD so far away for Ath Bilbao

155 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Together, 11/2 Tale Untold, 8/1 I Love Me, 10/1 Musharakaat, 12/1 Mohedian Lady, Secret Love, 14/1 Aneedah, Masaya, Rumh, 16/1 Queen Of Spain, 20/1 Apace, Madany, 25/1 Kalahaag, 33/1 Blessed Biata, Daffydowndilly, Illandrane, 40/1 Lucky Legs, 50/1 Hayaku, Simayill, 66/1 Vita Lika,

DIOMED VERDICT: TOGETHER has been on the premises in Group 1 company the last twice, going down narrowly to leading 2yo filly White Moonstone in the Fillies' Mile at Ascot last weekend, and should take plenty of beating on these terms

Like the last 2 days, we have a prominent price gapper. Here it is Together, who is all red and backed. Soft ground the concern here. He is an Irish horse so should handle the ground.
7/4 ( all red) - - - - - 8/1 is quite a price gap for such a high class race.

210 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Calypso Magic, 5/2 Yas Marina, 11/4 Zoowraa, 6/1 Roninski, 16/1 Sokolka, 20/1 Tahitian Princess, 25/1 Hot Toddie, 28/1 A Southside Boy, Bon Appetit, Danbrook, Oakwell, 40/1 Zoom In, 50/1 Inca Blue, 66/1 Kian´s Delight, Maunby Rumba, Meniscus.

DIOMED VERDICT: Michael Jarvis's nicely bred filly ZOOWRAA is taken to make a winning debut.

Wasn't Calypso Magic a strong mention recently? 3 2nd places now - it's one of those 2 year olds who has the obvious form , but will he throw in a stinker?

Up to 7 furlongs today. A reason to oppose?

230 GOWRAN PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sir Vincent, 9/2 Celtic Wish, 5/1 Mister Castlefield, 7/1 Father Shine, Toomes Return, 10/1 Cool Oscar, 14/1 Career Move, Chancy Lady, Stretch Junior, 16/1 Stowaway Pearl, 20/1 Cahercailin, Miracle House, Sea Legend, Supreme Li, 25/1 Lady Of Synone, 33/1 Controversial, Dohora Lady, Dubhquel, Grove Dale, Unquestionable,

Walsh/Mullins on Sir Vincent , he has been backed

435 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kingsfort, 7/2 Skysurfers, 11/2 Inler, 13/2 Yaa Wayl, 10/1 Arry´s Orse, 12/1 Sir Gerry, 14/1 Harrison George, 16/1 Evens And Odds, 20/1 Aldovrandi, 28/1 Welsh Emperor, 40/1 Eton Rifles.

DIOMED VERDICT: Godolphin has won three of the last six runnings and one-time leading Guineas fancy KINGSFORT must have a good chance of enhancing that record if fully recovered from his ankle injury. The unbeaten colt is a Group 1 winner without a penalty.

Group 1 winner without a penalty for a stable with a 50% win ratio in last 6 years in this race. Must be of interest with Ted Durcan up.

500 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 All Action, 9/4 Momkinzain, 100/30 Piano, 9/2 Aneel, 16/1 Present Story, 40/1 Rhythm Stick, Tristar Way.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALL ACTION has been expensive to follow but his form stacks up quite well and he looks worth another chance.

Only 5 runners now and 2 horses are 14/1 and 33/1 and can hopefully be discounted. This could leave 3 horses for 2 places and the favourite an obvious place only chance. Soft ground a slight concern. I don't know how soft it is at time of writing (i.e. will it turn heavy as the day progresses?)

530 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 No Complaining, 7/2 Jovial, 11/2 Wavertree Bounty, 7/1 Franki J, 9/1 Empress Leizu, 12/1 Asterales, 14/1 Second Brook, 25/1 Avon Castle, Elegant Dancer, 33/1 Sandy Toes, 40/1 Patricks Lodge.

DIOMED VERDICT: NO COMPLAINING bumped into a progressive rival last time but should be hard to beat in this company.