*****ONE A DAY 455 FAKENHAM - Sean Og to place***** 1.18 currently. Plenty of time to get the bet on. For instance , yesterday, Silverhand was 1.13 at the off, which, for a 1/3 shot, was good.
No probs from Man City, and thankfully there was no liquidity in the San Marino match as Ukraine under 17's only managed a solitary goal.
4pm - Portugal U17 v Azerbaijan U17 - 1.16 home - why make life difficult? Find a short price and justify the odds. Remember these are 80 minute games - something I forgot yesterday. Portugal have lost 3 and won 1 of their last 4, the win was 3-2 against Australia. Are they on the ropes at present? Opponents were Turkey, Spain and France.
Prior to this, they won 5 and drew 3 of their 8 matches.
Azerbaijan have only won 2 of their last 12 matches, drawing 1 and losing 9. They have lost their last 4 matches. Azerbaijan have only really, bar Germany, been playing eastern european teams so it is hard to compare the 2 teams' relative form, suffice to say the market is heavily in favour of the Pork and Cheese.
Illiquid on Betfair and not in running.
5pm - Turkey U19 v Kazakhstan U19 - 1.22 home - The Kazak's most recent win was 2-1 against Andorra, and it was Andorra who scored first!! This should tell you the level of the Kazaks. Other wins came against Wales in 2007 and Greece in 2006 so are not really relevant.The Kazaks have only played a single game in 2010 as compared against Turkey who have played 9 in 2010 so are match fit.
Turkey have lost 4 of their last 12, to Poland, Spain, Italy and England - worthy teams to lose against.
Again not in running so only match odds and 2.5 goals market to work with.
7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Emmen - 1.33 home - Emmen I think are a promoted side as head to heads end in 2005. Emmen have only won 1 game so far this Division 2 season and that was 3-1 away to Fortuna Sittard.
They have drawn 2 of their last 3, so a sign of change? But they drew 1-1 with Almere City who Sparta beat 12-1.
Emmen have played 5 games away from home, losing 2, winning 1 and drawing 2 so they seem to have a game plan away from home. The merits of that opposition compared to Sparta ? Well they all seem to be in the bottom 1/3rd of the league!
3 losses, 3 draws and 2 wins thus far for Sparta is not really good enough for them.
3 wins and 2 draws at home for Sparta - one of those draws was a 3-3 draw where Sparta were 3-1 up, so this should really have been converted into a win.
On 4 out of 5 occasions at home, Sparta have scored 3 or more ( once 12 v Almere!!)
Again, not in running which is a pity , just match odds and 2.5 goals markets.
7pm - Waalwijk v Almere - 1.22 home - unbeaten this season so far, Waalwijk are, alarmingly for them, drawing too many. 5 draws and 4 wins. 4 of the draws have been score draws so perhaps there is an air of vulnerability at the back?
All of the draws have come against current top 8 sides . 2 home draws came against 2nd and 4th in the league.
Almere sit 2nd from bottom. 3 away losses and one away win so far this season. The away win was 4-2 against current 4th placed Helmond Sport.
Every side so far has scored against Almere and Waalwijk are more than capable of continuing this.
On 6 occasions this season, Waalwijk have scored 2 or more goals. Almere have just conceded 6 at home, so it looks as if the home side here can breach them. The question is, with their drawitis, whether they can turn a goal into a win. Again, not in running.
745pm - Cork City FORAS v Salthill Devon - 1.16 home 3-1 and 1-0 to Cork in head to heads. Salthill have not won any of their last 12, and are on a 5 game losing streak.
Cork have faltered a bit lately with 2 losses in their last 3 alternated with 2 1-0 wins. Only 2 goals scored in their last 4 games - should we be concerned or was the opposition better than Salthill? 5,3,2,3,2 are the goals conceded by Salthill in their last 5 losses.
155 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fenella Fudge, 11/4 Patriotic, 5/1 Newby Lodge, 6/1 Eternal Ruler, 14/1 Sabratha, 16/1 Sam Nombulist, 33/1 Another For Joe, Sheedal, 66/1 Nay Secret.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FENELLA FUDGE was possibly flattered in the May Hill two starts ago but sets the standard even on her placed form in maidens. Support for either of the newcomers would be significant. |
Another maiden conundrum. Will this one consent to run as per its short head 2nd last time, or suddenly put in a stinker?
Only 3 under 10/1 and Patriotic is a Fanning?Johnston newcomer who could be anything.
310 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Carribs Leap, 7/2 Frontier Spirit, 4/1 Occasionally Yours, 11/2 Morcambe, 7/1 L´Eldorado, 8/1 Astrolibra, 14/1 Erin Dancer, 20/1 Panama Canal.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A fascinating event in which CARRIBS LEAP is preferred to Frontier Spirit and Occasionally Yours. |
Potential v form in the book.
Frontier Spirit has the form, Carribs was impressive in a bumper. I would prefer the former in this hurdles event.
455 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Sean Og, 7/2 Feeling Peckish, 5/1 Great Ocean Road, 11/2 Executive´s Hall, 12/1 Mad Professor, 16/1 Safe Investment, 18/1 Reelwill, 33/1 Devilfishpoker Com.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SEAN OG cruised clear when finally off the mark on Monday and has strong claims of defying a penalty and making it 2-2 for Tim Vaughan. |
Sean Og has a good chance of placing after successfully winning a chase last time under today's jockey.
815 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Plutocraft, 4/1 Hill Tribe, 9/2 Resuscitator, 5/1 Sennybridge, 6/1 Beyond Rubies, 8/1 Swift Return, 25/1 Avon Ferry, 50/1 Arakette, Big Bad Boo, Mr Howe, 100/1 Just Zak, Rhythm Stick,
| DIOMED VERDICT: SENNYBRIDGE could have more to offer at this trip and she gets the tentative vote in a weak race. |
Class 6 all weather maiden - hmmm. But there are only 6 runners under 50/1 here and surely they will be place only contenders. No market movers at present and we would need a look around 8pm.
SHORTLIST
4pm - Portugal U17 v Azerbaijan U17 - 1.16 home - Portugal have lost 3 of last 4 but look at the calibre of opposition! Not in running so bet and hope. I would have preferred an in running ability to trade.
5pm - Turkey U19 v Kazakhstan U19 - 1.22 home - this looks safer. Kazak's have only played one 2010 game so a bit ring rusty? Big win , erm, 2-1 against Andorra does not inspire confidence.
7pm - Waalwijk v Almere - 1.22 home - My choice from the Dutch 2nd flight matches on tonight. I am concerned with 5 draws this season for Waalwijk and I think they should score against Almere. I expect them to win if they score. Preference for in running.
310 FAKENHAM - Frontier spirit would be my preference of the 2 market leaders in this novice's hurdle. 1.28 to place
455 FAKENHAM - Sean Og looks good here as the 2nd favourite is out and Sean has won a chase latest.
" it would be most surprising were he not to go in again before the handicapper has his say." says the analyst of his last race. 1.18 to place in a race of 8 runners ( 2nd fav gone so 7 runners now) and 3 places. Sean Og has been over chase fences last 5 races, and failed only once ( pulled up) 2,3,3,1 in last 4 chases so has strong credentials to place again today
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
No in running football matches puts a slight dampener upon these selections as we just have to bet and hope unlike yesterday where you could have seen Man City 2-0 up and trade out , locking in a profit, for at 2-1 it was looking a little ropey!!
Of the football matches today
5pm - Turkey U19 v Kazakhstan U19 - 1.22 home - The Kazak's look poor and have only played once in 2010 - this should be enough I think for Turkey to take advantage.
7pm - Waalwijk v Almere - 1.22 home - I am concerned by the draw here , and if this was in running, I could react if Waalwijk score first. 5 draws this season, 2 at home. Waalwijk did beat Almere 4-1 in the Cup so should do so this evening.
455 FAKENHAM - Sean Og has these factors in his favour
- placed in first 3 in last 4 chases
- Richard Johnson retains ride after 12 length chase win last time out
- analysis of last race - " it would be most surprising were he not to go in again before the handicapper has his say."
-2nd fav a non runner
-7 runners and 3 places
Negatives?
-chase fences are always a worry but Sean has completed last 4 occasions.
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