Wayward Prince is a proven hurdler tacking chase fences for the first time in a 7 runner race which still pays out 3 places , and with horses priced at 66/1, 25/1 and 20/1 he seems really to have only 3 main rivals. But how will he handle chase fences over 3 miles?
Mossley tackles the easier hurdles fences for the first time today in a race where only 4 are under 25/1 .Not run since June .
Amuse Me is a huge price gapper here, thanks to the defection of the 2nd and 3rd favourites. My concern is the sudden improvement in form after being spanked in last 4 races, he suddenly dots up by 7 lengths last time out. For that reason , he is 4/7 - - - - -10/1 and expected to win easily again.
I am going to chance Wayward Prince today. Yes he is a chase debutant but has shown efficiency and consistency over hurdles. What sways me today is the fact it is only 7 runners and still 3 places, so with a clear round, he should finish in the first 3 if taking to the larger obstacles.
***** ONE A DAY - 155 HUNTINGDON - Wayward Prince to place only*****
Apologies for no message yesterday as I was unable to get to a laptop as my car's fanbelt decided to break in the beauty of the Irish Country side. As I was not a member of the AA, this proved an interesting challenge for me as you can imagine. The irish countryside is beautiful, but I would prefer to explore it in a working car.
It would seem with the football that I missed all of the good opportunities. I do note that Chelsea went a goal down before winning - enhanced bet anyone?
2pm - Dinamo Kiev v Illychivets - 1.2 - tight last head to head in March this year saw 10 man illy get a draw - Dinamo Kiev were away. 3-1, 2-0, 1-0 home results in last 3 head to heads at Kiev. Away fixtures are in marked contrast 1-1, 3-4, 2-3 .
Kiev have won 6 and lost one in the league, and in last 12 ( including Europe) have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 2.
4 game winning streak so far.
WWWDWW at home in league for Kiev.
DLLLLDL away for Illychevets in league.
4pm - Omonia v Ermis - 1.17 home - DDLL in last 4 for Omonia hardly screams out backing them at 1.17 - opposition must be poor? Omonia 2/2 in head to heads in 2010 and 2009.
DLW so far in the league in their 3 home matches.
DLWLWDL so far in the league for Ermis - more unbeaten than beaten
3 1-0's, 2 2-2,s a 2-1 win and an anomolous 4-1 loss nshows that Ermis can keep things tight.
1.17 signals, usually, a 2 or 3 goal home win for omonia but their profile and recent form is poor.
145 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mount Helicon, 11/4 Original Option, 9/2 Tango Knight, 13/2 Moon Over Moscow, 20/1 King Maker.
This should be a 4 horse race for 2 places as there is a clear outsider.
155 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Wayward Prince, 5/1 Aberdale, Quentin Collonges, 9/1 Arkose, 10/1 Baddam, 12/1 Brightwell, Costa Courta, 20/1 Pheidias, 25/1 Outlaw Tom, 66/1 Ramborob.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This is by no means a penalty kick for WAYWARD PRINCE, with Quentin Collonges also an interesting recruit to chasing and Aberdale expected to build on his recent debut in this sphere, but Ian Williams' Grade 1 winning hurdler still gets the nod. |
Price gapper is now odds on here - how will this grade 1 winning hurdler take to the chase fences?
7 horses now and 3 places still on Betfair. Only 4 under 16/1 so it is a matter of a clear round for an obviously good jumper.
230 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mossley, 11/4 Harvest Song, 15/2 Keep Talking, 8/1 Hoback Junction, 11/1 See You Jack, 33/1 Colonel Alf, 100/1 Frankie Falco, Kilbready Star, Northwold, 150/1 Be Back In Time, Dareios, Lindengrove, Penny King, Winbury,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Harvest Song is not opposed lightly after his commanding win at Fontwell but may find it hard to concede a penalty to Nicky Henderson's exciting hurdling debutant MOSSLEY. |
4 only under 25/1 here in another novice hurdles event - we seem to be meeting debutants today. Mossley has the assistance of McCoy but has not been over hurdles in a racing environment. Only won a bumper ( flat race)
Probability wise, a clear round should see him in the first 3 but it is a case of "potential" rather than any real proven form.
245 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Obligation, 11/4 Banksters Bonus, 8/1 Tiz The Shot, 10/1 Printmaker, 50/1 Invincible Don.
O'Brien market leader in a listed race must always be accounted for. Tiz the shot may be a market mover.
255 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dare To Doubt, 100/30 Model County Lass, 8/1 Knockraha Lad, 10/1 Medical Card, Tistobesure, 12/1 Derinlaur, 14/1 Ahsurelookit, Career Move, She Will Return, Waltzing Tornado, 16/1 Margie´s Man, 20/1 Evesham Star, 25/1 A Better Excuse, Chancy Lady, Foildubh, Lovely Sight, Sliabh Rua, Under The Radar, 33/1 Andrea´s Answer, Gilheany, Whitty´s Choice.
Walsh/Mullins fav here hardened into evens. Another hurdles debutant as is the case generally today.
405 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Amuse Me, 4/1 Slam, 5/1 Lean Burn, 10/1 Sonic Anthem, 14/1 Carrig An Uisce, 16/1 Chadwell Spring, 20/1 Bromhead, Chalice Welcome, Desert Mirage, Three Boars, 25/1 Mulaazem, Wicklewood, 33/1 Madman, 50/1 Simiola,
| DIOMED VERDICT: AMUSE ME was an easy winner on his handicap debut at Towcester last Sunday and looks capable of defying a penalty. |
2nd and 3rd favourite are non runners which enhances Amuse Me's chances. 4/7 - - - - -10/1 in the price gap in the live betting market. The price gap itself, like Quick Wit's the other day, tells us the market thinks this one will easily overcome the penalty.
McCoy onboard , I only hope he does not succumb as the others have whenever he has been chosen as a one a day bet.
SHORTLIST
It's a tough old day today. Apity yesterday was a non goer.
2pm - Dinamo Kiev v Illychivets - 1.2 - yes 1-1 last time out in head to heads but clear wins in home head to heads - 3-1, 2-0, 1-0 complemented by their home record of WWWDWWW which contrasts markedly with Illyhchevet's away record of DLLLLDL , means Dinamo are likely to win/draw. Illys odds to lay probably too high.
Slight concern with potential for a draw here
155 HUNTINGDON - Wayward Prince is a price gapper here. How will he take to chase fences? The market thinks he will be ok - 1.22 to place
Positives? high class hurdler and proven consistent jumper.
7 runner race and 3 places. Only 4 under 16/1 means that Wayward really has a good probability chance of placing with a clear round.
Negatives - as we saw with Celestial Halo on his chasing debut, these horses are meeting the bigger fences under race conditions for the first time, and one error will be punished.
Not run since April 2010.
230 HUNTINGDON - Mossley is another debutant, and is one of 4 under 25/1 here. A hurdling debutant, McCoy to assist.1.16 to place
405 HUNTINGDON - Amuse me looks to have an excellent probability chance in this race as 2nd and 3rd favourites are non runners. 4/7 - - - - 10/1 is a huge price gap as a consequence of these significant non runners.
1.24 to place is a reasonable price given 2 nearest rivals are out. McCoy for Jonjo O'Neil
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
The watch word today seems to be potential - the potential of Wayward Prince over chase fences for the first time; the potential of Mossley over hurdles for the first time after having won his bumper ( flat race)
The only horse with jumps form in the book is Amuse me, who won his handicap hurdle last time out by 7 lengths.
Analysis of last race "Even after being reassessed, he ought to win again, especially if found a similar race to this." - but there is an element of slight concern in the significant improvement to win easily by 7 lengths last time out when he was 9th, 6th and 7th, beaten 32, 49 and 49 lengths in his 3 races prior to this, the most recent on 6th October.
Was this last run an anomoly? Or the sign of a wily trainer working the handicap system?
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