At Kempton Jaaryah looks a strong candidate but the market will need consultation nearer the off.
*****ONE A DAY - no bet today I'm afraid. Too many niggles and Towcester is a venue really for in running bettors given its hard up hill finish.*****
3 of the 4 under 20/1 placed yesterday and Herostatus didn't. He did not handle Southwell. I did check that he had an all weather run but the unique surface of Southwell is not the same as Wolverhampton.
A real pity.
2pm - Mladost Apatin v Partizan Belgrade - 1.17 away - Serbian Cup and Partizan expected to have an easy time of it.
Last met in 2008 and Partizan won 5 head to heads on the trot.
Mladost has only won 1 of their last 12 matches in Division 2. 3 losses for Partizan ( 2 of those have been in the Champions League) - a 1st team and correct attitude should ensure an easy passage. Very illiquid betting market.
1130pm - Gremio v Gremio Prudente - 1.42 home - away side have only won 1 of their last 12 matches and home side have only lost 1 of their last 11. Brazilian Division 1. IN running and my knowledge of Brazilian Football is nil.
0115am - Newells v San Jose - 1.27 home - I think this is the Copa Sudamericana and Newells are from Argentina and San Jose are from Bolivia.
Bolivian teams generally are strong at home ( with the altitude ) but not good travellers.
Slight concern with Newells that 2 of their last 3 wins have been 1-0.
230 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Be Ashored, 5/1 Red Rouble, 6/1 The Fox´s Decree, 7/1 Mauricetheathlete, Nobby Kivambo, 14/1 Pollen Jock, 16/1 Glacial Call, Me Julie, 20/1 Cilrhiwviv, 25/1 Little Al, That Man Fox, 40/1 Youandme.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to look beyond BE ASHORED who improved again to win on his first start for Tim Vaughan. |
Red Rouble is a market mover into 5/2 - interesting stable.
300 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Micheal Flips, 6/1 Divers, Have You Seen Me, Sonowyouno, 9/1 Classic Fly, 10/1 Kingsben, Le Corvee, 14/1 The Wifes Pet, 16/1 Petrosian.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Classy hurdle recruit MICHEAL FLIPS can make a winning start over fences. |
Michael Flips 10/11 now for this beginners chase at Towcester.
Been running in class 1 and class 2 hurdles and is now in a class 4 beginner's chase. The Racing Post tells us ground is good so should be no concerns there.
310 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Enlightening, 2/1 Lowawatha, 17/2 Albany Rose, 9/1 Lion Court, 10/1 Poppet´s Joy, West Leake Bridge, 16/1 Even Stevens, Generous Pursuit, 50/1 Ace Master, 100/1 Huckle Duckle.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ENLIGHTENING should take plenty of catching if as effective on this slower surface and is taken to see off main form rival Lowawatha, who has to be respected after his sound latest Pontefract second but did run much his worst race on soft ground,albeit upped to 7f. |
Enlightening is Hannon/Hughes and 2nd last twice, but tackling soft ground for the first time , and I suppose Herostatus was a good example of a maiden meeting different conditions and suddenly throwing in a bad run.
340 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Audacious, 2/1 Halfsin, 11/2 Specific Gravity, 10/1 Greyfriars Drummer, 14/1 Glencadam Gold, 33/1 Indian Jack, Makyaal, Mokalif, Royal Reason, 50/1 Kepler´s Law, Night Witch, 100/1 Chillianwallah, Henry Bond.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AUDACIOUS (nap) and Halfsin set a good standard on form and can dominate if handling this much more testing ground. |
IF... handling "this much more testing ground"
2 length 4 behind Picture Editor who was a very easy winner yesterday at 1/12 in soft/heavy ground.
415 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pirate Chest, 7/2 Teajaybe, 4/1 Walking On Water, 6/1 Minsk, 8/1 Exodus, 10/1 Il Boro, Loch Ard, Words Of Wisdom, 14/1 Freedom, Pageboy, 16/1 The High Man, 25/1 Bat Masterson, Courageous Cry, 50/1 Bonnie Acclamation, One Cool Shabra, The Ice Factor.
Pirate Chest for Aiden O'Brien and Johnny Murtagh has form in testing ground.
515 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Don Carlos, 11/4 Choose Me, 7/2 Mount Helicon, 13/2 Mid Mon Lady, 10/1 Buy Back Bob, Gan Amhras, 14/1 Shirley Blake, 33/1 Lisselan Blue Sky.
6 runners now and 3 places. One clear outsider and 5 horses should be running for 3 places.
630 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Twist Of Silver, 2/1 Signs In The Sand, 4/1 Jerrazzi, 8/1 Owain, 12/1 Hammer Home, 100/1 Jamaica Grande, Trojan Touch.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Signs In The Sand looks good when winning his maiden but has twice let down his supporters and preference is for TWIST OF SILVER (nap), who ran her best race last time and could find the race run to suit. |
Should be a 4 runner race for 2 places and dominated by Twist and Signs.
Signs in the Sand, for Frankie Dettori and Godolphin, has run at Kempton last run and is dropping considerably in class from 1 to 5
800 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Jaaryah, 11/2 Buckland, Enabling, 6/1 Handsome Jack, 15/2 Raucous Behaviour, 9/1 Golden Tempest, Malice Or Mischief, 14/1 Borug, 20/1 Deep South, 25/1 Rojo Boy,
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